NEC Nijmegen1Levski Sofia1

HT 0–1Thu 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 18–8On targetOn target 9–2CornersCorners 6–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 18:03 · Europe/Bucharest

NEC are winless in five home matches and host a Levski side with nine clean sheets in 15, so this looks a tight, low-scoring night in Nijmegen.

The first half should finish level more often than not, and one goal may settle the match. The half-time draw at 2.3 and both teams to score No at 2.1 are the two quoted prices that offer something; Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 asks more than the record supports.

Context

Tadić started Saturday's 1-1 draw at Ajax and said beforehand he was used to 'clubs that win prizes', adding that 'Ajax was and is my standard' and 'Ajax is still my wife'. NEC supporters answered with a hostile banner in the away end, and reporter Sander Janssen wrote that Tadić later said the uproar bothered him because 'words are sometimes twisted'. It matters because NEC's most recognisable attacker enters Thursday's home league-phase tie with his commitment to the club under public scrutiny, after some supporters called for him to be dropped. He was still selected at Ajax, and neither the club nor coach Dick Schreuder has signalled any change for Levski.
- Tadić said before the Ajax game: 'With all respect for NEC, I was used to playing at clubs that win prizes. Ajax was and is my standard. Ajax is still my wife.'
- Reporter Sander Janssen wrote that Tadić said after the match he was bothered by the uproar: 'Words are sometimes twisted and that is a shame.'
- D. Tadić started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:01 · Europe/Bucharest
Déle Thomas was left out of the Ajax squad for disciplinary reasons, with Sander Janssen reporting that a Thursday return against Levski was possible but not certain, before FCUpdate reported that Schreuder had run out of patience and cut him from the selection. Thomas had started September's Europa League opener at Juventus and the home draw with Go Ahead Eagles. His absence trims NEC's attacking options for a match in which they need a first league-phase point; the club has not published the reason and the length of the exclusion remains unresolved.
- Sander Janssen reported that Déle Thomas missed the Ajax trip for disciplinary reasons and that a return against Levski on Thursday was possible but not certain.
- FCUpdate reported that Dick Schreuder had 'had enough' and removed Déle Thomas from the NEC selection.
- Thomas started September's Europa League opener at Juventus and the home draw with Go Ahead Eagles.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:01 · Europe/Bucharest
NEC's five home matches produced no wins, 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game, yet they found the net in all five. That is why a Levski clean sheet is plausible rather than assured. NEC's own defending is the risk: shipping more than two goals a game at home gives a Levski side that has scored 11 in 15 a route into the match.
- NEC home record 8 August – 20 September 2026: 5 competitive matches, 0W-2D-3L
- NEC home averages over those five matches: 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game
- NEC scored in all five home matches and conceded in all five
Levski's 15-match window produced nine clean sheets and just 11 goals, so their games tend to be settled by a single strike. They also saw both teams score in only four of those 15 matches. NEC found the net in every home match, so a Levski shutout on 15 October is possible rather than guaranteed.
- Levski overall 29 July – 11 October 2026: 15 competitive matches, 9W-3D-3L, 9 clean sheets
- Levski scored 11 goals across those 15 matches
- Both teams scored in only 4 of Levski's 15 matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NEC's home advantage and higher league level give them a narrow edge over a Levski side that wins often but scores little.
- NEC: 2W-4D-6L in 12 competitive matches, 8 scored, 11 conceded
- NEC at home: 0W-2D-3L in 5, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 per game
- Levski: 9W-3D-3L in 15 with 9 clean sheets
- Levski lost 0-1 at home to Salzburg in their Europa League opener
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNEC NijmegenEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams score little before half-time, so the break most often arrives level.
- NEC first-half goals: 0.5 for, 1.17 against per game
- Levski first-half goals: 0.6 for, 0.33 against per game
- Levski conceded 5 first-half goals in 15
- NEC scored 6 first-half goals in 12
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A level second half is the most frequent single outcome given the modest scoring rates.
- NEC second-half goals: 0.67 for, 0.92 against per game
- Levski second-half goals: 1.07 for, 0.53 against per game
- NEC drew 4 of 12 matches
- Combined second-half goals average about 1.6 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NEC's home advantage and higher league level give them a narrow edge over a Levski side that wins often but scores little. Levski's solid defence and strong away record give them a real chance against a NEC team that keeps conceding.
- NEC: 2W-4D-6L in 12 competitive matches, 8 scored, 11 conceded
- NEC at home: 0W-2D-3L in 5, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 per game
- Levski: 9W-3D-3L in 15 competitive matches
- Levski away: 4W-2D-1L in 7
BetBugs · Double ChancelostNEC Nijmegen or Levski SofiaEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NEC's home pressure could produce an early goal if they start on the front foot. Both teams score little before half-time, so the break most often arrives level.
- NEC first-half goals: 0.5 for, 1.17 against per game
- Levski first-half goals: 0.6 for, 0.33 against per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonNEC Nijmegen or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
NEC's games have been high-scoring and their defence is generous, so three goals is a realistic outcome.
- NEC matches average 3.25 goals (1.17 for, 2.08 against)
- Levski matches average 2.53 goals (1.67 for, 0.87 against)
- NEC conceded 5 at Juventus and 3 at home to Feyenoord
- NEC both scored and conceded in 8 of 12 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Levski's defence has been reliable and their attack limited, making a shutout plausible.
- Levski kept 9 clean sheets in 15
- Levski scored 11 goals across 15 matches
- NEC kept 1 clean sheet in 12
- Levski saw both teams score in just 4 of 15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are regularly involved in goals before the break, so at least one is likely.
- NEC first-half total: 1.67 goals per game
- Levski first-half total: 0.93 goals per game
- NEC scored 6 and conceded 14 first-half goals in 12
- Levski scored 9 and conceded 5 first-half goals in 15
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Levski rarely score early and NEC's first halves produce few goals, so both scoring is unlikely.
- Levski scored 9 first-half goals in 15 matches
- NEC failed to score in the first half of roughly half their matches
- Levski conceded 5 first-half goals in 15
- NEC's first-half scoring average is 0.5 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Defensively organised Levski often limit second-half goals, keeping the total to one or none.
- Levski second-half total averages 1.6 goals per game
- NEC second-half total averages 1.59 goals per game
- Levski kept clean sheets in 9 of 15 matches
- Levski scored 11 goals in 15 matches overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side wins many corners, and NEC's recent games have been especially low.
- NEC corners average 4.25 per game
- Levski corners average 4.71 per game
- Combined corners average about 8.1 per game
- NEC's last six matches produced 1-5 corners each
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's low-volume games and modest recent NEC totals keep the shot count down.
- NEC matches average 26.1 shots
- Levski matches average 20.6 shots
- Levski's opponents average 8.8 shots per game
- Levski away shots average 21.4 per game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 25.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
NEC's home games produce enough on-target attempts to edge past the line, helped by a deep Levski block.
- NEC matches average 8.9 shots on target
- Levski matches average 6.9 shots on target
- NEC home shots on target average 8.8
- Levski away shots on target average 7.1
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams pick up cards at a steady rate, and Levski's physical games often pass three.
- NEC yellows average 1.58 per game
- Levski yellows average 1.31 per game
- Levski's opponents average 2.54 yellows per game
- Combined cards average about 3.5 per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%