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Predictions graded

Inverness Caledonian Thistle2Arbroath0

HT 2–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions13–287%

Edges5–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 23:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Inverness's strong home defence meets an Arbroath side missing a suspended midfielder and carrying seven injured players, with the visitors short of goals on their travels.

Inverness should win, most likely in a low-scoring game. Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 and both teams to score: no at 1.73 are the two quotes worth taking; the 1.48 on an Inverness win is not.

Context

Constable was dismissed in the ninth minute of Arbroath's 2-1 home defeat by Morton on 10 October, a straight red for bringing down Gillespie as the last man. The resulting ban removes a midfielder who had started that match and thins a squad that also listed seven injured players for it, so Arbroath arrive at Inverness short of central options. The suspension should cover only this fixture, which limits the damage to one match. Arbroath can cover the position, so the impact is graded moderate rather than decisive.
- Constable was sent off in the ninth minute after giving the ball away to Gillespie and bringing him down as the last man.
- The dismissal came with the score 0-0 and Arbroath went on to lose 2-1 at home to Morton on 10 October 2026.
- Arbroath had already listed seven injured players for that match.
- S. Constable started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Arbroath's absentee list has grown steadily: O'Brien, Magennis, Reilly and Morrison were out by 19 September, Bonnar, Molotnikov and Stewart were added over the following two weeks, and McGill brought the number to seven for the Morton match. Seven unavailable players is a meaningful constraint on a Championship squad, and it coincides with Constable's suspension, leaving the midfield and defensive cover unusually stretched for Inverness. The composition of the list for this fixture is not yet confirmed, and one or two returns would ease the shortage quickly. The claim records the club's stated availability rather than a forecast of the starting side.
- The team announcement for the Morton match on 10 October 2026 recorded S. McGill joining a seven-strong injury list.
- The 3 October announcement named Molotnikov and Stewart as new absentees alongside O'Brien, Magennis, Bonnar and Morrison.
- The 25 September list had already ruled out O'Brien, Magennis, Reilly and Morrison.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Stenhousemuir arrived at the Caledonian Stadium unbeaten and top of the Championship, and Inverness beat them without conceding against the division's strongest start. That is a more meaningful marker than a routine home win and it strengthens Inverness's home case before Arbroath visit. Inverness then lost 2-1 at Queen's Park in midweek, so the response at home is the live question rather than settled form. One result does not establish consistency, so the win is encouraging context rather than a projection.
- Inverness won 2-0 at home to Stenhousemuir on 10 October 2026.
- Adam Mackinnon and Remi Savage scored.
- It was the first league defeat of the season for the visiting leaders.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest
The first meeting this season produced no goals, with Arbroath's goalkeeper making saves from Graeme Shinnie, Liam Sole and Morgan Bates while Inverness were still without a league win. That clean sheet is a reference point for a fixture that has been low-scoring for both clubs, and it shows Arbroath can hold this opponent. Both teams' form has shifted considerably since early August, so the draw informs expectations without dictating them. It remains one match from the opening weeks, which limits its weight.
- Inverness and Arbroath drew 0-0 at Gayfield on 8 August 2026.
- Arbroath goalkeeper Aidan McAdams made saves including from Graeme Shinnie, Liam Sole and Morgan Bates.
- The result left Inverness without a league win in the opening weeks of the season.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 23:46 · Europe/BucharestInverness Courier match reportwww.inverness-courier.co.uk · 8 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.11fair 1.19

BetBugs 84% · Market 90.1%

−6.1ppshort

Arbroath rarely score before half-time away from home.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 76.9%

−9.9ppshort

At least one first-half goal is likely given Arbroath's habit of conceding early away.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

