SV Elversberg4FC Augsburg3

HT 3–1Sat 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 19–29On targetOn target 8–8CornersCorners 4–12

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 18:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Augsburg bring a six-match run of scoring two or more goals to Elversberg, who have one point from their last three league games but have scored in both home league matches.

Augsburg look the stronger side and the likelier winner, yet their 2.5 price to win offers no clear advantage. Of the reviewed prices, a first-half draw at 2.5, a goalless first half at 3.8 and Augsburg to win or draw at 1.55 are the ones with something to offer.

Context

Augsburg coach Manuel Baum confirmed on 8 October that Banks, Steve Mounié and Tim Breithaupt would all miss the Bayern match, leaving Matsima, Bah and Brackelmann as the starting back three. Banks had been a first-choice centre-back, so his continued absence would remove a regular starter from a defence that had just conceded twice. The club has published no recovery timeline, which leaves his availability for the Elversberg trip unresolved rather than settled. Augsburg's back line at the Kaiserlinde therefore depends on the fitness picture, not on a confirmed plan.
- Augsburg announced on 4 October 2026 that Noahkai Banks suffered a lateral ligament injury to his right knee on Germany U21 duty and would be absent for the time being.
- Manuel Baum said on 8 October that Banks, Steve Mounié and Tim Breithaupt would miss the Bayern match.
- Noahkai Kai Daniel Banks started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Abdulay Bah started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Noahkai Kai Daniel Banks did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:53 · Europe/Bucharest
The redevelopment is visible on matchdays: the September win over Bayern was played with a provisional tunnel and temporary facilities while the three new stands are built, and the club competes under a time-limited league permit. Elversberg's promotion means this is the first top-flight season at the ground, so the half-finished surroundings are part of the matchday experience for visiting Augsburg rather than a routine venue. The work is off the pitch, and there is no evidence it affects the playing surface, so any effect is atmosphere and logistics rather than a sporting condition.
- Elversberg play home matches at the Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg.
- The ground is being redeveloped with three new stands and a completion target of spring 2027.
- September's home match against Bayern was played while the stadium was under construction, with reports of a provisional tunnel and temporary facilities.
- The club is playing there under a time-limited league permit while work continues.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Across nine competitive matches from 2 May to 10 October 2026, Augsburg average 2.33 goals and have scored in eight of them. Elversberg have conceded in five of their last six matches, so a visiting attack in this habit meets a defence that has rarely kept opponents out. The caution is the other end: Augsburg have kept only two clean sheets in those nine matches, and Elversberg scored three at home to Leverkusen.
- Nine competitive matches tracked from 2 May to 10 October 2026: five wins, two draws, two defeats, averaging 2.33 goals scored per game.
- Augsburg scored two or more in each of their six most recent matches: 2-0 v Energie Cottbus (22 August), 3-0 v Schalke (30 August), 4-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt (6 September), 2-2 v Bayer Leverkusen (12 September), 2-3 at Werder Bremen (19 September) and 2-2 v Bayern Munich (10 October).
- Two clean sheets in those nine competitive matches.
The run left Elversberg ninth on seven points after five league games, and their last two matches produced no goals: 0-0 at Schalke on 20 September and 0-1 at Union Berlin on 10 October. Both were away; at home they beat Leverkusen 3-2 and lost 1-2 to Bayern. Augsburg have scored in eight of nine, so Elversberg need their home output, not their away form.
- Seven competitive matches tracked from 17 May to 10 October 2026: four wins, one draw, two defeats, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
- Recent results: 4-3 win at Borussia Mönchengladbach (5 September), 1-2 home defeat to Bayern Munich (13 September), 0-0 at Schalke (20 September), 0-1 defeat at Union Berlin (10 October).
- In their two home league matches, Elversberg beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 on 30 August and lost 1-2 to Bayern Munich on 13 September, scoring four and conceding four.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Augsburg hold the better results and a far more reliable scoring record, which gives them a modest edge despite travelling.
- Augsburg: 5W-2D-2L in 9 competitive matches, scoring 2.33 per game
- Scored 2+ goals in each of their last six matches (2, 2, 2, 4, 3, 2)
- Drew 2-2 with Bayern and won 4-1 away at Frankfurt
- Elversberg conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC AugsburgEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
