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Predictions graded

Raith Rovers2Queens Park0

HT 1–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions14–193%

Edges6–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 04:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Raith Rovers, second with 17 points from nine, host a Queen's Park side ninth with four points and without an away league win; Raith's 2-1 win at the City Stadium in August is the season's only meeting.

A home win is the likeliest outcome, though Easton's ankle is a doubt and Dowds' fitness is unresolved. The 1.45 on Raith is not worth taking; the first-half Raith win at 1.91, both teams not to score at 1.7 and under 2.5 goals at 1.85 are the quotes with an edge.

Context

Easton was missing through injury for Raith's home defeat by Livingston on 25 September and was back in the squad for the Morton trip on 3 October, where his ankle swelled badly enough for the swelling to be likened to a water balloon. That makes his availability the most immediate selection question for the Queen's Park game, with Raith having managed a crowded treatment room through the opening quarter. No recovery window has been given, so the fair reading is a doubt rather than a confirmed absence, and a reshuffle of the central midfield is the likely consequence.
- Dylan Easton's ankle swelled badly during Raith's 2-1 win at Greenock Morton on 3 October, with the swelling likened to a water balloon.
- Easton had been listed among the returning players for that Morton match, days after being unavailable through injury for Raith's home defeat by Livingston on 25 September.
- D. Easton started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- J. Robertson started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when D. Easton did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 04:33 · Europe/Bucharest
Raith's 2-1 win at the City Stadium in August was their first victory of the season and the clubs have not met since, making it the only direct read on this pairing from the current campaign. The decisive goal came from a penalty for handball against Ricki Lamie, and Queen's Park's goal was Ross McLean's first in senior football, so the fixture turned on a defensive error and a tight margin. It was also played in the opening fortnight, with both squads reshaped since by injuries and selection changes, so the scoreline is background rather than a guide to this game.
- Raith won 2-1 at the City Stadium in the clubs' earlier meeting this season, their first league win of the campaign.
- Charlie Telfer, Ross McLean and Anton Dowds scored, with Dowds converting a penalty awarded for handball against Ricki Lamie and McLean's goal his first in senior football.
- The attendance at the City Stadium was 866.
- Dougie Imrie's assessment of the win was that Raith were very good for large parts of the game and controlled much of it.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 04:33 · Europe/BucharestQueen's Park Newsqueensparknews.co.uk · 11 Aug 2026
Dowds has been out since being taken out of the squad through injury for the Arbroath match on 12 September, and through the last week of the month Raith were still settling whether he needed an operation, with a further fitness update on 2 October. He is the striker who settled the August meeting from the penalty spot, so his return or continued absence changes how Raith's forward line is built for this fixture. No return date has been set, so his status is unresolved rather than either available or ruled out.
- Anton Dowds dropped out of Raith's squad through injury for the 4-0 home win over Arbroath on 12 September.
- Four Raith players returned to training on 29 September, the same day an operation decision for Dowds emerged.
- A further fitness update on Dowds followed on 2 October, three days before the Morton match.
- A. Dowds started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 04:33 · Europe/Bucharest
Queen's Park have not played since the 1-2 defeat at Arbroath on 25 September, because their next scheduled first-team fixture is this trip to Stark's Park, with Inverness Caledonian Thistle visiting Glasgow three days later on 13 October. A fortnight between games is a preparation condition that works in both directions: fresher legs, but a longer wait to act on problems and then a compressed week once the games restart. The gap shows up in the club's own scheduling, which pointed supporters to 24 October for the next home match.
- Queen's Park's most recent competitive match was a 1-2 defeat at Arbroath on 25 September.
- The club had no first-team fixture on the weekend of 3-4 October, with its next home match scheduled for 24 October.
- Queen's Park host Inverness Caledonian Thistle on Tuesday 13 October, three days after this fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 04:33 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Raith are much higher in the table, strong at home, and have recent wins over Queen's Park.
- Raith are 2nd with 17 points from 9 league games; Queen's Park are 9th with 4 points from 8.
- Raith's league home record is 2W 1D 1L; Queen's Park's league away record is 0W 1D 3L.
- Raith have won the last two meetings in 2026, 2-1 away in August and 4-1 at home in January.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRaith RoversEstimated chance66%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Raith start home games strongly and Queen's Park rarely score before half-time.
- Raith average 1.29 first-half goals at home.
- Queen's Park average 0 first-half goals away and concede 1.0 first-half goal away.
- Raith's home first-half goal difference is strongly positive.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonRaith RoversEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Raith are stronger overall and can edge the second half if the game opens up.
- Raith average 0.71 second-half goals at home.
- Queen's Park concede 0.33 second-half goals away.
- Raith have scored in the second half in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonRaith RoversEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Raith are much higher in the table, strong at home, and have recent wins over Queen's Park. A draw is possible if Queen's Park defend well and Raith miss key players.
- Raith are 2nd with 17 points from 9 league games; Queen's Park are 9th with 4 points from 8.
- Raith's league home record is 2W 1D 1L; Queen's Park's league away record is 0W 1D 3L.
- Raith have drawn 2 of 9 league games; Queen's Park have drawn 1 of 8.
- Queen's Park's away league record includes one draw in four games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRaith Rovers or DrawEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Raith start home games strongly and Queen's Park rarely score before half-time. A level first half is possible if Queen's Park defend deep and Raith are patient.
- Raith average 1.29 first-half goals at home.
- Queen's Park average 0 first-half goals away and concede 1.0 first-half goal away.
- Raith have been level at half-time in recent matches against Partick and Livingston.
- Queen's Park have not scored a first-half goal in six away matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonRaith Rovers or DrawEstimated chance93%