1.48fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 67.6%

−10.6ppshort

Inverness are the stronger team at home and Arbroath have scored only twice on their travels.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Inverness are the stronger team at home and Arbroath have scored only twice on their travels.
- Inverness at home: 3W 2D 1L with 4 clean sheets in 6 matches
- Arbroath away: 1W 0D 4L in the league, 2 goals scored and 11 conceded
- Arbroath have lost 7 of 14 overall and sit 8th with 7 goals scored
- Arbroath are without suspended Constable and carry seven injured players
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonInverness Caledonian ThistleEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Inverness start home games better than Arbroath, who often concede early on their travels.
- Inverness home first-half goals for average 0.67 per game
- Arbroath away first-half goals against average 1.14 per game
- Arbroath conceded two or three first-half goals in recent away defeats
- Arbroath away first-half goals for average 0.29 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonInverness Caledonian ThistleEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goal margins have tended to be narrow for both sides.
- Inverness home second-half goals for average 0.33 per game
- Inverness home second-half goals against average 0.17 per game
- Arbroath away second-half goals for average 0.29 per game
- The August meeting remained 0-0
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness are the stronger team at home and Arbroath have scored only twice on their travels. Both sides have produced tight, low-scoring games, including a goalless meeting in August.
- Inverness at home: 3W 2D 1L with 4 clean sheets in 6 matches
- Arbroath away: 1W 0D 4L in the league, 2 goals scored and 11 conceded
- Inverness have drawn 4 of 14 matches overall
- Arbroath have drawn 2 of 14, and none of their 5 league away games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonInverness Caledonian Thistle or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness start home games better than Arbroath, who often concede early on their travels. Both teams' first-half scoring rates point to a tight opening period.
- Inverness home first-half goals for average 0.67 per game
- Arbroath away first-half goals against average 1.14 per game
- Arbroath away first-half goals for average 0.29 per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonInverness Caledonian Thistle or DrawEstimated chance84%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Both teams' home and away matches have generally produced few goals.
- Inverness home matches: 6 total goals in 6 games
- Arbroath away matches: 9 total goals in 7 games
- Arbroath have failed to score in 5 of 7 away games
- The August meeting finished 0-0
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Arbroath rarely score away and Inverness have been hard to break down at home.
- Inverness kept 4 clean sheets in 6 home matches
- Arbroath failed to score in 5 of 7 away matches
- Inverness kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches overall
- Arbroath average 0.57 goals per away game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness have generally scored at a modest rate at home this season.
- Inverness have scored 4 goals in 6 home matches
- Inverness home average is 0.67 goals per game
- Inverness scored 2 in each of their last two home league games but were shut out by Raith
- Arbroath conceded 7 in 7 away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostInverness Caledonian Thistle under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arbroath have managed just two away goals and face a home defence conceding rarely.
- Arbroath have scored 2 goals in 7 away matches
- Arbroath failed to score in 5 of 7 away games
- Inverness conceded 2 goals in 6 home matches
- Arbroath average 0.57 goals per away game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonArbroath under 1.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness have been resilient at home against a side that struggles to score away.
- Inverness kept 4 clean sheets in 6 home matches
- Arbroath failed to score in 5 of 7 away games
- Arbroath average 0.57 goals per away game
- Inverness kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonArbroath not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arbroath have yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels this season.
- Arbroath have no away clean sheets in 7 matches
- Arbroath conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Inverness scored in 11 of 14 matches
- Inverness scored 4 goals in 6 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonInverness Caledonian Thistle to scoreEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Not every Inverness home success comes with a clean sheet, and some games end level.
- Inverness won 3 of 6 home matches
- Arbroath kept no clean sheets away but scored in 2 of 7 away games
- Inverness conceded in 2 of 6 home matches
- Inverness have drawn 4 of 14 matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
At least one first-half goal is likely given Arbroath's habit of conceding early away.
- Arbroath away first-half goals against average 1.14 per game
- Inverness home first-half goals for average 0.67 per game
- Inverness scored a first-half goal in 4 of their last 6 matches
- The August meeting was goalless at half-time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.11
The read
Arbroath rarely score before half-time away from home.
- Arbroath away first-half goals for average 0.29 per game
- Inverness home first-half goals against average 0.33 per game
- Arbroath have two away goals all season
- The August meeting was goalless at half-time
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals in these sides' relevant matches have usually stayed under two.
- Inverness home second-half goals: 0.33 for and 0.17 against per game
- Arbroath away second-half goals: 0.29 for and 1.0 against per game
- Inverness home second-half total is 0.5 goals per game
- The August meeting was 0-0
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance75%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

D0-0ArbroathvInverness CTAug 8, 2026CHA

L3-0Inverness CTvArbroathApr 26, 2025LEA

L3-0ArbroathvInverness CTFeb 8, 2025LEA

W0-2Inverness CTvArbroathDec 14, 2024LEA

L1-0ArbroathvInverness CTOct 5, 2024LEA

Inverness Caledonian Thistle: 2 clean sheetsArbroath: 4 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Inverness Caledonian Thistle	9	3	4	2	11-9	13	WWDWL
8	Arbroath	10	3	2	5	7-15	11	LLWLL

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

L1-2Queen's ParkOct 13CHA

W2-0StenhousemuirOct 10CHA

W2-0MortonSep 25CHA

D2-2LivingstonSep 19CHA

W3-1Ayr UtdSep 12CHA

L0-2Raith RoversSep 5CHA

L1-3StenhousemuirAug 29CHA

D1-1PartickAug 21CHA

L2-6Heart Of MidlothianAug 16LEA

D0-0ArbroathAug 8CHA

D0-0DunfermlineAug 1CHA

W1-0MortonJul 25LEA

W1-0ST JohnstoneJul 21LEA

W2-0Linlithgow RoseJul 18LEA

W4-1Cove RangersJul 7FRI

Arbroath

L1-2MortonOct 10CHA

L0-3PartickOct 3CHA

W2-1Queen's ParkSep 25CHA

L0-1StenhousemuirSep 19CHA

L0-4Raith RoversSep 12CHA

D1-1DunfermlineSep 5CHA

W1-0LivingstonAug 29CHA

W2-1MortonAug 22CHA

D0-0Inverness CTAug 8CHA

L0-2Ayr UtdAug 1CHA

W1-0Stirling AlbionJul 25LEA

L0-2MontroseJul 21LEA

L0-3Dundee UtdJul 18LEA

L1-2Heart Of MidlothianJul 14FRI

W2-1SpartansJul 11LEA

Squad & Injuries

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

22 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Arbroath

25 available

Attackers4

Midfielders13

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2