CA Nueva Chicago0Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy1

HT 0–0Sun 18 Oct 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges2–167%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 07:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Jujuy travel to Mataderos chasing promotion from fourth, while Chicago need home points to stay clear of trouble.

Chicago have lost only three home league games all season, so they look the more likely side to edge it, though a draw is a live outcome. The reviewed prices — 2.30 on a Chicago win, 1.95 on a level first half, 1.38 on either team to win — offer nothing worth backing.

Context

Gimnasia y Esgrima de Jujuy drew 2-2 with Gimnasia y Tiro in the Clásico del Norte on 11 October after leading 2-0, then sat fourth in Zona B on 55 points, three behind Atlanta and four behind leaders Tristán Suárez and Temperley. With so little of the regular season left, every away fixture carries promotion weight, and a trip like Mataderos is where that margin can disappear. The caveat is that the leading pair also have difficult run-ins, so a Jujuy win would not decide the race; their own run of one win in five is the more immediate worry.
- Gimnasia y Esgrima de Jujuy drew 2-2 with Gimnasia y Tiro in the Clásico del Norte on 11 October 2026 after leading 2-0.
- Guillermo Cosaro and Francisco Molina scored for Gimnasia in that match.
- After the draw Gimnasia was fourth in Zona B on 55 points, three behind Atlanta (58) and four behind Tristán Suárez and Temperley (59).
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 07:33 · Europe/Bucharest
Nueva Chicago entered the closing rounds on 36 points with Chacarita (33) and Patronato (34) beneath them, and Chacarita's final fixtures include a visit to Mataderos. Because the teams below are close, a home defeat to Jujuy could pull a direct rival back into range before the last round. The limitation is that Chicago's safety also depends on results elsewhere, so the outcome here is not entirely in their hands.
- Nueva Chicago had 36 points in Zona B, with Chacarita on 33 and Patronato on 34.
- Chacarita's remaining fixtures included Deportivo Maipú, Temperley and a trip to Nueva Chicago.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 07:33 · Europe/Bucharest
A 14 October preview described Nueva Chicago as badly affected by injuries in its relegation fight, three weeks after a 22 September medical update listed 11 players affected. A reduced pool matters in a survival run-in because it limits rotation and forces reshuffles across defence and attack for a home game where points are needed. The counterpoint is that no confirmed list of absentees for this fixture has emerged, so the exact availability picture remains unclear.
- Nueva Chicago's relegation run-in is being complicated by injuries.
- Eleven players were listed as affected in a September medical update at the club.
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 07:33 · Europe/Bucharest
Jujuy have been far stronger at home than on the road this season, and a trip to Mataderos tests the weaker half of that record.
Jujuy's promotion chase has been built at home: 11 wins and one defeat in 17 home games, against four wins, five draws and seven defeats in 16 away games with 27 conceded. That split matters at Mataderos, where Chicago lose rarely, though Jujuy still average 1.33 goals across 15 tracked matches and can punish a low-scoring host.
- As of the standings fetched on 13 October 2026, Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy had 55 points from 33 league games, fourth in Zona B.
- Their away record was four wins, five draws and seven defeats in 16 games, with 18 goals scored and 27 conceded.
- Their home record was 11 wins, five draws and one defeat in 17 games, with 32 scored and 15 conceded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CA Nueva Chicago or Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy

1.38fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 72.5%

−3.5ppshort

Chicago have lost only three home league games all season, while Jujuy lose and concede regularly on their travels. Jujuy are much stronger over the season and score regularly, while Chicago have managed only 0.47 goals per game.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

1.95fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 51.3%

−1.3ppshort

Both sides score little before half-time, making a level first half the most likely outcome.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

