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Predictions graded

Inverness Caledonian Thistle2Greenock Morton0

HT 1–0Fri 25 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 23:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Inverness are eighth but have drawn four of seven league games and not won at home, while Morton are bottom and winless in 14 competitive matches.

A low-scoring game with Inverness avoiding defeat is the most likely shape, yet Morton have scored in four of their last six. The quoted prices that offer value are the draw or a Morton win at 3.0, Morton to win at 7.5, and Under 2.5 goals at 2.0; no both-teams-score at 1.67 does not offer value.

Context

Morton can least afford to lose regulars from a squad already short of goals, and this report lands two days before a Friday night trip to the Highlands. The post does not name the players involved and the club has published no injury bulletin of its own, so the practical effect on Ian Murray's selection cannot be pinned down. The value is the uncertainty: Morton's XI for Friday should be treated as genuinely open.
- The Greenock Telegraph's Morton reporter posted on 23 September: 'Injury doubts for Morton boss Ian Murray ahead of Friday's trip to Inverness.'
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:52 · Europe/Bucharest
Murray's own framing sets this fixture up as part of a survival campaign rather than a night to be judged on style, which is unusual context for a Friday away game against a mid-table rival. The same reporting points to an unusually young Morton XI, so the level Inverness face can vary sharply with who is available. Both anchors date from mid-September and Morton have since added a striker, so the picture is still moving.
- Football Park Scotland reported on 12 September that Morton were without a win in ten games in all competitions, naming an average XI of 24.9 that included five under-21 players in a 4-1 defeat by Livingston.
- Before that match, Ian Murray said his 'mindset's kind of shifted long-term' towards 'gathering enough points to stay in the league for next season'.
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:52 · Europe/Bucharest
Morton's inability to score has been the defining feature of a winless start, so a new centre-forward is a direct attempt to change how they attack rather than squad padding. The deal only runs to January, which suggests a short-term fix while the club looks at a longer plan. One appearance says little about Friday's role, and the sourcing is the club's own announcement.
- Morton announced the signing of Zach Robinson on 17 September on a short-term deal until January, subject to SFA approval.
- Morton's feed shows Robinson being replaced on 58 minutes in the 19 September home defeat to Dunfermline.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:52 · Europe/Bucharest
Inverness have spent the opening weeks without a settled centre-forward, and Stewart is a target the club chased for six months rather than a late market pick-up. His arrival only matters for Friday if Kellacher uses him straight away, which the club has not signalled. The move was also announced subject to clearance, so the paperwork position is worth watching.
- Inverness announced on 18 September the signing of striker Layton Stewart until the end of the season, subject to Scottish FA and international clearance.
- The Press and Journal reported on 20 September that Caley Thistle had waited six months to get the deal done.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:52 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Inverness have the stronger league record and won the July meeting between the sides.
- Inverness are 8th with 1 win, 4 draws and 2 losses from 7 league games (7 points)
- Morton are bottom with 1 point from 7 (0 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses, 4 scored, 13 conceded)
- Morton have no win in 14 competitive matches this season
- Inverness won 1-0 at Morton in the League Cup on 25 July
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonInverness Caledonian ThistleEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half goals are scarce for both teams, especially for Morton.
- Inverness average 0.55 first-half goals; Morton average 0.07 first-half goals
- Morton have conceded 0.71 first-half goals per game
- Morton have scored once before half-time in their last 6 matches
- Half-time is level in the large majority of low-scoring first halves
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams do much of their scoring after the break, which keeps the second half tight.
- Inverness's matches average 1.45 combined second-half goals; Morton's average 1.36
- Morton have a second-half goal difference of -11 across 14 competitive matches
- Inverness have conceded 9 second-half goals in 11 competitive matches
- Morton have conceded 15 second-half goals in 14 competitive matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness have the stronger league record and won the July meeting between the sides. Inverness's drawing habit and low home scoring make a level result a strong possibility.
- Inverness are 8th with 1 win, 4 draws and 2 losses from 7 league games (7 points)
- Morton are bottom with 1 point from 7 (0 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses, 4 scored, 13 conceded)
- Inverness have drawn 4 of their 7 league games
- Inverness's three home league games produced 2 draws and 1 defeat
BetBugs · Double ChancewonInverness Caledonian Thistle or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness are far likelier than Morton to score before the break. First-half goals are scarce for both teams, especially for Morton.
- Inverness average 0.55 first-half goals for and 0.55 against
- Morton average 0.07 first-half goals
- Inverness average 0.55 first-half goals; Morton average 0.07 first-half goals
- Morton have conceded 0.71 first-half goals per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonInverness Caledonian Thistle or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
The season averages and Inverness's low-scoring home games point to fewer than three goals.
- Inverness average 2.55 goals per competitive game (1.18 for, 1.36 against)
- Morton average 2.15 goals per competitive game (0.36 for, 1.79 against)
- Inverness's four home matches averaged 1.25 total goals
- Inverness have scored 1 goal in 3 home league games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Morton's season-long scoring output is very low and Inverness keep clean sheets in roughly half their games.
- Morton have failed to score in 9 of 14 competitive matches
- Morton average 0.36 goals per competitive game
- Inverness kept 5 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Inverness kept 2 clean sheets in 4 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness's home scoring has been thin, with only two goals in four home matches.
- Inverness average 1.18 goals per competitive game
- Inverness have scored 1 goal in 3 home league games
- Inverness scored 2 goals across 4 home matches
- Morton have conceded 5 goals in 3 away league games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostInverness Caledonian Thistle under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Morton's scoring has stayed at one goal or fewer in almost every match this season.
- Morton have scored 4 goals in 7 league games
- Morton have not scored twice in any of their last 6 matches
- Morton average 0.36 goals per competitive game
- Morton's away league record is 2 goals in 3 games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGreenock Morton under 1.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness's recent record shows they are conceding in nearly every game.
- Inverness have no clean sheet in their last 6 matches
- Morton scored in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Inverness have conceded in 6 straight games
- Morton have scored 4 goals in their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGreenock Morton to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Morton's defence has conceded in almost every game this season.
- Morton have conceded 13 goals in 7 league games
- Morton have conceded in each of their last 6 matches
- Morton conceded 4 at home to Livingston on 11 September
- Inverness have scored in 8 of their 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonInverness Caledonian Thistle to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness have conceded before half-time in six straight games and their matches rarely reach the break goalless.
- All of Inverness's last 6 matches produced at least one first-half goal
- Inverness's last 6 matches averaged 1.33 first-half goals
- Morton have conceded a first-half goal in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Morton's last 6 matches averaged 1.0 first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides rarely score in the opening period, and Morton almost never do.
- Morton have scored one first-half goal in their last 6 matches
- Inverness have scored 2 first-half goals in their last 6 matches
- Morton average 0.07 first-half goals
- Inverness average 0.55 first-half goals
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance89%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals in these teams' games sit near the line, giving a slight lean to under 1.5.
- Inverness's 11 competitive matches produced 16 second-half goals (1.45 per game)
- Morton's 14 competitive matches produced 19 second-half goals (1.36 per game)
- Morton's last 6 matches produced 7 second-half goals
- Inverness have scored 4 second-half goals in 11 competitive matches...
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The small corner samples point to a total close to the line with a slight lean above.
- Inverness's two tracked matches averaged 6 total corners (4 for, 2 against)
- Morton's one tracked match had 4 corners, 2 each
- Corner data covers only three matches in total
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W0-1MortonvInverness CTJul 25, 2026LEA