First halves in these games are usually low-scoring and often level at the break.
- Combined first-half goal averages are about 1.25 per match
- No first-half goal in 3 of the combined last 12 matches
- Elversberg first half: 0.86 scored, 0.43 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Augsburg do most of their scoring after the break and finish games strongly.
- Augsburg second half: 1.56 scored, 1.11 conceded per match
- Augsburg away second half: 1.60 scored, 1.20 conceded
- Augsburg scored four second-half goals at Frankfurt
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFC AugsburgEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elversberg score steadily at home and Augsburg concede regularly on the road, so the home side keeps a real chance. Augsburg hold the better results and a far more reliable scoring record, which gives them a modest edge despite travelling.
- Elversberg: 4W-1D-2L in 7 competitive matches, scoring 2.00 per game
- Home split 2W-0D-1L, scoring 2.33 and conceding 1.33 per home match
- Augsburg: 5W-2D-2L in 9 competitive matches, scoring 2.33 per game
- Scored 2+ goals in each of their last six matches (2, 2, 2, 4, 3, 2)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSV Elversberg or FC AugsburgEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elversberg start strongly at home and Augsburg have scored only three first-half goals in their last six games. First halves in these games are usually low-scoring and often level at the break.
- Elversberg first half: 0.86 scored, 0.43 conceded per match
- Elversberg home first half: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded
- Combined first-half goal averages are about 1.25 per match
- No first-half goal in 3 of the combined last 12 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSV Elversberg or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both teams score and concede at high rates, and their recent matches regularly pass three goals.
- Elversberg competitive matches average 3.29 total goals (2.00 for, 1.29 against)
- Augsburg average 3.89 total goals (2.33 for, 1.56 against)
- Last six matches average 3.33 and 3.83 total goals respectively
- Both teams scored in 8 of the 13 combined recent matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both attacks find the net regularly and neither defence has been consistently secure.
- Elversberg scored in 5 of 7 competitive matches and conceded in 5 of 7
- Augsburg scored in 8 of 9 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of Elversberg's last 6 and 4 of Augsburg's last 6
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Augsburg have been consistently scoring two or more and Elversberg rarely keep opponents quiet.
- Augsburg scored 2+ in all six of their most recent matches
- Augsburg average 2.33 goals per competitive match
- Elversberg concede 1.29 per match overall and 1.33 at home
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFC Augsburg over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Augsburg's attacking record points strongly to Elversberg conceding at least once.
- Augsburg scored in 8 of 9 competitive matches
- Augsburg scored 2+ in each of their last six matches
- Elversberg conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Augsburg to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elversberg's home scoring rate makes an Augsburg clean sheet unlikely.
- Elversberg scored in 5 of 7 competitive matches
- Elversberg score 2.33 per home match
- Augsburg conceded in 6 of 9 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSV Elversberg to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
These teams produce at least one first-half goal in roughly three of every four games.
- Elversberg matches average 1.29 first-half goals
- Augsburg matches average 1.22 first-half goals
- No first-half goal in 3 of the combined last 12 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences are relatively tight before the break, so both scoring early is unusual.
- Only 1 of the combined 12 recent first halves had goals for both teams
- Augsburg first-half defence concedes 0.44 per match
- Elversberg first-half defence concedes 0.43 per match
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce most of their goals after the break, making two or more second-half goals likely.
- Elversberg second halves average 2.0 goals per match
- Augsburg second halves average 2.67 goals per match
- Recent second-half totals average 2.17 and 3.00 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance68%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede plenty of corners and their recent matches regularly exceed nine.
- Elversberg average 3.9 corners and concede 5.9 per match
- Augsburg average 4.9 corners and concede 6.6 per match
- Total corners in recent matches average 10.0 and 12.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card counts sit below the line on both teams' season averages.
- Elversberg matches average 3.0 combined cards
- Augsburg matches average 3.0 combined cards
- Red cards are rare but present in both sides' records
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance58%