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Predictions graded

Queens Park2Inverness Caledonian Thistle1

HT 2–1Tue 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions5–936%

Edges2–625%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 20:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Inverness visit bottom side Queen's Park on a two-match winning run, while the hosts have lost four straight league games and scored three goals in their last six.

Inverness look the stronger side, but 1.75 on them to win asks more than one win in four away league games warrants. Three prices offer something: at least one first-half goal at 1.33, both teams not to score before the break at 1.18, and Queen's Park to win or draw at 2.00.

Context

Inverness followed seven points from three games by beating the division's surprise leaders, so they arrive at Queen's Park as the form side against opponents on a four-match losing run. The result shows Kellacher's team can handle the best the division has offered so far. The specific limitation is venue: the win came at the Sarens PSG Stadium, and Inverness lost 3-1 away to Stenhousemuir in August, so their away reliability is less established.
- Inverness beat Stenhousemuir 2-0 at the Sarens PSG Stadium on 10 October 2026, with first-half goals from Adam MacKinnon and Calum MacLeod.
- The Inverness Courier reported Caley Thistle became the first team to beat the Championship leaders this season.
- The Press and Journal reported the win lifted Inverness to fifth place.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:22 · Europe/Bucharest
Crighton is managing a squad in a four-game losing run and altered its training routine before the most recent match, so preparation and availability for this midweek home game flow directly from those changes. The club did not detail what the training change was, and the Raith result did not improve, so its effect on this fixture remains an open question rather than a demonstrated fix.
- Queen's Park said first-team manager Sean Crighton provided an injury update and detailed a change to training ahead of the 10 October game at Raith Rovers.
- Queen's Park lost that game 2-0, a fourth straight Championship defeat.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:22 · Europe/Bucharest
Queen's Park changed goalkeeper for the Raith game, handing David Mitchell his debut in a side that has conceded two or more goals in each of its last four league matches. Goalkeeper is a position where a new first choice can reshape how the team defends this fixture. The stored squad lists J. Wills as the other goalkeeper, and the club has not confirmed who starts at the City Stadium.
- Queen's Park's team news for the game at Raith Rovers on 10 October said David Mitchell made his Spiders debut and that Matty and Carlo returned to the starting line-up.
- D. Mitchell started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- J. Wills started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when D. Mitchell did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:22 · Europe/Bucharest
The absence removed Inverness' captain from the side that beat the league leaders, and the club chose to explain it publicly. Whether the captain returns for the trip to Queen's Park is unresolved, and the reported reason is not detailed in the available posts. It is an open selection question rather than a confirmed loss.
- The Inverness Courier reported on 11 October that Caley Thistle explained why their captain missed the 2-0 win over Stenhousemuir.
To watchSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:22 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.75
The read
Inverness carry the better league record and recent form into a match against the bottom side.
- Inverness are 5th on 13 points; Queen's Park are 10th on 4.
- Inverness have scored 10 goals in their last six matches and won the last two 2-0.
- Inverness have won the last four head-to-head meetings.
- Queen's Park have lost four straight league games, scoring three goals in their last six.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostInverness Caledonian ThistleEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Inverness score first-half goals often and Queen's Park concede early, pointing to an interval lead.
- Inverness led at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Queen's Park conceded first-half goals in five of their last six.
- Inverness average 0.69 first-half goals for; Queen's Park concede 0.92 per first half.
- Inverness's 2-0 win over the leaders came from two first-half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostInverness Caledonian ThistleEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Inverness have been the stronger side after the break in recent games.
- Inverness have scored 7 second-half goals in their last six matches.
- They won the second half in three of their last six.
- Queen's Park have conceded 2 second-half goals in their last six.
- Inverness have drawn the second half in three of their last six.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostInverness Caledonian ThistleEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness draw often enough, especially on the road, to make a share of the points plausible. Inverness carry the better league record and recent form into a match against the bottom side.
- Inverness have drawn 4 of 9 league games, including 2 of 4 away.
- Queen's Park's league record is 1 win, 1 draw, 7 defeats.
- Inverness are 5th on 13 points; Queen's Park are 10th on 4.
- Inverness have scored 10 goals in their last six matches and won the last two 2-0.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Inverness Caledonian ThistleEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Neither side's first-half profile makes an early lead especially likely. Inverness score first-half goals often and Queen's Park concede early, pointing to an interval lead.
- Queen's Park were level at half-time in two of their last six matches.
- Inverness trailed at half-time in three of their last six.
- Inverness led at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Queen's Park conceded first-half goals in five of their last six.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Inverness Caledonian ThistleEstimated chance82%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Queen's Park's low scoring makes a tight, low-goal match the more likely outcome.
- Queen's Park have scored 4 goals in 9 league games.
- Inverness have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 tracked competitive matches.
- Queen's Park have failed to score in four of their last six matches.
- Inverness have averaged 1.5 goals in 4 away league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Queen's Park's difficulty scoring makes it more likely that at least one side is kept out.
- Queen's Park failed to score in four of their last six matches.
- Inverness have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 tracked competitive matches.
- Queen's Park have scored 4 goals in 9 league games.
- Inverness kept clean sheets in both of their last two matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Queen's Park's season-long scoring output points strongly to one goal or fewer.
- Queen's Park have scored 4 goals in 9 league games.
- They scored 3 goals in their last six matches.
- They were shut out in four of their last six matches.
- Their home league record is 3 goals in 4 games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostQueens Park under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness's away goal spread suggests one or none is slightly more likely than two.
- Inverness have scored 6 goals in 4 away league games.
- Two of those four away games produced one goal or fewer.
- Inverness's away league record is 1 win, 2 draws, 1 defeat.
- They scored once in each of their two most recent away league games before the Morton win.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonInverness Caledonian Thistle under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Queen's Park's record points to Inverness scoring at least once.
- Queen's Park have no clean sheets in 6 tracked home matches.
- They have 2 clean sheets in 13 tracked competitive matches.
- Inverness scored in five of their last six matches.
- Queen's Park have conceded 9 goals in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonInverness Caledonian Thistle to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Inverness concede fairly regularly on the road, so Queen's Park scoring is more likely than not.
- Inverness have conceded 6 goals in 4 away league games.
- Queen's Park's home league record is 3 goals in 4 games.
- Inverness's away league record is 1 win, 2 draws, 1 defeat.
- Inverness have conceded in three of their last four matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonQueens Park to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Both teams' recent games almost always produce a goal before the break.
- Five of Queen's Park's last six matches had a first-half goal.
- All six of Inverness's last six matches had a first-half goal.
- Queen's Park concede 0.92 first-half goals per match.
- Inverness score 0.69 first-half goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Queen's Park's near-absence of first-half goals makes two first-half scorers unlikely.
- Queen's Park have one first-half goal in their last six matches.
- Queen's Park average 0.31 first-half goals.
- Queen's Park failed to score before the break in five of their last six.
- Inverness have scored first-half goals in three of their last six.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Queen's Park's quiet second halves make the lower total slightly more likely.
- Queen's Park's last six second halves never exceeded one goal.
- Queen's Park scored 2 second-half goals in their last six matches.
- Queen's Park conceded 2 second-half goals in their last six.
- Inverness's second halves reached two or more goals in three of six.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The small corner samples point to totals below the line, though the evidence is thin.
- Queen's Park's one tracked corner match had 4 corners for and 2 against.
- Inverness average 4 corners for and 2 against across two tracked matches.
- Those three matches produced six corners in total.
- Corner data covers only a handful of matches for both sides.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W0-1Queen's ParkvInverness CTApr 13, 2024CHA