Goals9 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Low-scoring recent matches and Queen's Park's weak away attack favour under 2.5.
- Under 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Raith's last 6 matches.
- Under 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Queen's Park's last 6 matches.
- Queen's Park have scored only 1 goal in 4 away league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Queen's Park's limited away attack makes a clean sheet for Raith more likely than both teams scoring.
- Queen's Park have scored 1 goal in 4 away league games.
- Raith have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches.
- Queen's Park failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Raith's home attack should produce at least two goals against a weak away defence.
- Raith average 1.75 goals in league home games.
- Queen's Park concede 1.5 goals per away league game.
- Raith scored 4 goals at home against Arbroath in September.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonRaith Rovers over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Queen's Park's away scoring record strongly points to under 1.5 goals.
- Queen's Park have scored 1 goal in 4 away league games.
- Queen's Park have scored 0 or 1 in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Raith have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonQueens Park under 1.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Raith's defence and Queen's Park's poor away scoring make a home clean sheet plausible.
- Queen's Park have scored 1 goal in 4 away league games.
- Raith have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches.
- Raith's league home record includes 3 goals conceded in 4 games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonQueens Park not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Raith's home attack should score against a Queen's Park defence conceding regularly away.
- Raith average 1.75 goals in league home games.
- Queen's Park have conceded 6 goals in 4 away league games.
- Raith scored 4 goals at home against Arbroath in September.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRaith Rovers to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A Raith win is likely, but a clean sheet is less certain because Raith have conceded recently.
- Raith have conceded in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Queen's Park have scored in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Raith have 8 wins in 12 competitive matches but only 5 clean sheets.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
The first-half numbers from both teams point to at least one goal before the break.
- Raith average 1.29 first-half goals at home.
- Queen's Park concede 1.0 first-half goal away.
- Raith have scored first-half goals in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.11
The read
Queen's Park's away first-half scoring record makes both teams scoring very unlikely.
- Queen's Park have scored 0 first-half goals in six away matches.
- Raith concede 0.29 first-half goals at home.
- Queen's Park average 0.33 first-half goals overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The second-half splits point to a total below two goals.
- Raith home second-half average total is 1.29 goals.
- Queen's Park away second-half average total is 1.0 goals.
- Under 1.5 second-half goals landed in most recent matches for both.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance68%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.45 price requires 69.0%, above our 66.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W1-2Queen's ParkvRaith RoversAug 8, 2026CHA

W0-2Queen's ParkvRaith RoversApr 14, 2026CHA

D1-1Queen's ParkvRaith RoversJan 27, 2026CHA

W4-1Raith RoversvQueen's ParkJan 24, 2026CHA

L2-1Queen's ParkvRaith RoversNov 8, 2025CHA

3 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Raith Rovers Promotion - Premiership (Promotion: Semi-finals)	9	5	2	2	13-6	17	WLDWW
9	Queens Park Championship (Relegation)	8	1	1	6	4-13	4	LLLWD

13pt gap between teamsQueens Park in relegation zone

Recent Form

Raith Rovers

W2-1MortonOct 3CHA

L0-2LivingstonSep 25CHA

D0-0PartickSep 19CHA

W4-0ArbroathSep 12CHA

W2-0Inverness CTSep 5CHA

L0-1DunfermlineAug 28CHA

W2-0Ayr UtdAug 22CHA

W2-1Queen's ParkAug 8CHA

D1-1StenhousemuirAug 1CHA

L0-1Heart Of MidlothianJul 24FRI

W1-0PeterheadJul 21LEA

W3-1Elgin CityJul 11LEA

W4-0Edinburgh CityJun 30FRI

D2-2Hamilton AcademicalJun 27FRI

W3-2Ross CountyMay 1CHA

Queens Park

L1-2ArbroathSep 25CHA

L0-2Ayr UtdSep 18CHA

L0-2DunfermlineSep 12CHA

W2-1MortonSep 5CHA

D0-0PartickAug 29CHA

L0-2StenhousemuirAug 22CHA

L1-2Raith RoversAug 8CHA

L0-2LivingstonAug 1CHA

W3-1Queen of the SouthJul 25LEA

L1-2AberdeenJul 18LEA

W2-0Kelty HeartsJul 14LEA

W3-1Brora RangersJul 11LEA

W3-1ClydeJun 30FRI

D0-0Annan AthleticJun 27FRI

W5-0Gretna 2008Jun 26FRI

Squad & Injuries

Raith Rovers

21 available

Attackers4

Midfielders9

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Queens Park

25 available

Attackers8

Midfielders7

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Raith Rovers

No

Under 2.5

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Raith Rovers

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals9 of 10 landed

Markets to Avoid

Raith Rovers

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Raith Rovers

Queens Park

Squad & Injuries

Raith Rovers

Queens Park