CA Nueva Chicago

2.30fair 2.78

BetBugs 36% · Market 43.5%

−7.5ppshort

Chicago have lost only three home league games all season, while Jujuy lose and concede regularly on their travels.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Chicago have lost only three home league games all season, while Jujuy lose and concede regularly on their travels.
- Nueva Chicago's home league record is 5W-8D-3L with 16 scored and 11 conceded in 16 games
- Jujuy's away league record is 4W-5D-7L, conceding 27 in 16 away games
- Chicago have taken 23 points from 16 home games; Jujuy 17 from 16 away games
- Jujuy won the June meeting 4-0 but Chicago won the last meeting in Mataderos 1-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCA Nueva ChicagoEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.95
The read
Both sides score little before half-time, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Chicago average 0.2 first-half goals for and 0.53 against per tracked match
- Jujuy average 0.33 first-half goals for and 0.67 against per tracked match
- Chicago's last six tracked matches produced 2 first-half goals
- Jujuy's last six tracked matches produced 3 first-half goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side has dominated second halves recently, keeping a level second period likely.
- Chicago average 0.5 second-half goals scored and 0.33 conceded per home tracked game
- Jujuy average 0.71 second-half goals scored and 1.14 conceded per away tracked game
- Jujuy's last six tracked matches produced 7 second-half goals
- Chicago's last six tracked matches produced 2 second-half goals
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Chicago have lost only three home league games all season, while Jujuy lose and concede regularly on their travels. Jujuy are much stronger over the season and score regularly, while Chicago have managed only 0.47 goals per game.
- Nueva Chicago's home league record is 5W-8D-3L with 16 scored and 11 conceded in 16 games
- Jujuy's away league record is 4W-5D-7L, conceding 27 in 16 away games
- Jujuy sit fourth on 55 points, 19 more than Chicago
- Jujuy average 1.33 goals per tracked match against Chicago's 0.47
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCA Nueva Chicago or Gimnasia y Esgrima JujuyEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides score little before half-time, making a level first half the most likely outcome. Jujuy score before half-time more often than Chicago and have the better first-half away rate.
- Chicago average 0.2 first-half goals for and 0.53 against per tracked match
- Jujuy average 0.33 first-half goals for and 0.67 against per tracked match
- Jujuy average 0.57 first-half goals per away tracked game
- Jujuy scored a first-half goal in three of their last six tracked matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Gimnasia y Esgrima JujuyEstimated chance78%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's matches produce very few goals, with a scoring rate under half a goal per game.
- Chicago's 15 tracked matches average 1.53 goals in total
- Chicago's last six tracked matches produced totals of 1, 1, 1, 2, 1 and 1 goals
- Chicago average 0.47 goals scored per tracked match
- Chicago kept 2 clean sheets in their last 6 tracked matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago rarely score, which alone makes a match with both teams scoring unlikely.
- Chicago have scored in 6 of 15 tracked matches
- Chicago's last six tracked matches brought 4 goals in total
- Jujuy kept no clean sheet in their last 7 away tracked games
- Jujuy scored in 6 of their last 7 away tracked games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago have scored at most one goal in every recent match.
- Chicago have scored 6 goals in 15 tracked matches
- Chicago scored at most once in each of their last six tracked matches
- Chicago's home league record shows 16 goals in 16 games
- Jujuy have kept 1 clean sheet in 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCA Nueva Chicago under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jujuy's away scoring average is under 1.5 goals per game.
- Jujuy average 1.29 goals per away tracked game
- Jujuy scored 6 goals across 7 away tracked games
- Chicago kept 2 clean sheets in their last 6 tracked matches
- Jujuy have scored 13 goals in 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy under 1.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jujuy find the net in almost every match they play.
- Chicago have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 6 home tracked matches
- Jujuy scored in all of their last six tracked matches
- Jujuy average 1.33 goals per tracked match
- Jujuy average 1.29 goals per away tracked game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy to scoreEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jujuy concede in nearly every away game and have one clean sheet in 15 matches.
- Jujuy kept no clean sheet in their last 7 away tracked games
- Jujuy concede 1.71 goals per away tracked game
- Chicago scored 4 goals in their last 6 tracked matches
- Jujuy have kept 1 clean sheet in 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCA Nueva Chicago to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jujuy's away games average more than a goal before half-time, while Chicago's are quieter.
- Jujuy's away tracked games average 1.14 first-half goals in total
- Chicago's home tracked games average 0.83 first-half goals in total
- Chicago's last six tracked matches produced 2 first-half goals
- Jujuy's last six tracked matches produced 3 first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals are scarce for both sides, so at least one is likely to be kept out before the break.
- Chicago average 0.2 first-half goals scored per tracked match
- Jujuy average 0.33 first-half goals scored per tracked match
- Chicago's last six tracked matches produced 2 first-half goals
- Jujuy's last six tracked matches produced 3 first-half goals
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's home games produce few second-half goals, holding the total down.
- Chicago's home tracked games average 0.83 second-half goals in total
- Chicago's last six tracked matches produced 2 second-half goals
- Jujuy's away tracked games average 1.86 second-half goals in total
- Jujuy's last six tracked matches produced 7 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance70%

Prediction history

CA Nueva Chicago: 6/8 recent goals projections matched

6 of 8 comparable goals projections involving CA Nueva Chicago matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for CA Nueva Chicago8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Primera Nacional