Ligue 1Full time

Predictions graded

Auxerre3Angers1

HT 1–0Sun 3 May 2026, 15:15 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges0–30%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 19–9On targetOn target 10–3CornersCorners 4–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 May 2026, 22:27 · Europe/Bucharest

This match sets up as another cagey Auxerre-Angers meeting, with four straight league head-to-heads finishing 1-0 or 2-0 and Angers bringing one of the weakest away attacks in the profile.

The top actionable angle is BTTS No, with Under 2.5 also appealing; Auxerre or Draw is a reasonable football lean, but the price on Auxerre safety markets looks too compressed.

Context

A 2026-05-01 Sports Mole preview described Auxerre as third-bottom and framed this match as a last-chance survival push.
- Auxerre are listed on 25 points after 31 matches, sitting on the relegation-playoff line.
- Angers are listed 13th with a nine-point cushion to the drop, so the urgency gap is materially larger on the home side.
Auxerre goalkeeper D. Leon is ruled out with a thigh injury.
- Auxerre midfielder O. El Azzouzi and F. Oppegard are unavailable, while R. Faivre is listed as questionable.
- Angers attacker H. Djibirin and defender M. Courcoul are ruled out.
- Angers also list midfielder Y. Belkhdim unavailable and C. Arcus questionable with a groin issue.
Auxerre won the last two meetings hosted at this ground, 1-0 on 2024-02-10 and 1-0 on 2024-11-24.
- Angers won the last two meetings hosted in Angers, 2-0 on 2025-01-19 and 2-0 on 2025-11-09.
- The only non-home win in the last five head-to-heads was the 2-2 draw on 2023-08-19.
Auxerre's home sample averages 42.2% possession and 10.2 total shots per match.
- Angers' away sample averages 40.0% possession and 8.8 total shots per match.
- Auxerre produced 0 shots on target in the 0-0 home draw with Nantes despite having 54% possession.
- In recent away matches, Angers had 40% possession at Rennes and 28% at Monaco, reinforcing their low-control road profile.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.36fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Angers' first-half attack has been almost non-existent in the last 10 matches and Auxerre's recent opening periods have stayed anchored around low-event totals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation and stakes strongly favor Auxerre, and the structural home-versus-away split plus positive home H2H psychology make the hosts avoiding defeat the safer result angle.
- Auxerre are unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 listed matches with 1 win and 3 draws.
- Angers are winless in their last 5 listed matches and are 3-3-9 away in league play this season.
- Auxerre won the last two H2Hs played at Auxerre, both by 1-0 scores.
- Venue is listed as unknown, so the structural edge is based only on season home and away splits rather than extra travel or surface data.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAuxerre or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Auxerre's must-win motivation is the biggest edge here, and when combined with Angers' poor away record and the recent home H2H pattern it gives the hosts a narrow lead in the win probabilities.
- Auxerre are 16th on 25 points and on the relegation-playoff line after 31 matches, while Angers are 13th with a 9-point cushion to the drop.
- Auxerre's two recent listed home games were 0-0 vs Nantes and 3-0 vs Brest; Angers' two recent listed away games were 1-2 at Rennes and 1-5 at Lens.
- Auxerre won the last two meetings hosted by Auxerre, both 1-0.
- Angers have only 3 away wins in 15 league road matches this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAuxerreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation and stakes plus structural away weakness still favor Auxerre, but their high draw rate makes the 0.0 handicap a cleaner evidence-based position than the straight win.
- Auxerre have 10 league draws in 31 matches this season, so draw protection matters.
- Angers are winless in their last 5 listed matches and own a 3-3-9 away league record.
- Auxerre have lost only 1 of their last 5 listed matches.
- No detailed fatigue data for the last 21 days is provided, so this line leans more on table pressure and split performance than schedule effects.
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonAuxerre 0.0Estimated chance63%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation and stakes plus the first-half form split both favor Auxerre not being behind at the break.
- Auxerre trailed at half-time in only 10 percent of their last 10 matches.
- Angers led at half-time in 0 percent and trailed in 50 percent of their last 10 matches.
- Auxerre's first-half goal average over the last 10 is 0.8 versus Angers' 0.1.
- Auxerre are 16th after 31 matches and under immediate relegation pressure, while no contrary travel or venue signal is available.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAuxerre or DrawEstimated chance84%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and the measurable tactical profile both lean low-event, and Auxerre's relegation stakes should favor control over a wide-open game.
- The last 4 league H2Hs from Feb 2024 to Nov 2025 all finished under 2.5 goals: 1-0, 1-0, 2-0, 2-0.
- Auxerre home league matches average 1.87 total goals this season from 13 scored and 15 conceded in 15 games.
- Angers average 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded across their last 10 matches.
- Detailed tactical data is unavailable; the measurable proxy is low attacking volume over the last 10: Auxerre 10.2 shots and Angers 8.8 shots per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology, Angers' structural away attack weakness, and the current injury hit to their forward line all point toward at least one team failing to score.
- Four straight league H2Hs since Feb 2024 ended with one side keeping a clean sheet.
- Angers have scored just 26 goals in 31 league matches this season and only 9 in 15 away games.
- Auxerre kept clean sheets in both listed home matches in the recent sample: 0-0 vs Nantes and 3-0 vs Brest.
- Current squad data lists Angers attacker H. Djibirin as missing, and no suspension absences are provided.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The structural away scoring weakness is the primary driver, and the injury picture still leans against Angers creating enough despite Auxerre's goalkeeper absence.
- Angers average 0.4 goals over their last 10 matches.
- Angers have only 9 away goals in 15 league road games this season, or 0.60 per away match.
- Angers failed to score in 3 of their last 5 listed matches, and in both recent H2Hs played at Auxerre they lost 1-0.
- Auxerre goalkeeper D. Leon is out, which lowers certainty, but Angers also have attacker H. Djibirin missing in the current squad report.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostAngers under 0.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Auxerre's survival motivation combines with Angers' structural away defending issues and defensive absences to make at least one home goal more likely than not.
- Angers have conceded 24 goals in 15 away league matches this season, or 1.60 per away match.
- Auxerre scored in 4 of their last 5 listed matches, including 3 at home to Brest and 2 away to Monaco.
- Angers lost their last two listed away games 2-1 at Rennes and 5-1 at Lens.
- Current squad data lists Angers defender M. Courcoul as missing and C. Arcus as questionable.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAuxerre over 0.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The measurable tactical matchup points to limited early control and Angers' very weak first-half attack, which supports a low-scoring opening period.
- Angers average only 0.1 first-half goals in their last 10 matches.
- Auxerre's last-10 first-half averages are 0.8 scored and 0.7 conceded, a combined 1.5.
- Auxerre trailed at half-time in only 10 percent of their last 10 matches, while Angers led at half-time in 0 percent of theirs.
- Detailed tactical style data is unavailable, but both teams' low possession profiles over the last 10, Auxerre 42.2 percent and Angers 40.0 percent, fit cautious starts.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and Angers' lack of early attacking production both argue against both sides finding a first-half goal.
- Angers have 0 percent leads at half-time and score just 0.1 first-half goals on their last-10 averages.
- Auxerre concede 0.7 first-half goals on their last-10 averages and were level or ahead at the break in 90 percent of that span.
- The last 4 league H2Hs from Feb 2024 to Nov 2025 were all won to nil overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance81%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The tactical matchup looks like Angers spending long stretches without sustained territory, and their structural away profile supports a low away-corner count.
- Angers average 3.4 corners over their last 10 matches.
- Angers took only 3 corners in each of their last two listed away matches at Rennes and Lens.
- Auxerre allowed just 2 corners vs Nantes and 3 vs Brest in their last two listed home games.
- With venue data unavailable, the structural case comes from those home and away corner splits rather than extra environmental factors.
BetBugs · Away CornerslostAngers under 4.5Estimated chance61%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L2-0AngersvAuxerreNov 9, 2025L1

