Levante3Sevilla3

HT 0–1Mon 12 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–569%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 20–18On targetOn target 8–5CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 17:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Levante, 17th on five points, host a Sevilla side fifth on 13 and unbeaten away in La Liga, but Levante have won both 2026 meetings between the clubs.

Sevilla look the likelier winners, and their 2.5 price holds up, as does the 2.1 for the sides to be level at half-time. The 1.35 for either team to win asks too much.

Context

Levante coach Luis Castro has already given 15-year-old Marc Santos league minutes this season, so placing Moyano on the bench would follow an established youth pathway rather than a one-off gesture. Levante have also opened talks over a future pre-contract with the player's entourage, signalling a longer-term plan. Any debut would be historic: the current La Liga record is Luka Romero's 15 years and 219 days. Squad inclusion is still prospective, and nothing guarantees he gets on the pitch against Sevilla.
- Diego Moyano, born in March 2012, trained with Levante's first team on 8 October ahead of the Sevilla fixture.
- He is a right-footed centre-back capped by Spain at Under-15 level and an Under-14 national champion with the Comunitat Valenciana.
- A senior appearance would make him La Liga's youngest debutant, below Luka Romero's mark of 15 years and 219 days.
ReportedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:54 · Europe/Bucharest
García Plaza has run Sevilla's preparations this week, including a training-ground board session on 9 October to walk the squad through the Levante game. He has Suazo and Ure back in training and a striker decision to make. The reception at the Ciutat de València is the human-interest layer on a fixture Sevilla expect to control. The controversy reflects how his career choices are read in Valencia rather than any stated tactical or selection consequence.
- García Plaza takes Sevilla back to the Ciutat de València, where he previously worked, for the first time since joining Sevilla.
- The return is framed around his earlier decision to turn down Levante before taking the Sevilla role.
ReportedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Kochorashvili returned to Sevilla training after playing 270 minutes for Georgia during the international break and is available to help the team. He knows the Ciutat de València and Levante's midfield personnel, giving Sevilla an informed view of the opponent. He also spoke with Levante assistant Iborra, a former Sevilla captain, before the match. His availability is a squad boost, but the reunion itself does not determine how many minutes he plays.
- Kochorashvili left Levante for Sevilla and faces his former club for the first time at the Ciutat de València.
- He wants to reunite with friends from Levante and expects the home side to make life difficult.
- G. Kochorashvili started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Stassin's availability will be decided by how he responds in the final training sessions, and García Plaza has not settled on a number nine. Robbie Ure arrives back late from international duty, leaving Isaac the readiest alternative. The three forwards have two league goals between them this season, so the decision shapes how Sevilla attack a Levante defence that has conceded heavily at home. The outcome remains a genuine doubt rather than a confirmed absence.
- Stassin is recovering from an adductor injury and is using hyperbaric-chamber sessions to try to make the Levante squad.
- Sevilla's striker choice is open, with Robbie Ure returning late from international duty and Isaac the likely alternative.
- L. Stassin started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:54 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Sevilla are the stronger side this season and have taken seven points from three away league games without defeat.
- Sevilla are fifth on 13 points; Levante are 17th on 5
- Sevilla away in the league: 2W 1D 0L with 5 scored and 2 conceded
- Levante have conceded 12 goals in six league games
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSevillaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Both teams are habitually level at the break and first-half scoring is scarce for each.
- Levante were level at half-time in four of their last six
- Sevilla were level at half-time in four of their last six
- Neither side averages more than 0.67 first-half goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Levante score freely at home and beat Sevilla in both 2026 meetings, so a home win carries real weight. Sevilla are the stronger side this season and have taken seven points from three away league games without defeat.
- Levante's league home record is 1W 1L with 7 scored and 6 conceded in two games
- Levante won the last two meetings with Sevilla: 2-0 at home and 3-0 away
- Sevilla are fifth on 13 points; Levante are 17th on 5
- Sevilla away in the league: 2W 1D 0L with 5 scored and 2 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancelostLevante or SevillaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are habitually level at the break and first-half scoring is scarce for each. Sevilla are the better team and Levante concede early goals, giving the visitors a first-half edge.
- Levante were level at half-time in four of their last six
- Sevilla were level at half-time in four of their last six
- Levante average 1.0 first-half goals against
- Sevilla are the stronger side and fifth in the table
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or SevillaEstimated chance78%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Levante's matches are high-scoring and Sevilla have been involved in several open games, so three goals is slightly more likely than not.
- Levante's nine competitive games average 3.33 combined goals
- Sevilla's eight competitive games average 2.5 combined goals
- Levante's league home games finished 5-2 and 2-4
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Both defences concede regularly and Sevilla have found the net in every recent match.
- Levante scored in 6 of 9 and conceded in 6 of 9 competitive games
- Sevilla scored in 7 of 8 competitive games, including all of their last six
- Sevilla conceded in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Levante have struggled to reach two goals recently and often settle for a single strike.
- Levante were scoreless in 3 of their last 6 games
- Levante scored once or fewer in 4 of their last 6
- Levante average 0.67 first-half goals
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostLevante under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sevilla's scoring is consistent but low, with one goal the most common return.
- Sevilla scored once in five of their last six games
- Sevilla average 1.25 goals per competitive game
- Levante kept 3 clean sheets in 9 competitive games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSevilla under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levante concede regularly and Sevilla almost always score, so a blank for the visitors is unlikely.
- Sevilla scored in 7 of 8 competitive games and all of their last six
- Levante conceded in 6 of 9 competitive games
- Levante concede 1.78 goals per competitive game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSevilla to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sevilla concede in most matches and Levante score at a steady rate, especially at home.
- Levante scored in 6 of 9 competitive games
- Sevilla have only 2 clean sheets in 8 competitive games
- Levante scored seven goals in two league home games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLevante to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
First-half goals appear in most of both teams' recent matches, so a goal before the break is likely.
- Levante's last six matches produced 10 first-half goals
- Sevilla's last six matches produced 6 first-half goals
- First-half totals average about 1.3 goals per match between them
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides' second halves sit near 1.6 goals, so two after the break is marginally more likely than not.
- Both teams' last six matches average 1.67 second-half goals
- Levante's second halves included 2, 4, 3 and 2-goal games
- Sevilla's second halves produced 10 goals in six matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sevilla's matches are consistently low on corners, which makes the under slightly more likely.
- Sevilla's matches average 6.9 corners
- Sevilla average 3.25 corners and concede 3.63 per game
- Levante's matches average 9.2 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Levante's matches carry high shot volume and the combined figure sits near the line.
- Levante's matches average 26.2 total shots
- Sevilla's matches average 22.1 total shots
- Levante average 12 shots and concede 14.2 per game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Levante's matches regularly clear the line, leaving the combined total just above it.
- Levante's matches average 10.0 shots on target
- Sevilla's matches average 7.9 shots on target
- Sevilla have recorded 3 or fewer shots on target in several recent games
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sevilla's high booking and sending-off rate lifts the combined card count above the line.
- Sevilla average 2.63 yellow cards per game
- Sevilla have 4 red cards in 8 competitive games
- Levante's matches average 2.9 total yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%