Bologna1Inter Milan3

HT 1–1Sat 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions13–287%

Edges4–450%

PossPossession 35%–65%ShotsShots 11–17On targetOn target 4–8CornersCorners 2–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 22:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Inter lead Serie A but visit Bologna four days after a European night, with the hosts yet to win at home in the league.

Inter are the likelier winners, though a draw or a low-scoring night is plausible. Bologna to be level or ahead at half-time at 1.73, Bologna to win or draw at 2.40, the half-time draw at 2.50 and over 9.5 corners at 2.05 are the prices that offer something, while Inter at 1.53 and over 2.5 goals at 1.57 are too short.

Context

Orsolini scored Bologna's opener at Lecce and has been the focal point of Palladino's 3-4-2-1 attack, so losing him changes how Bologna attack the right side and who takes dead balls. Reports point to a three-week absence, which would cover the Inter game. The exact length is not yet fixed: he was due for medical tests on 13 October, and only the club or completed scans can confirm the return date. Bologna can still field Cambiaghi, Odgaard and Bernardeschi in the attacking line.
- Orsolini was forced off in the closing stages of Lecce 1-2 Bologna on 11 October with a muscle problem in his right thigh flexor.
- Bologna's medical staff scheduled tests for 13 October, and club reporters expect a stop of about three weeks.
- Orsolini had scored Bologna's opening goal at Lecce, his first of the season, with an overhead kick.
- R. Orsolini started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Bologna changed coach after a winless start, appointing Palladino on 16 September and moving to a back three with a new attacking structure. Four points from his first two games, capped by the first league win of the season at Lecce, have already improved on Tedesco's four-match record. The Inter match is the first time the new setup meets a title contender, and it will test whether the 3-4-2-1 holds up. Bologna have no midweek fixture, so Palladino has had the week to prepare.
- Bologna dismissed Domenico Tedesco on 16 September 2026 and appointed Raffaele Palladino on a contract to June 2029.
- Palladino's first two league matches produced a 1-1 draw with Torino and a 2-1 win at Lecce.
- The Lecce result was Bologna's first Serie A win of the season and lifted them out of the relegation places.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Darmian arrived on 8 October as a free agent and gives Palladino a natural right-sided defender for the back three while Emil Holm is injured. He spent six years at Inter and won major trophies there, so the fixture is a direct reunion with his former club. At 36 he may be a short-term option rather than a guaranteed starter. His versatility on the right of defence is relevant against Inter's wing-back width.
- Bologna announced Matteo Darmian on a free transfer until June 2027 on 8 October 2026.
- Darmian spent six years at Inter, leaving when his contract expired in June, and said he had lived six fantastic years there.
- Bologna signed him to cover the defensive gap left by injured Emil Holm.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Inter's European tie with Club Brugge on 13 October comes immediately before the Bologna match, and Chivu has acknowledged a schedule in which his team plays every three days. Midweek minutes and recovery are therefore part of Inter's preparation for the Dall'Ara. Inter's squad depth cushions the risk: they have had ten different scorers this season and Chivu can rotate without a steep drop in quality. The Bologna game is still four days after the European tie, so any fatigue effect is plausible rather than certain.
- Inter face Club Brugge at San Siro in the Champions League on Tuesday 13 October.
- The Bologna fixture follows on Saturday 17 October, giving Inter a short turnaround between competitions.
- Chivu said his team prepares one game at a time because we are playing every three days.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:53 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Inter have taken points in every league game and carry far more attacking threat than a Bologna side with one league win.
- Inter lead Serie A with 5 wins and 1 draw from 6 games
- Inter's away league games produced 3 scored and 2 conceded in 2 matches
- Inter average 2.5 goals per competitive match
- Bologna sit 13th with 5 points from 6
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonInter MilanEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Bologna's first halves have stayed tight, with both teams often going in level.
- Bologna were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Inter trailed at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
- Bologna concede 0.33 first-half goals per match
- Inter concede 1.2 first-half goals per away match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Inter's scoring is weighted to the second half and Bologna have conceded after the break in five of their last six.
- Inter average 1.5 second-half goals per match
- Inter concede 0.2 second-half goals per away match
- Bologna concede 1.0 second-half goal per match