L3-1Inverness CTvMortonMay 3, 2024CHA

W0-2MortonvInverness CTMar 2, 2024CHA

D0-0Inverness CTvMortonDec 30, 2023CHA

L2-1MortonvInverness CTDec 12, 2023CHA

Inverness Caledonian Thistle: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Inverness Caledonian Thistle	7	1	4	2	7-9	7	DWLLD
10	Greenock Morton Relegation - League One	7	0	1	6	4-13	1	LLLDL

6pt gap between teamsGreenock Morton in relegation zone

Recent Form

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

D2-2LivingstonSep 19CHA

W3-1Ayr UtdSep 12CHA

L0-2Raith RoversSep 5CHA

L1-3StenhousemuirAug 29CHA

D1-1PartickAug 21CHA

L2-6Heart Of MidlothianAug 16LEA

D0-0ArbroathAug 8CHA

D0-0DunfermlineAug 1CHA

W1-0MortonJul 25LEA

W1-0ST JohnstoneJul 21LEA

W2-0Linlithgow RoseJul 18LEA

W4-1Cove RangersJul 7FRI

L0-4Ross CountyJul 4FRI

L1-2Forres MechanicsJul 3FRI

W3-1ClachnacuddinJun 27FRI

Greenock Morton

L0-1DunfermlineSep 19CHA

L1-4LivingstonSep 11CHA

L1-2Queen's ParkSep 5CHA

D1-1Ayr UtdAug 29CHA

L1-2ArbroathAug 22CHA

L0-2StenhousemuirAug 8CHA

L0-1PartickAug 1CHA

L0-1Inverness CTJul 25LEA

L0-3ST JohnstoneJul 18LEA

L0-2East FifeJul 14LEA

L0-1Linlithgow RoseJul 11LEA

D0-0StranraerJul 4FRI

D1-1Airdrie UnitedMay 1CHA

L0-4Ross CountyApr 25CHA

D0-0Queen's ParkApr 18CHA

Squad & Injuries

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

21 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Greenock Morton

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Greenock Morton

Greenock Morton

Under 2.5

No

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 9 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

Greenock Morton

Squad & Injuries

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

Greenock Morton