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Predictions graded

Arbroath2Queens Park1

HT 2–0Fri 25 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–654%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 23:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Arbroath are unbeaten at home in the league but have scored twice there in three games; Queen's Park have no away league goals at all.

A tight, low-scoring night with a level first half is the likeliest shape. Four prices hold appeal: the first half to end level at 2.1, both teams not to score at 1.7, no first-half goal for either side at 1.14, and under 2.5 goals at 1.62. Arbroath to win at 1.8 asks more than their form supports.

Context

Arbroath have won the last two meetings staged at Gayfield.
That 1-0 in March 2026 is the tightest of the recent meetings between the clubs and fits the reading that Friday's game could turn on a single goal. It was also the only one of the last five head-to-heads to finish with fewer than three goals, so the head-to-head history and the low-scoring case pull in different directions.
- Arbroath 1-0 Queen's Park at Gayfield on 21 March 2026 in the Championship.
- The five meetings listed between the clubs run from 27 April 2024 to 21 March 2026.
Queen's Park's six away matches since 1 May 2026 have produced three goals in total, none of them before the interval. That record sits behind the price on the first half ending level at Gayfield. The counterpoint is the sample: six matches is thin, and Queen's Park kept clean sheets in two of them.
- Queen's Park's away split covers six matches from 1 May to 12 September 2026: one win, two draws, three defeats, three goals scored and four conceded.
- Their first-half goals-for average across those six matches is 0.00.
Those five home matches also brought no first-half goal for Arbroath, so their home games have been settled late or not at all. That supports the expectation of a tight, low-scoring night at Gayfield. The same record, though, describes a side that creates little as much as one that defends well.
- Arbroath's home split covers five matches from 21 July to 5 September 2026: two wins, two draws, one defeat, three goals scored and two conceded.
- They kept three clean sheets and scored no first-half goals across those five matches.
The club only published this preview on the afternoon before matchweek, so no confirmed team selection, injury bulletin or probable XI has been circulated by the host club yet. Because the fixture is staged on Friday evening rather than the usual Championship Saturday, both squads face a shorter turnaround than a standard weekend round would normally allow. Gayfield's exposed, compact pitch also tends to reward direct, high-tempo play, which is the setting the preview itself sets up. Treat the published stadium and kickoff framing as settled, but nothing about either starting line-up is yet established.
- Arbroath FC's match preview posted 23 September 2026 reads: "It's Friday night football at Gayfield this week as Queen's Park come to town."
- The same post carries the club's #ArbroathFCLive, #MonTheLichties and #Fearless tags and separate ticket and hospitality links.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 23:56 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.80
The read
Arbroath's home solidity and Queen's Park's away scoring troubles point to a narrow home advantage.
- Arbroath are unbeaten at home in the league this season: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- Queen's Park have lost both away league games and drawn one, scoring 0 goals and conceding 4.
- Arbroath's overall scoring average is 0.64 goals per game; Queen's Park's is 1.08.
- At Gayfield, Arbroath have won two of the last three H2H meetings, including 1-0 in March 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArbroathEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Both teams rarely score before half-time, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Arbroath have scored 0 first-half goals at home in five matches.
- Queen's Park have scored 0 first-half goals away in six matches.
- Arbroath's overall first-half goals-for average is 0.18 per game.
- Queen's Park's overall first-half goals-for average is 0.33 per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arbroath's home second-half record is stronger than Queen's Park's away record.
- Arbroath score 0.6 second-half goals per home match and concede 0.2.
- Queen's Park concede 0.33 second-half goals per away match.
- Queen's Park score 0.67 second-half goals per away match.
- Arbroath's overall second-half goals-for average is 0.45 per game.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostArbroathEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arbroath's home solidity and Queen's Park's away scoring troubles point to a narrow home advantage. Low scoring rates and home draws make a tight, level match plausible.
- Arbroath are unbeaten at home in the league this season: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- Queen's Park have lost both away league games and drawn one, scoring 0 goals and conceding 4.
- Both teams average fewer than 1.1 goals per game overall.
- Arbroath have drawn 2 of 3 home league games; Queen's Park have drawn 1 of 3 away league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonArbroath or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arbroath could lead at half-time if Queen's Park's early away concessions continue. Both teams rarely score before half-time, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Queen's Park concede 0.83 first-half goals per away match.
- Arbroath have not scored a first-half goal at home in five matches.
- Arbroath have scored 0 first-half goals at home in five matches.
- Queen's Park have scored 0 first-half goals away in six matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonArbroath or DrawEstimated chance86%

