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Predictions graded

Burnley2Charlton Athletic2

HT 1–0Tue 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 18–9On targetOn target 4–5CornersCorners 7–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 05:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Burnley ended a long wait for a first league win with a 4-0 rout at Watford, but they still have no home league victory this season and sit 22nd.

Charlton, 12th and four draws into their league campaign, are the steadier side. A draw or a Charlton win looks the likeliest way this goes, and the 2.25 on the draw-or-Charlton double chance and the 5.00 on Charlton to win both offer something at those prices.

Context

Hayen took over a winless Burnley and local reporting before the October international break framed his position as under threat. The 4-0 win at Watford on 10 October was his first league victory and Burnley's first since February, giving him breathing space before Charlton visit Turf Moor. Hayen had said on 8 October that he had spoken to owner Alan Pace and accepted he needed results, so this game is a chance to show the turnaround is real. Whether the improvement holds at home is the open question, since Burnley have not won a league game at Turf Moor this season.
- Burnley won 4-0 at Watford on 10 October for their first league victory of the season and first since February, described as Nicky Hayen's first league win as Burnley boss.
- Hayen said on 8 October that he had held talks with owner Alan Pace and accepted that he needed results.
- Local reporting before the international break framed Hayen's position as under serious pressure.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 05:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Amdouni scored Burnley's second goal at Watford and has three league goals this season, making him a first-choice attacking option under Hayen. He was forced off on 61 minutes after being unable to continue following treatment, and the manager answered questions about the knock on 11 October without confirming his availability. If fit, Burnley keep their main goal threat for a home game they are expected to control; if not, Marcus Edwards, who replaced him at Vicarage Road, plus Vardy and Broja provide cover but change the attack's shape.
- Zeki Amdouni scored Burnley's second goal at Watford on 10 October and was replaced on 61 minutes after being unable to continue following treatment.
- Burnley head coach Nicky Hayen addressed Amdouni's knock on 11 October, alongside Ugo Raghouber's absence.
- Z. Amdouni started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 334 minutes across 5 appearances.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 05:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Mbick's first Championship start, against Bristol City on 10 October, came alongside Miles Leaburn and marked a shift from substitute cameos, while the club is negotiating a new deal after turning down a £5m Southampton bid. That matters for Burnley because Jones may again use a young striker to press and run rather than rely on a target man. The negotiation is a longer-term story, and Charlton's other forwards, including Godden and Kelman, mean Mbick's starting place is not fixed.
- Nathan Jones confirmed on 8 October that contract negotiations had begun with Micah Mbick's camp after Southampton had a £5m summer bid rejected.
- Mbick, 18, made his first Championship start, partnering Miles Leaburn up front, in Charlton's 1-1 draw with Bristol City on 10 October.
- Micah Mbick started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 05:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Jones was asked on 10 October about suggestions that Ouma had not returned from international duty on time, and the club has not issued a definitive update on his availability for Turf Moor. Ouma last appeared for Kenya on 1 October, nine days before Charlton's league game against Bristol City, so the timeline is the basis for the questions rather than a confirmed absence. If he is unavailable, Jones loses a mobile midfield option for a midweek away game; if the matter is resolved, he remains part of the rotation. This is unresolved and should be treated as uncertainty rather than a firm absence.
- Charlton manager Nathan Jones addressed rumours on 10 October that Timothy Ouma had failed to return from international duty on time.
- Ouma played 45 minutes of Kenya's 1-0 defeat to Guinea on 1 October, nine days before Charlton's next league game.
- T. Ouma started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- C. Coventry started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when T. Ouma did not start.
To watchSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 05:25 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burnley carry more attacking threat at Turf Moor than a Charlton side that has conceded heavily on the road.
- Burnley: 1W 4D 4L, 13 scored and 17 conceded in 9 league games
- Burnley home: 0 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss, 5 scored, 6 conceded in 4
- Charlton league away: 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses, 4 scored, 9 conceded
- Charlton rank 12th on 13 points; Burnley 22nd on 7
