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Predictions graded

Arbroath1Greenock Morton2

HT 0–1Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1127%

Edges1–614%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 17:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Morton, bottom with one point and no win in 17, arrive managerless at a Gayfield where Arbroath have not lost a league game.

Arbroath are the likelier winners, but 1.75 is only marginally appealing next to the goals markets: under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.7, no on both teams to score at 1.8 and under 2.5 at 1.7 all come out ahead. Arbroath or draw in the first half at 1.15 is not worth backing.

Context

Morton's leadership changed nine days before kick-off: Ian Murray was dismissed on 1 October after one point from eight league games and a 17-match winless run in all competitions, with Michael O'Halloran and Gary Miller placed in temporary charge. The caretakers have had one match to prepare and lost it 1-2 at home to Raith Rovers on 3 October, and no permanent successor has been announced, so selection and in-game decisions at Gayfield rest with an interim staff still finding its footing. The counterpoint is that this is the second fixture under the same pair, so any disruption may be smaller than the sacking headline suggests.
- Greenock Morton parted company with Ian Murray on 1 October 2026 with the club on a winless run of 17 games in all competitions and one point on the league table.
- Morton had lost 11 and drawn one of their opening 12 matches, with the squad squeezed by finances and many teenagers in the first team.
- Michael O'Halloran and Gary Miller were placed in temporary charge at Cappielow until further notice.
- Morton's first match after the change, at home to Raith Rovers on 3 October, finished 1-2.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:15 · Europe/Bucharest
The Fighting Fund was created to shore up the club's future and had passed £70,000 in donations, season-ticket money and sponsorship by 14 September. The football by-product is a very young squad: Morton fielded an average XI aged 24.9, including five under-21 players, in the 4-1 home defeat by Livingston on 11 September, and a reporter close to the club described teenagers filling the first team because finances limited the manager's budget. That age profile carries into the Arbroath trip under the caretakers and is the most plausible reason Morton look short of seasoned options at this level. It is background rather than a new development, since the same restrictions have applied all season.
- The Fighting Fund has now raised over £70,000 from direct donations, season ticket sales, donations to the supporters' trust, new sponsorship and player sponsorship, and was established to help support the future of Greenock Morton Football Club.
- Morton named an average XI of 24.9, including five under-21 players, in their 4-1 defeat by Livingston on 11 September 2026.
- The sacked manager was described as restricted by finances, hence many teenagers in the first team.
- Malcolm Offord and friends gave £15,000 to the Greenock Morton Fighting Fund.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Arbroath's team sheet at Firhill on 3 October listed six players missing: Scott Stewart and Rudi Molotnikov after knocks, alongside O'Brien, Magennis, Bonnar and Morrison, and the club has published no fresher team news since. The two fresh losses fall at the attacking end of the squad, with Molotnikov one of the Hibernian loanees added in September, so Arbroath may again have to improvise in forward areas at Gayfield. The limitation is timing: the knocks were new on 3 October and there is no confirmation either player is available, so this is a live selection question rather than a settled absence.
- Arbroath confirmed that Molotnikov and Stewart picked up knocks and joined O'Brien, Magennis, Bonnar and Morrison in the stand for the 3 October match at Partick Thistle.
- A round-up of Championship absentees on 3 October listed Arbroath without Morrison, O'Brien, Bonnar, Magennis, Molotnikov and Stewart.
- On 25 September, Arbroath listed Bonnar's knock alongside O'Brien, Magennis, Reilly and Morrison as injury absences, while still winning 2-1 at home to Queen's Park.
To watchSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Gayfield is where Arbroath's season has held together: they have not lost a league game there, with two wins and two draws from four. The scoring column tempers that, because four goals in six home matches means the wins have been narrow, 1-0 against Livingston and 2-1 against Queen's Park among them. A single Morton goal would therefore put a home win in doubt rather than leave Arbroath room to spare.
- Arbroath home split: 6 competitive matches, 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat, 4 goals scored, 3 conceded, 3 clean sheets (matches from 21 July to 25 September 2026).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Arbroath are unbeaten at Gayfield while Morton are bottom, winless and working under caretaker managers.
- Arbroath home league record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats, 4 scored, 2 conceded in 4 games (7th, 11 points).
- Morton: 1 point from 9 league games, 0 wins in 17 in all competitions, 5 scored and 17 conceded.
- Morton away league record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 2 scored, 7 conceded.
- Arbroath won the August meeting 2-1 at Cappielow.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostArbroathEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Very little happens before half-time for either side, so an even first half is the most likely single outcome.
- Arbroath average 0.31 first-half goals and Morton 0.07 across the tracked windows.
- Arbroath's home split shows 0.33 first-half goals for and against.
- Both teams were level at half-time in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arbroath do most of their scoring after the break and Morton tire into regular second-half concessions.
- Morton concede 1.07 second-half goals per game overall and 1.17 in their away split.
- Arbroath score 0.5 second-half goals per game at home.
- Morton have conceded six second-half goals in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostArbroathEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arbroath are unbeaten at Gayfield while Morton are bottom, winless and working under caretaker managers. Two low-scoring sides and an Arbroath attack averaging under a goal a game keep a tight draw in play.
- Arbroath home league record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats, 4 scored, 2 conceded in 4 games (7th, 11 points).
- Morton: 1 point from 9 league games, 0 wins in 17 in all competitions, 5 scored and 17 conceded.
- Arbroath have drawn 2 of 4 home league games and scored 4 goals in those 4 matches.
- The last two Arbroath home meetings with Morton ended 1-1.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostArbroath or DrawEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Morton's near-total first-half silence means Arbroath can lead at the break without a big attacking performance. Very little happens before half-time for either side, so an even first half is the most likely single outcome.
- Morton have scored one first-half goal in 14 competitive matches (0.07 per game).
- Arbroath average 0.33 first-half goals in their home split.
- Arbroath average 0.31 first-half goals and Morton 0.07 across the tracked windows.
- Arbroath's home split shows 0.33 first-half goals for and against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostArbroath or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals4 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both teams average well under a goal a game, so a low total is the likelier shape of the match.
- Arbroath score 0.69 goals per game and concede 1.46 across 13 competitive matches.
- Morton score 0.43 goals per game.
- Arbroath's four league home games produced 4 goals for and 2 against.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Morton's scoring rate is low enough that one clean sheet from either side is the more likely path.
- Morton have 5 goals in 9 league games and 6 in 14 competitive matches.
- Arbroath have kept three clean sheets in six home matches.
- Arbroath have kept one clean sheet in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arbroath's scoring output has been consistently around one goal, even at Gayfield.
- Arbroath score 0.69 goals per game and 0.83 in their six-match home split.
- Arbroath scored two in one of their last six matches.
- League home record: 4 goals in 4 games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonArbroath under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Morton's away scoring has been capped at a single goal while Arbroath have been hard to break down at home.
- Morton: 5 goals in 9 league games, 2 in 4 away league games.
- Morton scored exactly one or zero in every one of their last six matches.
- Arbroath have conceded 0.5 goals per game in their home split.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostGreenock Morton under 1.5Estimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Morton's blank rate plus Arbroath's home defensive record make a home clean sheet the slightly likelier side.
- Arbroath have kept three clean sheets in their six-match home split.
- Morton have failed to score in 8 of 14 competitive matches.
- Morton's away scoring is 2 goals in 4 league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGreenock Morton not to scoreEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Morton have conceded in every match this season, so a shutout at Gayfield would be out of character.
- Morton have 0 clean sheets in 14 competitive matches.
- Morton concede 1.79 goals per game overall.
- Arbroath scored in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonArbroath to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Either Morton scoring or Arbroath drawing without scoring is more likely than a clean-sheet home win.
- Arbroath have drawn 2 of 4 league home games, often by low scores.
- Morton have scored in four of their last six matches.
- Arbroath average 0.69 goals per game.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.70
The read
Both attacks are close to silent before half-time, making a goalless opening period marginally more likely.
- Morton have 1 first-half goal in 14 competitive matches.
- Arbroath average 0.31 first-half goals per game.
- Combined first-half rate is around 0.5 goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Morton's first-half scoring is so rare that at least one side is very likely to be blank at the break.
- Morton: 1 first-half goal in 14 matches, 0.07 per game.
- Arbroath: 0.31 first-half goals per game.
- Arbroath have kept first-half clean sheets in three of their last six.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both attacks averaging well under one second-half goal, a quiet closing period is the more likely outcome.
- Morton score 0.36 second-half goals per game; Arbroath 0.38.
- Arbroath have scored two second-half goals in their last six matches.
- Combined second-half expectation is around one goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance70%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

