Auxerre2Stade Brestois1

HT 0–1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 11–8On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 8–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 05:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Auxerre's strong home head-to-head record against Brest (3 wins in last 5, no home losses) gives them a slight edge, with value on Auxerre to win at 2.63 (+4pt edge) and Auxerre or Draw at 1.53 (+3pt edge).

Avoid goal markets: Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes are overpriced relative to model estimates.

Context

Auxerre are 15th in Ligue 1 with 3 points from 4 matches, one point above the relegation playoff spot.
At home this season, Auxerre have played two matches: a 1-0 win over Nice on 12 September and a 1-3 loss to Angers on 29 August. The win over Nice showed they can defend well at home, but the Angers defeat exposed defensive problems. Brest have been stronger away from home, so Auxerre will need to repeat their Nice performance to get a result.
- Auxerre beat Nice 1-0 at home on 2026-09-12.
- Auxerre lost 1-3 at home to Angers on 2026-08-29.
- Auxerre's home record this season is 1 win and 1 loss.
Auxerre defender A. Tuanzebe made his first start in the 1-0 win over Nice on 12 September, playing between Christ Makosso and Clément Akpa in the back three.
His availability gives Auxerre a fresh central-defence option for Brest, though the coach's pre-debut caution about his minutes means his latest conditioning still needs checking. S. Diomandé had started in the same position in three of the five recent fixtures with available lineups when Tuanzebe did not start.
- Will Still said on 10 September that Tuanzebe would enter Auxerre's squad for the first time and was not ready for 90 minutes.
- Auxerre's official report listed Tuanzebe in the starting XI for the 1-0 win over Nice on 12 September.
- A. Tuanzebe started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- S. Diomandé started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when A. Tuanzebe did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 05:26 · Europe/BucharestL'Équipe: Auxerre availability updatewww.lequipe.fr · 10 Sep 2026AJ Auxerre: win over Nicewww.aja.fr · 12 Sep 2026
Brest are 7th in Ligue 1 with 5 points from 4 matches.
Brest's away form has been solid: they won 2-1 at Le Havre on 5 September and drew 2-2 at Le Mans on 22 August. They have scored in both away games and have not lost on the road. This suggests they can compete away from home, which is important against an Auxerre side that has been inconsistent at home.
- Brest won 2-1 at Le Havre on 2026-09-05.
- Brest drew 2-2 at Le Mans on 2026-08-22.
- Brest's away record is 1 win and 1 draw.
Brest's reported 4-2-3-1 against PSG on 13 September kept Selvik behind Lala, Le Guen, Lloris and Locko, with Magnetti and Chotard in midfield.
The only reported change from the Le Havre win was Giovani Versini replacing the absent Mama Baldé. This selection provides the clearest available guide to Brest's defensive organisation and attacking connections for the trip to Auxerre.
- L'Équipe listed Brest's 4-2-3-1 starting XI against PSG on 13 September.
- The report described Versini as the sole change from Brest's 2-1 win at Le Havre.
ReportedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 05:26 · Europe/BucharestL'Équipe: Brest and PSG line-upswww.lequipe.fr · 13 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have leaky defenses and decent attacking output, making over 2.5 goals likely, supported by recent form and H2H goal trends.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS a reasonable expectation based on recent form and defensive vulnerabilities.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, and Brest's high first-half concession rate increases the likelihood of an early goal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Auxerre's strong recent H2H dominance at home and Brest's mixed away form give the hosts a slight edge, though Brest's unbeaten away record tempers confidence.
- Auxerre won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings, including 3-0 at home in March 2026
- Auxerre home record this season: 1W-0D-1L, with 2 goals scored and 3 conceded
- Brest away record this season: 1W-1D-0L, with 4 goals scored and 3 conceded
- Auxerre last 5 form: WLLL, but the win came at home against Nice
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAuxerreEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Auxerre's strong home H2H record and Brest's tendency to draw support the double chance, with home advantage and historical psychology as key signals.
- Auxerre have not lost at home to Brest in last 5 H2H (3 wins, 1 draw)
- Brest have drawn 2 of 4 league games this season
- Auxerre home games average 2.5 total goals this season
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAuxerre or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half outcomes are mixed, with Brest often trailing but Auxerre not dominant enough to be clear favorites, making a draw a plausible low-confidence pick.
- Auxerre led at half-time in 40% of recent matches, Brest in 27%
- Brest trailed at half-time in 47% of recent matches
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws at half-time, 2 Auxerre leads, 1 Brest lead
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Auxerre's ability to score late and Brest's tendency to fade could produce a draw at half-time and Auxerre win at full-time, though the specific sequence is rare.
- Auxerre have come from behind to win once in last 5 matches
- Brest have lost after leading at half-time once in last 5
- H2H shows Auxerre winning 3 of last 5, often with second-half goals
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/AuxerreEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and decent attacking output, making over 2.5 goals likely, supported by recent form and H2H goal trends.
- Auxerre average 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game in last 15
- Brest average 1.3 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game in last 15
- Combined average total goals in Auxerre and Brest matches: 3.3 and 3.2 respectively
- Last 5 H2H meetings averaged 2.6 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS a reasonable expectation based on recent form and defensive vulnerabilities.
- Auxerre scored in 4 of last 5 matches, Brest scored in 3 of last 5
- Brest conceded in 4 of last 5 matches, Auxerre conceded in 4 of last 5
- Both teams scored in 2 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and Brest's high first-half concession rate increases the likelihood of an early goal.
- Auxerre average 0.8 first-half goals scored, Brest average 0.9
- Auxerre concede 0.5 first-half goals on average, Brest concede 1.0
- In last 5 H2H, first-half goals occurred in 3 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is less predictable, but the combined averages hover around the line, making this a low-confidence lean.
- Auxerre average 0.9 second-half goals scored, Brest average 0.4
- Auxerre concede 1.1 second-half goals, Brest concede 0.9
- Combined second-half average total: 1.65 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede a moderate number of corners, with the combined average slightly above the line, but variance is high.
- Auxerre average 4.7 corners per game, Brest average 4.6
- Auxerre concede 6.3 opponent corners per game, Brest concede 5.1
- Combined average total corners: 10.35
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce and allow a healthy number of shots on target, pushing the combined total above the line, though consistency is moderate.
- Auxerre average 4.8 shots on target per game, Brest average 4.9
- Auxerre concede 5.1 opponent shots on target, Brest concede 4.9
- Combined average shots on target: 9.85
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages sit exactly at the line, making this a coin-flip with slight lean to over due to competitive nature of the match.
- Auxerre average 1.7 yellow cards per game, Brest average 1.3
- Auxerre opponents average 2.1 yellow cards, Brest opponents average 1.9
- Combined average total cards: 3.5
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance45%