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBurnleyEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores heavily before the break, especially Burnley at home, making a level first half the likeliest outcome.
- Burnley home first-half goals: 0.25 for, 0.5 against
- Charlton away first-half goals: 0.83 for, 1.33 against
- Burnley's recent home first halves: 1-0, 0-0, 0-1
- Combined first-half goal average is around 1.45
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burnley score after the break at home while Charlton are less productive there.
- Burnley second-half goals: 0.67 for, 1.0 against per game
- Burnley home second-half goals: 1.0 for, 1.0 against
- Charlton away second-half goals: 0.5 for, 1.17 against
- Charlton second-half goals: 0.55 for, 0.64 against
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBurnleyEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Charlton concede early away from home and Burnley showed first-half scoring power at Watford. Neither side scores heavily before the break, especially Burnley at home, making a level first half the likeliest outcome.
- Burnley first-half goals: 0.78 for, 0.89 against per game
- Burnley home first-half goals: 0.25 for, 0.5 against in 4
- Burnley home first-half goals: 0.25 for, 0.5 against
- Charlton away first-half goals: 0.83 for, 1.33 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBurnley or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Charlton's recent matches have been low-scoring and their away games have rarely passed three goals.
- Charlton scored 3 goals across their last 6 matches
- Two of Charlton's last six were 0-0 draws
- Charlton away tracked games average 1.83 total goals
- Burnley home games have produced 11 goals in 4
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Burnley score in nearly every match while conceding regularly, and Charlton usually find at least one goal.
- Burnley scored in each of their 9 league games
- Both teams scored in 8 of Burnley's 9 league games
- Charlton average 1.09 goals per tracked game
- Both teams scored in 7 of Charlton's 11 tracked games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley have managed one goal in each of their recent home outings, so reaching two is less likely.
- Burnley scored 5 goals in 4 home league games
- Burnley scored exactly one in their last three home games
- Burnley home shots on target average 3.25
- Charlton have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 tracked games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostBurnley under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Charlton have scored at most once in nearly all of their recent matches, making two goals unlikely.
- Charlton scored 3 goals in their last 6 matches
- Charlton average 1.09 goals per tracked game
- Charlton away: 5 goals in 6 tracked games
- Charlton scored 0 or 1 in 5 of their last 6
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostCharlton Athletic under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley have conceded in nearly every league game, so keeping Charlton out is the less likely side.
- Burnley kept 1 clean sheet in 9 league games
- Burnley have conceded in 8 of 9 league games
- Charlton have scored in 7 of 11 tracked games
- Burnley average 1.89 goals against per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCharlton Athletic to scoreEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
A first-half goal is the normal pattern in both teams' recent matches.
- Burnley first-half goals for and against average 1.67 combined
- Charlton first-half goals for and against average 1.45 combined
- A first-half goal was scored in 3 of Charlton's last 6
- Burnley scored three first-half goals at Watford
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charlton's second halves are low-scoring overall, which makes under two goals the slightly stronger side.
- Charlton second-half goals for and against average 1.19 combined
- Charlton score 0.55 and concede 0.64 after the break
- Charlton away second halves total 1.67
- Burnley home second halves total 2.0
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Combined corner counts in these teams' matches sit right on the line and Charlton concede plenty away.
- Burnley matches average 9.0 corners (4.56 for, 4.44 against)
- Burnley home corners average 10.0 (4.75 for, 5.25 against)
- Charlton away corners average 9.83 (3.33 for, 6.5 against)
- Charlton opponents average 6.27 corners per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches feature plenty of shots and Charlton's away games have been especially busy.
- Burnley matches average 27.8 total shots
- Charlton away matches average 27.3 total shots
- Charlton's opponents average 15.9 shots per game
- Burnley's opponents average 14.0 shots per game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 23.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Charlton's away games produce plenty of shots on target and Burnley concede nearly five per game.
- Burnley matches average 9.1 shots on target combined
- Charlton matches average 8.36 shots on target combined
- Charlton away matches average 11.0 shots on target combined
- Charlton's opponents average 6.0 on target per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