W1-2MortonvArbroathAug 22, 2026CHA

L2-1MortonvArbroathMar 28, 2026CHA

D1-1ArbroathvMortonJan 23, 2026CHA

L1-0MortonvArbroathNov 8, 2025CHA

D1-1ArbroathvMortonSep 20, 2025CHA

2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Arbroath	9	3	2	4	6-13	11	LWLLD
10	Greenock Morton Relegation - League One	9	0	1	8	5-17	1	LLLLL

10pt gap between teamsGreenock Morton in relegation zone

Recent Form

Arbroath

L0-3PartickOct 3CHA

W2-1Queen's ParkSep 25CHA

L0-1StenhousemuirSep 19CHA

L0-4Raith RoversSep 12CHA

D1-1DunfermlineSep 5CHA

W1-0LivingstonAug 29CHA

W2-1MortonAug 22CHA

D0-0Inverness CTAug 8CHA

L0-2Ayr UtdAug 1CHA

W1-0Stirling AlbionJul 25LEA

L0-2MontroseJul 21LEA

L0-3Dundee UtdJul 18LEA

L1-2Heart Of MidlothianJul 14FRI

W2-1SpartansJul 11LEA

W4-1BrechinJul 4FRI

Greenock Morton

L1-2Raith RoversOct 3CHA

L0-2Inverness CTSep 25CHA

L0-1DunfermlineSep 19CHA

L1-4LivingstonSep 11CHA

L1-2Queen's ParkSep 5CHA

D1-1Ayr UtdAug 29CHA

L1-2ArbroathAug 22CHA

L0-2StenhousemuirAug 8CHA

L0-1PartickAug 1CHA

L0-1Inverness CTJul 25LEA

L0-3ST JohnstoneJul 18LEA

L0-2East FifeJul 14LEA

L0-1Linlithgow RoseJul 11LEA

D0-0StranraerJul 4FRI

D1-1Airdrie UnitedMay 1CHA

Squad & Injuries

Arbroath

25 available

Attackers3

Midfielders13

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Greenock Morton

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Draw

No

Under 2.5

Arbroath

Arbroath or Draw

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Arbroath

Greenock Morton

Squad & Injuries

Arbroath

Greenock Morton