Ligue 1Full time

Predictions graded

Le Havre0Marseille1

HT 0–0Sun 10 May 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 10–7On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 3–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 May 2026, 10:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Marseille have won all five recent meetings with Le Havre by multiple goals, but post-De Zerbi turbulence under Habib Beye makes the match result volatile.

The best value sits in ‘Win Both Halves – No’ (2.25, 41-point edge), Over 9.5 corners (2.05, 11-point edge), and Cards Over 4.5 (1.80, 9-point edge), while the double chance ‘Draw or Marseille’ (1.33) offers a safer, low-margin play.

Context

Last five meetings: 6-2, 3-1, 5-1, 2-1, 3-0, all Marseille wins.
- Marseille scored at least two goals in every match, averaging 3.8 per game.
- Le Havre conceded 19 goals in those five games, failing to keep a clean sheet.
De Zerbi left after a 5-0 loss to PSG; Beye appointed on 18 February 2026.
- Beye's first seven games: three defeats, including a 3-0 loss at Nantes.
- Supporter boos and wider club uncertainty reported ahead of summer changes.
Last five results: 1-1 vs Lille, 4-4 vs Metz, 1-1 vs Angers, 1-1 vs Nice, 1-1 vs Auxerre.
- Le Havre have drawn 14 of 32 league games this season, the most in Ligue 1.
- At home, they have 8 draws in 16 matches, with only 5 wins.
Marseille conceded in 13 of last 15 matches, including 3 at Nantes and 2 at Lorient.
- Away from home, they concede 1.8 goals per game on average this season.
- Le Havre have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marseille's overwhelming H2H dominance and Le Havre's inability to win (5 straight draws) give the visitors a clear edge, though Marseille's away inconsistency and recent instability under Beye temper confidence.
- Marseille won all last 5 H2H meetings, scoring 19 goals (6-2, 3-1, 5-1, 2-1, 3-0).
- Le Havre have drawn their last 5 league matches, with only 6 wins in 32 games this season.
- Marseille away record: 6W 1D 9L, but Le Havre home record: 5W 8D 3L, showing vulnerability.
- Marseille average 1.2 goals scored per game vs Le Havre's 1.0, but concede 1.8 vs 1.3.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarseilleEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Le Havre's draw-heavy form (14 draws, 5 in a row) combined with Marseille's H2H superiority makes a Le Havre win unlikely; the double chance covers the most probable outcomes.
- Le Havre have drawn 14 of 32 league matches this season, including their last 5.
- Marseille have lost only 2 of their last 5 away matches against bottom-half teams.
- H2H: Marseille unbeaten in last 5 meetings, winning all.
- Le Havre home record: only 3 losses in 16, but 8 draws.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or MarseilleEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Le Havre's recent pattern of first-half draws (4 of last 5) and Marseille's inconsistent first halves suggest a stalemate at the break is plausible, though Marseille's H2H edge adds uncertainty.
- Le Havre led at halftime in only 7% of matches this season, trailed in 33%.
- Marseille led at halftime in 40% of matches, trailed in 33%.
- Last 5 H2H: halftime results were 2 Marseille leads, 2 draws, 1 Le Havre lead.
- Le Havre's last 5 matches: 4 draws at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marseille's H2H second-half superiority and Le Havre's tendency to fade late (only 4 second-half home wins) give Marseille a slight edge, but low confidence due to both teams' inconsistency.
- Marseille won the second half in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Le Havre have lost the second half in only 2 of their last 10 home matches.
- Marseille's away second-half record: 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses in 16 matches.
- Le Havre's home second-half record: 4 wins, 8 draws, 4 losses.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableMarseilleEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The pattern of Le Havre drawing at halftime but eventually losing to Marseille in H2H suggests a Draw/Marseille HT-FT double, though low probability due to small sample size.
- Le Havre drew at halftime in 4 of last 5 matches, but lost 2 of those full-time.
- Marseille won full-time in 3 of last 5 H2H after drawing at halftime once.
- Le Havre home HT-FT: 5 draws at HT, 3 became draws FT, 2 became losses.
- Marseille away HT-FT: 3 draws at HT, 1 became win, 2 became losses.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/MarseilleEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team shows the dominance to win both halves; Le Havre's draw-heavy nature and Marseille's inconsistency make this highly unlikely.
- Le Havre have not won both halves in any of their last 15 matches.
- Marseille have won both halves in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: neither team won both halves in any match.
- Le Havre home: won both halves in only 1 of 16 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Win Both Halvesnot gradableNoEstimated chance85%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend of high-scoring encounters (all last 5 over 2.5) and Marseille's leaky defense (1.8 conceded/game) strongly support another goal-filled match.
- Last 5 H2H meetings averaged 4.6 goals per game, with all 5 seeing Over 2.5.
- Marseille's last 15 matches: 60% had Over 2.5 goals (9 of 15).
- Le Havre's last 15 matches: 47% had Over 2.5, but 4 of last 5 H2H vs Marseille exceeded 2.5.
- Marseille concede 1.8 goals per game on average, Le Havre concede 1.3.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With Marseille's defensive frailties and Le Havre's consistent scoring at home, plus H2H history of both teams scoring, this is a likely outcome.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Le Havre scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Marseille have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches overall.
- Le Havre average 1.0 goals scored at home, Marseille average 1.3 goals conceded away.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H pattern shows consistent first-half action, and both teams' season averages suggest at least one goal before the break is highly probable.
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in all 5 matches (avg 1.6 first-half goals).
- Le Havre first-half goals: 0.5 scored, 0.9 conceded per game this season.
- Marseille first-half goals: 0.4 scored, 0.5 conceded per game.
- In 4 of last 5 H2H, both teams scored in the first half.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring H2H trend and Marseille's tendency to concede late, combined with Le Havre's second-half resilience, point to multiple goals after the break.
- Last 5 H2H: second-half goals averaged 3.0 per game.
- Marseille's last 15 matches: 67% had Over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Le Havre's last 15 matches: 53% had Over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Marseille concede 1.8 goals per game, often in second half due to tactical fatigue.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages and H2H history (avg 10.2 corners) support a high corner count, with Marseille's attacking style generating set pieces.
- Marseille average 5.8 corners per game, Le Havre average 4.3.
- Last 5 H2H: total corners averaged 10.2 per game.
- Marseille's away matches average 10.1 total corners.
- Le Havre's home matches average 9.4 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High card averages for both teams and H2H trend of physical encounters (avg 5.2 cards) make Over 4.5 cards likely.
- Le Havre average 2.1 yellow cards per game, Marseille average 2.9.
- Last 5 H2H: total cards averaged 5.2 per game (4 of 5 had Over 4.5).
- Le Havre's home matches average 4.8 total cards.
- Marseille's away matches average 5.3 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 5W