5W · 0D · 0W

W0-3CharltonvBurnleyMay 7, 2016CHA

W4-0BurnleyvCharltonDec 19, 2015CHA

W0-3CharltonvBurnleyMar 22, 2014CHA

W3-0BurnleyvCharltonSep 28, 2013CHA

W0-1CharltonvBurnleyMar 2, 2013CHA

Burnley unbeaten in 5 meetingsBurnley: 5 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
22	Burnley Relegation - League One	9	1	4	4	13-17	7	WDLDL
12	Charlton Athletic	9	3	4	2	8-11	13	DLDDL

6pt gap between teamsBurnley in relegation zone

Recent Form

Burnley

L1-2Bristol CitySep 5CHA

D1-1MiddlesbroughSep 2CHA

L1-4NorwichAug 29CHA

L1-3West BromAug 23CHA

D2-2West HamAug 16CHA

L0-1TorinoAug 2FRI

D2-2EspanyolJul 29FRI

L1-2AjaxJul 26FRI

L1-4Real Salt LakeJul 16FRI

D1-1Columbus CrewJul 12FRI

L1-3FC CincinnatiJul 10FRI

Charlton Athletic

D1-1Bristol CityOct 10CHA

L1-3CardiffSep 19CHA

D0-0PortsmouthSep 12CHA

D0-0QPRSep 9CHA

L0-4Stoke CitySep 5CHA

D1-1West BromSep 2CHA

W1-0PrestonAug 29CHA

L1-5TottenhamAug 26LEA

W2-1West HamAug 22CHA

W2-1DerbyAug 15CHA

W3-1CheltenhamAug 8LEA

L0-3ReadingAug 1FRI

W2-0ColchesterJul 28FRI

L0-2AFC WimbledonJul 25FRI

W1-0GillinghamJul 18FRI

Squad & Injuries

Burnley

22 out

Attackers8/12

×#35

×#21

×#34

×#31

×#35

×#21

×#34

×#31

Midfielders4/11

×#28

×#21

×#28

×#21

Defenders4/10

×#6

×#20

×#6

×#20

Goalkeeper4

E. Agyei — Muscle Injury

#35 A. Barnes — Muscle Injury

J. Beyer — Hamstring Injury

#6 B. Humphreys — Muscle Injury

#28 H. Mejbri — Hamstring Injury

#21 M. Obafemi — Inactive

#21 A. Ramsey — Hamstring Injury

#34 J. Banel — Muscle Injury

J. Cullen — Knee Injury

#20 S. Sambo — Inactive

#31 M. Tresor Ndayishimiye — Inactive

E. Agyei — Muscle Injury

#35 A. Barnes — Muscle Injury

J. Beyer — Hamstring Injury

#6 B. Humphreys — Muscle Injury

#28 H. Mejbri — Hamstring Injury

#21 M. Obafemi — Inactive

#21 A. Ramsey — Hamstring Injury

#34 J. Banel — Muscle Injury

J. Cullen — Knee Injury

#20 S. Sambo — Inactive

#31 M. Tresor Ndayishimiye — Inactive

Charlton Athletic

6 out

Attackers2/7

×#24

Midfielders2/13

×#15

Defenders2/10

×#28

Goalkeeper3

#28 C. Sichenje — Knee Injury

#15 N. Chalobah — Muscle Injury

#24 M. Godden — Muscle Injury

#28 C. Sichenje — Knee Injury

#15 N. Chalobah — Muscle Injury

#24 M. Godden — Muscle Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Charlton Athletic

Charlton Athletic

Under 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Over 9.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 7 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Burnley

Charlton Athletic

Squad & Injuries

Burnley

Charlton Athletic