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Predictions graded

Inverness Caledonian Thistle2Stenhousemuir0

HT 2–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 18:00 · Europe/Bucharest

A promoted side unbeaten in eight league games and top of the Championship visits an Inverness team it beat 3-1 in August.

Stenhousemuir to win or draw is the likeliest outcome, with few goals likely at the Caledonian Stadium. Of the quoted prices, Stenhousemuir to win or draw at 2.0, Stenhousemuir to win at 4.2, under 2.5 goals at 1.75 and both teams to score – No at 1.83 offer something; Inverness at 1.73 and over 2.5 at 1.95 do not.

Context

Stenhousemuir have won seven successive Championship matches and are unbeaten in eight, sitting eight points clear at the top after eight rounds. The run rests on a mean defence rather than heavy scoring: their last six league games all ended in clean sheets, and four of the seven wins finished 1-0. Their only defeat in any competition this season came against Heart of Midlothian in the League Cup on 11 September, and Saturday is their first league fixture in more than two weeks. The streak is the standout story in the division, but the narrow margins suggest the gap to a home side such as Inverness may be smaller than the table implies.
- Stenhousemuir held the longest winning run in the Championship at seven games and the longest unbeaten run at eight, eight points clear at the top after eight rounds.
- Their September league record was four wins, four clean sheets and maximum points.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:59 · Europe/Bucharest2026-27 Scottish Championshipen.wikipedia.org · 3 Oct 2026
The 29 August meeting is the only competitive fixture between the clubs this season and ended Inverness' unbeaten start to the Championship campaign. Stenhousemuir led at half-time, then answered Liam Sole's goal within five minutes to restore a two-goal cushion, so the result turned on their response to Inverness' best spell rather than one burst of scoring. Inverness have taken seven points from four league games since and scored at least twice in each of their last three. One August scoreline is thin evidence for how a rematch will play out, particularly with both squads still being reshaped by late recruitment.
- Stenhousemuir won 3-1 at home to Inverness on 29 August, handing the visitors their first Championship defeat of the season.
- Inverness pulled a goal back through Liam Sole before Sam Young restored the two-goal lead three minutes later.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:59 · Europe/BucharestInverness Courierwww.inverness-courier.co.uk · 29 Aug 2026Caley Thistle Online match reportcaleythistleonline.com · 29 Aug 2026
O'Donnell joined Stenhousemuir from Dundee United in the summer and took the Championship's Player of the Month award for August, a month capped by his two goals in the 3-1 win over Inverness on 29 August. He has since scored the winner against Arbroath and, at 21, is in his first sustained run of Championship football. His threat comes from midfield rather than a fixed striking role, and he was withdrawn after 57 minutes of the 1-0 win at Ayr on 25 September, so his minutes in tight games are not automatic. Saturday is the first chance Inverness have had to plan a response to him.
- Lewis O'Donnell was named August's Championship Player of the Month after Stenhousemuir collected ten points from twelve, a month that ended with his double against Inverness.
- He scored the only goal of the 1-0 home win over Arbroath on 19 September, his third league goal of the season.
- L. O'Donnell started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:59 · Europe/Bucharest
Bavidge, on loan from Aberdeen, reached five goals for the season by late September, including the clincher in the 2-0 home win over Greenock Morton after he replaced the injured Ryan Duncan. He has mostly been used as a substitute while Inverness rotate a large group of forwards, which makes his starting prospects uncertain but keeps him available as a bench option. Inverness have scored at least twice in each of their last three league games. Stenhousemuir's run of clean sheets is the test of whether that scoring form carries into Saturday.
- Alfie Bavidge had reached five goals for the season by 26 September.
- He scored the second goal in the 2-0 home win over Greenock Morton on 25 September, about fifteen minutes after replacing the injured Ryan Duncan.
- A. Bavidge started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- L. Longstaff started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when A. Bavidge did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:59 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 4.20
The read
Stenhousemuir have won seven of eight league games while conceding almost nothing and already beat Inverness this season.
- Championship: 7 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses in 8 games, 12 scored and 2 conceded
- Away league record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 5 scored and 1 conceded in 4
- Six straight league clean sheets; 8 in 15 competitive matches
- Won the 29 August meeting with Inverness 3-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStenhousemuirEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams keep first halves tight, with Inverness averaging well under a goal before the break.
- Inverness first half: 0.58 scored, 0.50 conceded per game
- Stenhousemuir first half against: 0.27 per game
- Inverness's home first halves have produced few goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stenhousemuir manage games after leading and their second halves have often been quiet.
- Stenhousemuir second half: 0.73 scored, 0.33 conceded per game
- Inverness second half: 0.67 scored, 0.75 conceded per game
- Stenhousemuir's recent second halves produced few goals
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Stenhousemuir have won seven of eight league games while conceding almost nothing and already beat Inverness this season. Inverness have drawn half their league games and keep home matches tight and low-scoring.
- Championship: 7 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses in 8 games, 12 scored and 2 conceded
- Away league record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 5 scored and 1 conceded in 4
- Inverness league record: 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses from 8
- Inverness home league record: 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss with 3 scored and 3 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or StenhousemuirEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stenhousemuir have started strongly and were ahead at half-time in the August meeting. Both teams keep first halves tight, with Inverness averaging well under a goal before the break.
- Stenhousemuir first half: 0.73 scored, 0.27 conceded per game
- Away first half: 1.13 scored, 0.25 conceded per game
- Inverness first half: 0.58 scored, 0.50 conceded per game
- Stenhousemuir first half against: 0.27 per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or StenhousemuirEstimated chance79%

