Le Havre1Auxerre3

HT 0–1Sun 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 15–13On targetOn target 6–6CornersCorners 7–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 04:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Le Havre are last without a league win; Auxerre are 16th and have lost all three away league games.

Either team to win rather than a draw is the broader lean, with a narrow Le Havre home win the likeliest single result. The quoted prices do not reward that: Le Havre at 2.3, both teams to score at 1.65 and over 2.5 goals at 1.8 each ask more than the record supports. Only total corners over 10.5 at 2.05 looks generous.

Context

Le Havre have taken two points from six games and stayed bottom after losing 1-0 at Lille, while Auxerre are 16th on six points after a 4-1 loss at Rennes. The two clubs are among the early relegation candidates, so a home fixture between direct rivals is one of the clearest opportunities either has to move clear. Auxerre have been especially fragile on the road, and local coverage after Rennes framed the away record as a habit the club cannot afford. The counterweight is that Le Havre have produced competitive spells without turning them into points, so the table position does not by itself settle how the match will be played.
- Le Havre stayed bottom of Ligue 1 on two points after a 1-0 defeat at Lille on 10 October.
- Auxerre are 16th on six points following their 4-1 loss at Rennes on 11 October, a fourth defeat in six league matches.
- Both clubs sit in the bottom three, and a local reporter wrote after Rennes that Auxerre's inability to win away must not become a habit.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 04:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Seko was dismissed in the 61st minute at Lille, a sending-off the club confirmed, and the automatic Ligue 1 suspension makes him unavailable for the Auxerre match. He had started in the back three of a 3-4-2-1 at Lille, so his absence removes a regular defensive option from a side that has conceded in five of six league games. Local coverage around the club is already asking who fills that slot, pointing to a reshuffle rather than a like-for-like replacement. The limitation is that Le Havre have changed that defensive unit across the opening weeks, so one suspension may not alter the overall shape.
- Le Havre confirmed Seko's sending-off in the 61st minute of the 1-0 loss at Lille on 10 October.
- He is suspended for the HACAJA fixture, and club coverage is already discussing who replaces him.
- Le Havre lined up in a 3-4-2-1 at Lille with Seko in the back three.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 04:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Auxerre lost leading striker Lassine Sinayoko in the summer and brought in Archer, who has scored in every appearance so far, including the equaliser at Rennes. That record gives Will Still a settled centre-forward and a rare source of goals for a team that has scored only six times in six league games. Le Havre have conceded in five of six matches, so the away side's main attacking threat is directly relevant to how the home defence sets up. The caveat is that four games is a short run and Auxerre remain without an away win, so his individual form has not yet translated into results on the road.
- Archer has four goals in four appearances since joining Auxerre on loan from Southampton.
- He scored Auxerre's goal in the 4-1 defeat at Rennes on 11 October.
- He is level with the Ligue 1 top scorers on four goals after six matchdays.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 04:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Maja's start to the season was held back by visa problems and a shortened pre-season, but he scored a hat-trick in the 6-1 friendly against Boulogne and then started at Lille. Digard's public praise of his work and finishing, reported by L'Équipe, points to a genuine attacking option for a side that had taken two points from six league games. Against an Auxerre defence that has conceded in four of six matches, a fit and scoring Maja changes what the home side can offer in the final third. The counterpoint is that he still failed to convert his chances at Lille, so the upturn is promising rather than proven.
- Maja was delayed by visa issues and a truncated pre-season before making his first meaningful impact against Toulouse.
- He scored a hat-trick in Le Havre's friendly against Boulogne on 2 October.
- Digard said Maja's finishing in training is the most impressive he has seen, according to L'Équipe.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 04:43 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Le Havre or Auxerre

1.30fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 76.9%

−3.9ppshort

Auxerre's away record is poor and Le Havre have a strong recent record in this fixture. Auxerre score regularly and have a reliable finisher in Archer.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

−10.2ppshort

Auxerre's habit of scoring before the break makes at least one first-half goal likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.80fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 55.6%

−1.6ppshort

Auxerre's matches have been high-scoring and neither defence looks settled.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.65fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 60.6%

