TSV Hartberg4Austria Lustenau3

HT 1–2Sun 11 Oct 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 18–15On targetOn target 12–6CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 01:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Two sides level on eight points meet at the Profertil-Arena, where Hartberg's home form (one win in four league games) is much weaker than their recent record in this fixture.

An open game with goals at both ends is the likeliest shape. The 1.70 on over 2.5 goals is the one quoted price that offers anything; 2.05 for a Hartberg win and 1.29 on either team to win ask for more than the evidence supports.

Context

Hartberg carry the better recent record in this specific fixture despite a modest start to their home league season.
The two most recent meetings both went Hartberg's way at Lustenau, 3-0 in the 2024 cup tie and 4-0 in the 2023 league game. That record sits awkwardly beside Hartberg's current home form: one win, one draw and two defeats in four home league games this season, with nine conceded. It supports Hartberg's hold on this fixture without promising a repeat, particularly as Lustenau have scored in eight of nine competitive matches.
- Austria Lustenau 0-3 TSV Hartberg, Cup, 29 October 2024.
- Hartberg also won 4-0 at Lustenau in the Bundesliga on 29 October 2023 — two away wins in the five recorded meetings between the clubs from March 2023 to October 2024.
The fixture is set for Hartberg's Profertil-Arena with a Sunday 14:30 start, so the game stays at its listed venue and time. Lustenau face a long domestic journey from Vorarlberg to eastern Styria, while Hartberg stay at home. That is the ordinary arrangement for this pairing rather than a special condition, and no venue change or rescheduling has been raised for the round.
- The fixture is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:30 local time.
- The match is set to be played at the Profertil-Arena in Hartberg.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 01:52 · Europe/BucharestHartberg vs Lustenau fixture informationwww.kicker.de · 8 Oct 2026
Hartberg's 80-year anniversary is the club's dominant off-field story this month, with the main celebration held on 2 October and a second gathering booked for 15 October. It gives the home fixture a commemorative backdrop and a reason for former players and supporters to turn out. The milestone is historical and emotional rather than tactical, so on its own it does not shift selection or approach.
- TSV Hartberg marked 80 years of the football club with an event on 2 October 2026.
- The celebration included a legends match, an autograph session and live music.
- A second anniversary event is scheduled for 15 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 01:52 · Europe/Bucharest
Hartberg used the league break to face NK Maribor, the side leading the Slovenian top flight, in a friendly staged in Lebring on 3 October. The game kept the squad in competitive rhythm heading into a block with two home matches. It also indicates the staff chose a demanding opponent rather than a light session. Friendly results and line-ups carry limited read-through to the league, and the starting eleven from that match was not published.
- Hartberg drew 0-0 with NK Maribor in a friendly played in Lebring on 3 October 2026.
- Maribor were leading the Slovenian top division at the time of the game.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 01:52 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Home advantage plus a clear recent edge in this fixture gives Hartberg the best single chance.
- Hartberg are 6th with 8 points from 7 league games (2W 2D 3L).
- Lustenau's league away record is 0W 1D 2L, with 3 scored and 5 conceded in 3 games.
- Hartberg won the last two head-to-head meetings 3-0 and 4-0, both away at Lustenau.
- Hartberg's home league record is 1W 1D 2L, scoring 6 and conceding 9.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTSV HartbergEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides concede little before the break, so the interval is often level.
- Hartberg average 0.56 first-half goals conceded over nine competitive matches.
- Lustenau average 0.67 first-half goals conceded.
- Lustenau's most recent league away match was 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half output from both sides is modest, so the half often ends level.
- Hartberg average 0.67 second-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Lustenau average 0.78 second-half goals scored and 0.78 conceded.
- Lustenau scored one second-half goal across their last three league matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Home advantage plus a clear recent edge in this fixture gives Hartberg the best single chance. Lustenau score in nearly every game and meet a Hartberg home defence that leaks goals.
- Hartberg are 6th with 8 points from 7 league games (2W 2D 3L).
- Lustenau's league away record is 0W 1D 2L, with 3 scored and 5 conceded in 3 games.
- Lustenau have scored in 8 of 9 competitive matches at 1.67 goals per game.
- Hartberg have one clean sheet in nine and concede 2.25 goals per home league game.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTSV Hartberg or Austria LustenauEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hartberg's overall first-half scoring gives them the best single chance of leading at the break. Both sides concede little before the break, so the interval is often level.
- Hartberg average 1.22 first-half goals scored and 0.56 conceded over nine competitive matches.
- Hartberg scored in the first half in four of their last six matches.
- Hartberg average 0.56 first-half goals conceded over nine competitive matches.
- Lustenau average 0.67 first-half goals conceded.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostTSV Hartberg or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both defences concede regularly and the recent matches of each side have been goal-heavy.
- Hartberg's competitive matches average 3.44 total goals (1.89 for, 1.56 against).
- Lustenau's competitive matches average 3.11 total goals (1.67 for, 1.44 against).
- Both teams scored in 5 of Hartberg's 9 and 6 of Lustenau's 9 competitive games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both sides find the net regularly and neither defence has kept clean sheets reliably.
- Hartberg scored in 6 of 9 competitive matches; Lustenau scored in 8 of 9.
- Hartberg have one clean sheet in nine, Lustenau two in nine.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Lustenau's 9 competitive games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hartberg's home scoring sits on the line, with a blank among their recent home games.
- Hartberg average exactly 1.5 goals per home league game.
- Hartberg were held to zero by Austria Vienna in their most recent home league game covered.
- Lustenau concede 1.4 goals per away competitive match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostTSV Hartberg under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lustenau's league away scoring has been low even though Hartberg's home defence is generous.
- Lustenau average 1.0 goal per league away game.
- Lustenau were held to one goal at Austria Vienna in their latest league away match.
- Hartberg have kept one clean sheet in nine competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostAustria Lustenau under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hartberg's home defence has conceded in every home league game covered and Lustenau score consistently.
- Lustenau scored in 8 of 9 competitive matches.
- Hartberg have no clean sheet in four home league games.
- Hartberg concede 2.25 goals per home league game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAustria Lustenau to scoreEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hartberg have scored in most of their matches and score well at home, so a Lustenau shutout is unlikely.
- Hartberg scored in 6 of 9 competitive matches.
- Hartberg scored 6 goals in 4 home league games.
- Lustenau conceded in 3 of 5 away competitive matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTSV Hartberg to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams' first halves usually produce at least one goal.
- Hartberg's matches average 1.78 first-half goals combined (1.22 for, 0.56 against).
- Hartberg's last two home league games each had first-half goals.
- Five of Lustenau's last six matches produced at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half concession rates on both sides point away from both teams scoring before the break.
- Hartberg concede 0.56 first-half goals per competitive match.
- Lustenau concede 0.67 first-half goals per competitive match.
- Lustenau average 0.6 first-half goals per away match.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance73%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have generated corner counts comfortably above the line.
- Hartberg's seven tracked matches average 13.4 total corners (3.43 for, 10.0 against).
- Lustenau's seven tracked matches average 13.1 total corners (5.57 for, 7.57 against).
- Lustenau average 6.0 corners per away competitive match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have averaged total shot counts above the line.
- Hartberg's tracked matches average 28.3 total shots (8.86 for, 19.43 against).
- Lustenau's tracked matches average 29.3 total shots (14.14 for, 15.14 against).
- Shot data covers only seven matches per side.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 23.5Estimated chance62%