Goals7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Both venue splits are low-scoring and Stenhousemuir's recent league wins have almost all been 1-0.
- Stenhousemuir concede 0.60 goals per game; Inverness concede 1.25
- Four of Stenhousemuir's last five league wins were 1-0
- Inverness home league games: 3 scored, 3 conceded in 4
- Stenhousemuir away league games: 5 scored, 1 conceded in 4
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Two of the tightest defences in the division meet, and Stenhousemuir rarely concede away from home.
- Stenhousemuir conceded 7 goals in 15 competitive matches, with 8 clean sheets
- Inverness kept 6 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches
- Stenhousemuir away league record: 1 conceded in 4 games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness have scored once or not at all in most home matches this season.
- Inverness league home record: 3 goals in 4 games (0.75 per game)
- Inverness home split: 3 goals in 5 matches
- Stenhousemuir have kept six straight league clean sheets
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostInverness Caledonian Thistle under 1.5Estimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stenhousemuir's recent league scoring has been a single goal per game in almost every win.
- Four of Stenhousemuir's last five league wins were 1-0
- Stenhousemuir away league record: 5 goals in 4 games
- Inverness kept 6 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonStenhousemuir under 1.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stenhousemuir score in almost every match and have scored in all four away league games.
- Stenhousemuir have scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches
- Stenhousemuir away league record: 5 goals in 4 games
- Inverness conceded in 2 of their last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostStenhousemuir to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness score in most games, though at a low rate at home.
- Inverness scored in 9 of 12 competitive matches
- Inverness home league record: 3 goals in 4 games
- Stenhousemuir conceded in 7 of 15 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonInverness Caledonian Thistle to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness usually find a goal, which makes a clean-sheet away win the less likely route.
- Inverness scored in 9 of 12 competitive matches
- Stenhousemuir won 3-1 in August but conceded
- Inverness home league record: 3 goals in 4 games
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stenhousemuir score in nearly every game, so Inverness are unlikely to win without conceding.
- Inverness league home record: 1 win in 4
- Stenhousemuir have scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches
- Stenhousemuir average 1.47 goals per match
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Both sides' first-half scoring and conceding rates point to at least one goal before the break.
- Inverness first half: 0.58 for, 0.50 against per game
- Stenhousemuir first half: 0.73 for, 0.27 against per game
- Every one of Inverness's last six matches had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stenhousemuir's second halves are usually tight and low-scoring once they have a lead.
- Stenhousemuir second halves: 0.73 for, 0.33 against per game
- Inverness second halves: 0.67 for, 0.75 against per game
- Stenhousemuir scored once or not at all after the break in four of their last five league games
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L3-1StenhousemuirvInverness CTAug 29, 2026CHA

D1-1StenhousemuirvInverness CTApr 11, 2026LEA

D1-1Inverness CTvStenhousemuirFeb 21, 2026LEA

L1-0Inverness CTvStenhousemuirJan 27, 2026CHA

L1-0StenhousemuirvInverness CTDec 20, 2025LEA

Stenhousemuir unbeaten in 5 meetingsStenhousemuir: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Inverness Caledonian Thistle	8	2	4	2	9-9	10	WDWLL
1	Stenhousemuir Promotion - Premiership	8	7	1	0	12-2	22	WWWWW

12pt gap between teamsStenhousemuir leads the league

Recent Form

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

W2-0MortonSep 25CHA

D2-2LivingstonSep 19CHA

W3-1Ayr UtdSep 12CHA

L0-2Raith RoversSep 5CHA

L1-3StenhousemuirAug 29CHA

D1-1PartickAug 21CHA

L2-6Heart Of MidlothianAug 16LEA

D0-0ArbroathAug 8CHA

D0-0DunfermlineAug 1CHA

W1-0MortonJul 25LEA

W1-0ST JohnstoneJul 21LEA

W2-0Linlithgow RoseJul 18LEA

W4-1Cove RangersJul 7FRI

L0-4Ross CountyJul 4FRI

L1-2Forres MechanicsJul 3FRI

Stenhousemuir

W1-0Ayr UtdSep 25CHA

W1-0ArbroathSep 19CHA

W1-0PartickSep 15CHA

L0-3Heart Of MidlothianSep 11LEA

W1-0LivingstonSep 4CHA

W3-1Inverness CTAug 29CHA

W2-0Queen's ParkAug 22CHA

W2-0MortonAug 8CHA

D1-1Raith RoversAug 1CHA

W2-1BrechinJul 18LEA

W2-0Forfar AthleticJul 11LEA

L0-1Alloa AthleticMay 16CHA

W3-1Alloa AthleticMay 13CHA

D1-1Queen of the SouthMay 5CHA

W2-0MontroseMay 2LEA

Squad & Injuries

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

22 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Stenhousemuir

25 available

Attackers3

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Stenhousemuir

Stenhousemuir

Under 2.5

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

Stenhousemuir

Squad & Injuries

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

Stenhousemuir