−8.6ppshort

Auxerre score in every match and their away defence gives Le Havre a chance to reply.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Auxerre's away record is poor and Le Havre have a strong recent record in this fixture.
- Le Havre have scored 1 goal in 4 home competitive matches (0.25 per game)
- Auxerre have 0 wins and 12 goals conceded in 3 away league games this season
- Le Havre have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, including two at Auxerre
- Le Havre are 18th with 2 points from 6 league games
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLe HavreEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Limited first-half scoring from both sides points to a level half-time score.
- Le Havre average 0.125 first-half goals
- Auxerre average 0.667 first-half goals
- Le Havre scored 0 first-half goals at home in the sample
- Auxerre average 0.75 first-half goals away
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been more open but neither side is reliable enough to lead.
- Le Havre average 0.625 second-half goals
- Auxerre average 1.0 second-half goals
- Auxerre concede 2.0 second-half goals away
- Both sides average modest second-half goal totals
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Auxerre's away record is poor and Le Havre have a strong recent record in this fixture. Auxerre score regularly and have a reliable finisher in Archer.
- Le Havre have scored 1 goal in 4 home competitive matches (0.25 per game)
- Auxerre have 0 wins and 12 goals conceded in 3 away league games this season
- Auxerre have scored in all 9 competitive matches and all 4 away matches
- Cameron Archer has 4 goals in 4 appearances
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLe Havre or AuxerreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Limited first-half scoring from both sides points to a level half-time score. Auxerre's first-half scoring and Le Havre's blank home first halves favour the visitors early.
- Le Havre average 0.125 first-half goals
- Auxerre average 0.667 first-half goals
- Auxerre average 0.75 first-half goals away
- Le Havre concede 0.5 first-half goals at home
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or AuxerreEstimated chance80%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Auxerre's matches have been high-scoring and neither defence looks settled.
- Auxerre's last 6 competitive matches averaged about 4 goals
- Auxerre concede 2.0 goals per game overall
- Le Havre's last 6 matches averaged 2.0 goals
- Both defences have conceded regularly in recent matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Auxerre score in every match and their away defence gives Le Havre a chance to reply.
- Auxerre have scored in all 9 competitive matches
- Auxerre have conceded in 7 of 9 matches
- Le Havre have scored in 4 of 8 competitive matches
- Auxerre concede 3.0 goals per away match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Le Havre's home output makes a two-goal haul unlikely.
- Le Havre have scored 1 goal in 4 home matches
- Le Havre average 0.25 goals per home game
- Le Havre have failed to score in 3 of 4 home matches
- Le Havre have scored in only 4 of 8 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonLe Havre under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Auxerre's away goals often come one at a time rather than in bunches.
- Auxerre scored 4 goals in 3 away league games
- Auxerre average 1.5 goals per away match
- Auxerre scored once in their latest away match
- Le Havre kept 2 clean sheets in 8 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostAuxerre under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Auxerre find the net in every match, so Le Havre are unlikely to shut them out.
- Auxerre have scored in all 9 competitive matches
- Auxerre have scored in all 4 away matches
- Le Havre have conceded in 3 of 4 home matches
- Le Havre kept 1 clean sheet in 4 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAuxerre to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Auxerre concede in most matches and their away defence has been generous.
- Auxerre have conceded in 7 of 9 competitive matches
- Auxerre have conceded in 3 of 4 away matches
- Le Havre scored once in their most recent home games
- Auxerre concede 3.0 goals per away match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLe Havre to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Auxerre's habit of scoring before the break makes at least one first-half goal likely.
- Auxerre average 0.75 first-half goals away
- Le Havre concede 0.5 first-half goals at home
- Auxerre's away first-half totals average 1.75 goals per match
- Le Havre average 0.5 total first-half goals per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Modest second-half scoring from Le Havre keeps the total close to the line.
- Le Havre average 0.625 second-half goals
- Auxerre average 1.0 second-half goals
- Le Havre's home second-half totals are limited
- Le Havre score 0.75 goals per game overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Auxerre's matches produce a high number of corners and Le Havre's are moderate.
- Auxerre's last 6 matches averaged about 13.5 corners
- Auxerre concede 6.33 corners per game
- Auxerre's away matches average about 12 corners total
- Le Havre's last 6 matches averaged about 10.5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences allow plenty of shots on target, pointing to a total above the line.
- Le Havre's last 6 matches averaged about 9.2 shots on target combined
- Auxerre's last 6 matches averaged about 11.3 combined
- Auxerre face 7.25 shots on target per away match
- Auxerre average 5.33 shots on target and concede 5.56
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%