- Inter scored 2+ second-half goals in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonInter MilanEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna keep finishing level at home while Inter have been hard to beat but not always dominant on the road. Inter have taken points in every league game and carry far more attacking threat than a Bologna side with one league win.
- Bologna's three home league games finished 1-1, 2-2 and 0-1
- Bologna have drawn 3 of their last 6 league matches
- Inter lead Serie A with 5 wins and 1 draw from 6 games
- Inter's away league games produced 3 scored and 2 conceded in 2 matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Inter MilanEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna's first halves have stayed tight, with both teams often going in level. Inter's first-half scoring rate is higher than Bologna's and they have scored early in recent games.
- Bologna were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Inter trailed at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
- Inter average 1.0 first-half goals per competitive match
- Inter scored 3 first-half goals against Parma on 10 October
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Inter MilanEstimated chance80%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Inter's games have produced three or more goals more often than not and the recent meetings have been open.
- Inter's competitive matches average 2.5 goals for and 1.4 against
- Inter's last six matches were 3-0, 2-2, 5-3, 1-2, 3-2 and 1-0
- Bologna's home league games averaged 2.33 goals
- The 23 May 2026 meeting at Bologna finished 3-3
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both sides score regularly enough, with Bologna finding the net in most home games and Inter conceding in four of their last six.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Inter's 10 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 3 of Bologna's 4 home matches in the window
- Bologna scored in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Inter conceded 4 goals across their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna have been held to one goal or fewer in most recent matches against a stronger defence.
- Bologna scored one goal or fewer in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Bologna have 3 goals in 3 home league games
- Jay Enem started 0 of the last 5 fixtures with available lineups
- Inter kept 3 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBologna under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inter create enough chances that a Bologna shutout looks unlikely.
- Bologna have 1 clean sheet in 9 competitive matches
- Inter scored in all of their last 6 matches
- Bologna conceded 4 goals in 3 home league games
- Inter average 6.3 shots on target per competitive match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonInter Milan to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna have found the net in most home games and scored three against Inter in the last meeting.
- Bologna scored in 3 of their last 4 home matches
- Bologna scored 3 in the 3-3 draw with Inter on 23 May 2026
- Inter conceded 3 goals in 5 away matches in the split window
- Bologna average 3.5 shots on target at home
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBologna to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inter rarely combine a win with a shutout, and Bologna usually find a goal at home.
- Inter kept only 3 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches
- Bologna scored in both 2026 meetings with Inter
- Bologna scored in 3 of their last 4 home matches
- Inter concede 1.4 goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half goal rates point to at least one goal before the break.
- Inter's first halves average 1.0 goal for and 0.9 against
- Bologna's first halves average 0.67 for and 0.33 against
- Both teams scored in the first half in 2 of Inter's last 6 matches
- Bologna's first half finished 0-0 in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna's limited late scoring keeps many second halves below two goals even when Inter push forward.
- Bologna average 0.67 second-half goals per match
- Bologna's home league second halves produced 1, 3 and 1 goals
- Inter's second half was 0-0 in 2 of their last 6 matches
- Inter concede 0.2 second-half goals per away match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Inter create plenty of corners and Bologna concede a high number at home, pointing to a busy game on the flanks.
- Bologna's home matches average 5.0 corners for and 5.75 against
- Inter average 6.2 corners for and 3.0 against per match
- Bologna's last three matches had corner totals of 13, 7 and 10
- Inter's last three matches had corner totals of 4, 6 and 11
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent card totals hover around four, with Bologna's home games at the higher end of that range.
- Bologna average 1.67 yellows and concede 1.78 per match, or 3.45 combined
- Inter's away split shows 2.6 yellows for and 1.8 against
- Bologna's last three matches produced 5, 3 and 1 cards
- Inter's last three matches produced 0, 6 and 2 cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance53%