Goals4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Low scoring averages and strong home clean-sheet record favor fewer than three goals.
- Arbroath's overall matches average 2.0 total goals; their home matches average 1.2.
- Queen's Park's away matches average 1.83 total goals.
- Arbroath have kept clean sheets in 3 of 5 home matches.
- Only one of Arbroath's last six and two of Queen's Park's last six went over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Arbroath's home defense and Queen's Park's away scoring blank make one-sided clean sheets likely.
- Arbroath have kept clean sheets in 3 of 5 home matches.
- Queen's Park have scored 0 goals in 3 away league games.
- Arbroath's home goals-against average is 0.6 per game.
- Queen's Park have not scored in the first half of any away match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arbroath rarely score more than one goal in a match, especially at home.
- Arbroath's home goals-for average is 0.6 per game.
- Arbroath have scored 2 goals in 3 home league games.
- In their last six matches, Arbroath scored more than 1 only once.
- Arbroath's overall goals-for average is 0.64 per game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostArbroath under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Queen's Park's away scoring is very limited, and Arbroath's home defense is solid.
- Queen's Park have scored 0 goals in 3 away league games.
- Queen's Park's away goals-for average is 0.67 per game.
- Queen's Park scored more than 1 only once in their last six matches.
- Arbroath's home goals-against average is 0.6 per game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonQueens Park under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Arbroath's home defense and Queen's Park's away scoring blank make a home clean sheet likely.
- Arbroath have kept clean sheets in 3 of 5 home matches.
- Queen's Park have scored 0 goals in 3 away league games.
- Queen's Park have not scored in the first half of any away match.
- Arbroath's home goals-against average is 0.6 per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostQueens Park not to scoreEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arbroath usually score at home, and Queen's Park concede regularly on the road.
- Arbroath scored in 3 of 5 home matches.
- Queen's Park conceded 4 goals in 3 away league games.
- Queen's Park's away goals-against average is 1.17 per game.
- Arbroath's home goals-for average is 0.6 per game but they find goals.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonArbroath to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
Neither team scores regularly before half-time, making both scoring very unlikely.
- Arbroath have scored 0 first-half goals at home in five matches.
- Queen's Park have scored 0 first-half goals away in six matches.
- Arbroath's overall first-half goals-for average is 0.18 per game.
- Queen's Park's overall first-half goals-for average is 0.33 per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance94%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are low, favoring fewer than two goals in the half.
- Arbroath's home second-half total averages 0.8 goals.
- Queen's Park's away second-half total averages 1.0 goal.
- Arbroath's last six second halves went over 1.5 in two matches.
- Queen's Park's last six second halves went over 1.5 in two matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance72%

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

W1-0ArbroathvQueen's ParkMar 21, 2026CHA

L2-1Queen's ParkvArbroathJan 31, 2026CHA

W4-1ArbroathvQueen's ParkOct 11, 2025CHA

W1-3Queen's ParkvArbroathAug 9, 2025CHA

L0-5ArbroathvQueen's ParkApr 27, 2024CHA

3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Arbroath	7	2	2	3	4-9	8	LLDWW
9	Queens Park Championship (Relegation)	7	1	1	5	3-11	4	LLWDL

4pt gap between teamsQueens Park in relegation zone

Recent Form

Arbroath

L0-1StenhousemuirSep 19CHA

L0-4Raith RoversSep 12CHA

D1-1DunfermlineSep 5CHA

W1-0LivingstonAug 29CHA

W2-1MortonAug 22CHA

D0-0Inverness CTAug 8CHA

L0-2Ayr UtdAug 1CHA

W1-0Stirling AlbionJul 25LEA

L0-2MontroseJul 21LEA

L0-3Dundee UtdJul 18LEA

L1-2Heart Of MidlothianJul 14FRI

W2-1SpartansJul 11LEA

W4-1BrechinJul 4FRI

W4-0DunipaceJun 30FRI

L2-4ST MirrenJun 27FRI

Queens Park

L0-2Ayr UtdSep 18CHA

L0-2DunfermlineSep 12CHA

W2-1MortonSep 5CHA

D0-0PartickAug 29CHA

L0-2StenhousemuirAug 22CHA

L1-2Raith RoversAug 8CHA

L0-2LivingstonAug 1CHA

W3-1Queen of the SouthJul 25LEA

L1-2AberdeenJul 18LEA

W2-0Kelty HeartsJul 14LEA

W3-1Brora RangersJul 11LEA

W3-1ClydeJun 30FRI

D0-0Annan AthleticJun 27FRI

W5-0Gretna 2008Jun 26FRI

D1-1PartickMay 1CHA

Squad & Injuries

Arbroath

24 available

Attackers4

Midfielders12

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Queens Park

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

No

No

Under 2.5

Arbroath

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 8 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Arbroath

Queens Park

Squad & Injuries

Arbroath

Queens Park