W0-1Inverness CTvQueen's ParkFeb 3, 2024CHA

W1-4Queen's ParkvInverness CTDec 9, 2023CHA

W1-2Inverness CTvQueen's ParkAug 5, 2023CHA

L2-1Queen's ParkvInverness CTMar 18, 2023CHA

Queens Park: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Queens Park Relegation - League One	9	1	1	7	4-15	4	LLLLW
5	Inverness Caledonian Thistle	9	3	4	2	11-9	13	WWDWL

9pt gap between teamsQueens Park in relegation zone

Recent Form

Queens Park

L0-2Raith RoversOct 10CHA

L1-2ArbroathSep 25CHA

L0-2Ayr UtdSep 18CHA

L0-2DunfermlineSep 12CHA

W2-1MortonSep 5CHA

D0-0PartickAug 29CHA

L0-2StenhousemuirAug 22CHA

L1-2Raith RoversAug 8CHA

L0-2LivingstonAug 1CHA

W3-1Queen of the SouthJul 25LEA

L1-2AberdeenJul 18LEA

W2-0Kelty HeartsJul 14LEA

W3-1Brora RangersJul 11LEA

W3-1ClydeJun 30FRI

D0-0Annan AthleticJun 27FRI

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

W2-0StenhousemuirOct 10CHA

W2-0MortonSep 25CHA

D2-2LivingstonSep 19CHA

W3-1Ayr UtdSep 12CHA

L0-2Raith RoversSep 5CHA

L1-3StenhousemuirAug 29CHA

D1-1PartickAug 21CHA

L2-6Heart Of MidlothianAug 16LEA

D0-0ArbroathAug 8CHA

D0-0DunfermlineAug 1CHA

W1-0MortonJul 25LEA

W1-0ST JohnstoneJul 21LEA

W2-0Linlithgow RoseJul 18LEA

W4-1Cove RangersJul 7FRI

L0-4Ross CountyJul 4FRI

Squad & Injuries

Queens Park

25 available

Attackers8

Midfielders7

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

22 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Queens Park or Draw

Under 2.5

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

Draw or Inverness Caledonian Thistle

No

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 9 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Queens Park

Inverness Caledonian Thistle

Squad & Injuries

Queens Park

Inverness Caledonian Thistle