L6-2MarseillevLe HavreOct 18, 2025L1

L1-3Le HavrevMarseilleMay 10, 2025L1

L5-1MarseillevLe HavreJan 5, 2025L1

L1-2Le HavrevMarseilleMay 19, 2024L1

L3-0MarseillevLe HavreOct 8, 2023L1

Marseille unbeaten in 5 meetings4.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Ligue 1 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Le Havre	32	6	14	12	30-43	32	DDDDD
7	Marseille	32	16	5	11	59-44	53	LDLWL

21pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Le Havre

D1-1LilleMay 3L1

D4-4MetzApr 26L1

D1-1AngersApr 18L1

D1-1NiceApr 12L1

D1-1AuxerreApr 5L1

L2-3Paris FCMar 22L1

D0-0LyonMar 15L1

L0-2Stade Brestois 29Mar 8L1

L0-1Paris Saint GermainFeb 28L1

L0-2NantesFeb 22L1

W2-1ToulouseFeb 15L1

W2-1StrasbourgFeb 8L1

L0-1LensJan 30L1

D0-0MonacoJan 24L1

D1-1RennesJan 18L1

Marseille

L0-3NantesMay 2L1

D1-1NiceApr 26L1

L0-2LorientApr 18L1

W3-1MetzApr 10L1

L1-2MonacoApr 5L1

L1-2LilleMar 22L1

W1-0AuxerreMar 13L1

W1-0ToulouseMar 7L1

W3-2LyonMar 1L1

L0-2Stade Brestois 29Feb 20L1

D2-2StrasbourgFeb 14L1

L0-5Paris Saint GermainFeb 8L1

W3-0RennesFeb 3CDF

D2-2Paris FCJan 31L1

L0-3Club Brugge KVJan 28UEF

Squad & Injuries

Le Havre

34 available

Attackers7

Midfielders13

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Marseille

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Marseille

No

Yes

Over 1.5

Over 9.5

Over 4.5

Over 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Le Havre

Marseille

Squad & Injuries

Le Havre

Marseille