L2-0AngersvAuxerreJan 19, 2025L1

W1-0AuxerrevAngersNov 24, 2024L1

W1-0AuxerrevAngersFeb 10, 2024LIG

D2-2AngersvAuxerreAug 19, 2023LIG

Auxerre: 2 clean sheetsAngers: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Ligue 1 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Auxerre Relegation Playoffs	31	5	10	16	27-42	25	LDDDW
13	Angers	31	9	7	15	26-43	34	LDLDL

9pt gap between teamsAuxerre in relegation zone

Recent Form

Auxerre

L2-3LyonApr 25L1

D2-2MonacoApr 19L1

D0-0NantesApr 11L1

D1-1Le HavreApr 5L1

W3-0Stade Brestois 29Mar 21L1

L0-1MarseilleMar 13L1

D0-0StrasbourgMar 7L1

D2-2LorientMar 1L1

L0-3RennesFeb 22L1

W3-1MetzFeb 15L1

Angers

L0-3Paris Saint GermainApr 25L1

D1-1Le HavreApr 18L1

L1-2RennesApr 11L1

D0-0LyonApr 5L1

L1-5LensMar 20L1

L0-2NiceMar 14L1

W1-0NantesMar 7L1

L0-2MonacoFeb 28L1

L0-1LilleFeb 22L1

L0-2LorientFeb 15L1

Squad & Injuries

Auxerre

10 out

Attackers6

Midfielders6/10

×#17

×#22

×#28

×#17

×#22

×#28

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2/4

×#16

N. Buayi-Kiala — Knee Injury

#17 O. El Azzouzi — Knee Injury

#16 D. Leon — Thigh Injury

#22 F. Oppegard — Injury

#28 R. Faivre — Injury

N. Buayi-Kiala — Knee Injury

#17 O. El Azzouzi — Knee Injury

#16 D. Leon — Thigh Injury

#22 F. Oppegard — Injury

#28 R. Faivre — Injury

Angers

8 out

Attackers2/7

×#31

Midfielders2/8

×#14

Defenders4/11

×#5

×#2

×#5

×#2

Goalkeeper3

#14 Y. Belkhdim — Arm Injury

#5 M. Courcoul — Injury

#31 H. Djibirin — Injury

#2 C. Arcus — Groin Injury

#14 Y. Belkhdim — Arm Injury

#5 M. Courcoul — Injury

#31 H. Djibirin — Injury

#2 C. Arcus — Groin Injury