Austria Vienna2Austria Lustenau1

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 15–13On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 00:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Austria Vienna are favored by the market but our model sees no value in backing them (45% vs 55% implied).

Goal markets are also overpriced, especially first-half over 0.5 at 1.29. Best approach: avoid the main markets and expect a tight, low-scoring contest.

Context

Austria Vienna are 12th in the Bundesliga with three points from five matches.
Their league form is poor: they lost 0-1 at home to WSG Wattens on 2 September, 1-4 away to Red Bull Salzburg on 30 August, and 0-2 at home to Lask Linz on 9 August. They have not won at home this season and have scored no goals in two home league games. This match is a chance to end that run, but their recent results suggest they may struggle to create chances.
- Austria Vienna are 12th with 3 points from 5 matches (1W, 0D, 4L).
- They lost 0-1 at home to WSG Wattens on 2 September 2026.
- They lost 1-4 away to Red Bull Salzburg on 30 August 2026.
- They lost 0-2 at home to Lask Linz on 9 August 2026.
Austria Lustenau are 8th with five points from five matches.
Their away record is weak: they drew 1-1 at Sturm Graz on 22 August and lost 1-2 at Grazer AK on 8 August. They have conceded three goals in two away games. Facing a struggling Austria Vienna side, they may see this as an opportunity, but their away form has not produced a win yet.
- Austria Lustenau have 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in 2 away league matches.
- They drew 1-1 at Sturm Graz on 22 August 2026.
- They lost 1-2 at Grazer AK on 8 August 2026.
Austria Wien strengthened their defensive midfield on 8 September with a new signing registered through 2026/27.
The addition gives the home side another central-midfield option for Sunday, increasing selection flexibility and providing cover for late-game changes. The claim does not specify whether the player will start, so the immediate effect on the lineup remains uncertain.
- FK Austria Wien announced on 8 September that the new signing would strengthen its defensive midfield immediately.
- The club registered the player through to the end of the 2026/27 season.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 00:34 · Europe/BucharestFK Austria Wien: Austria sign Valentino Müllerpresse.fk-austria.at · 8 Sep 2026
The last five meetings between these teams include three Austria Vienna wins, one draw, and one Austria Lustenau win.
In the most recent three encounters, Austria Vienna lost 0-2 away on 3 May 2024, drew 1-1 at home on 6 April 2024, and lost 0-1 at home on 4 November 2023. This suggests Austria Lustenau have been competitive in recent matchups, though the sample is small and from previous seasons.
- Austria Lustenau won 2-0 at home on 3 May 2024.
- Austria Vienna drew 1-1 at home on 6 April 2024.
- Austria Lustenau won 1-0 away on 4 November 2023.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Austria Vienna

1.83fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 54.6%

0.0ppshort

Despite the negative edge, the predictor's MEDIUM confidence and strong H2H record suggest a potential value if the market overestimates the away side.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Austria Vienna or Draw

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The double chance covers Austria Vienna's poor current home form while leveraging their historical dominance, but the odds are too short relative to the estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Combined team averages and H2H history suggest a moderate chance of over 2.5 goals, but the odds are slightly below fair value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in most recent matches, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite poor recent league form, Austria Vienna's strong H2H record and home advantage give them the edge, though low confidence due to their current struggles.
- Austria Vienna have lost 4 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches, but won their most recent home cup match 6-0.
- Austria Lustenau have won only 1 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches and have 0 away wins this season.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Austria Vienna won 3 and drew 1, including a 5-0 home win in 2023.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAustria ViennaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The double chance covers Austria Vienna's poor current home form while leveraging their historical dominance in this matchup.
- Austria Vienna have not lost at home to Austria Lustenau in the last 5 H2H meetings (3 wins, 1 draw).
- Austria Lustenau have only 1 draw and 1 loss in 2 away Bundesliga matches this season.
- Austria Vienna's home record this season is 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, but they have a strong historical home edge in this fixture.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAustria Vienna or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Austria Vienna have a slight first-half edge based on their leading percentage, but low confidence due to their poor form.
- Austria Vienna lead at half-time in 47% of their matches.
- Austria Lustenau trail at half-time in 27% of their matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Austria Vienna led at half-time in 2 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAustria ViennaEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win from start to finish is possible given the H2H dominance, but Austria Vienna's current form makes it a low-probability outcome.
- Austria Vienna have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including a 5-0 home win.
- Austria Vienna's home form this season is poor (0 wins in 2), but they have a strong historical home record against Lustenau.
- Austria Lustenau have not won away in the Bundesliga this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostAustria Vienna/Austria ViennaEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown moderate scoring and conceding tendencies, and the H2H history supports a higher-scoring game.
- Austria Vienna's Bundesliga matches average 2.9 total goals (1.8 for, 1.1 against).
- Austria Lustenau's Bundesliga matches average 2.4 total goals (1.3 for, 1.1 against).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown the ability to score despite their struggles, making BTTS a reasonable outcome.
- Austria Vienna have scored in 4 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches.
- Austria Lustenau have scored in 4 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 2 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and the H2H record supports early goals.
- Austria Vienna average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Austria Lustenau average 0.6 first-half goals per match.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 matches had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring average slightly exceeds 1.5, but low confidence due to variability.
- Austria Vienna average 0.9 second-half goals per match (1.8 total - 0.9 first half).
- Austria Lustenau average 0.7 second-half goals per match (1.3 total - 0.6 first half).
- Combined second-half average is 1.6 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest a total above 9.5, but low confidence due to limited recent corner data.
- Austria Vienna average 3.9 corners per match and concede 5.9 opponent corners (total 9.8).
- Austria Lustenau average 6.4 corners per match and concede 7.6 opponent corners (total 14.0).
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is approximately 11.9.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is right at the line, making this a coin-flip prediction.
- Austria Vienna average 3.2 shots on target per match and concede 3.9 opponent shots on target (total 7.1).
- Austria Lustenau average 4.2 shots on target per match and concede 4.6 opponent shots on target (total 8.8).
- Combined average shots on target is approximately 8.0.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card average is near the line, with Lustenau's higher card count pushing it slightly over.
- Austria Vienna average 1.6 yellow cards per match and 0.3 red cards.
- Austria Lustenau average 2.2 yellow cards per match and 1.0 red cards.
- Combined average cards is approximately 3.8 yellow cards plus red cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%