Hull City2Everton2

HT 0–0Sun 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 35%–65%ShotsShots 9–15On targetOn target 5–7CornersCorners 7–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 01:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Hull City's home defence meets an Everton side unbeaten in the league but drawing both away games.

This shapes as a tight, low-scoring match where a level first half and under 2.5 goals are the likely paths, and Hull or draw appeals. The quoted prices that offer something are both teams to score – no at 1.91, under 2.5 at 1.78, Hull or draw at 1.75, first-half draw at 2.15 and Hull to win at 3.4.

Context

Mykolenko has played every minute of Everton's opening five league games, so a change at left-back touches a defence that has conceded only three goals. Both available routes involve a compromise: shifting James Garner back into defence, or moving Ainsley Maitland-Niles across and using Jake O'Brien on the right. The knock is not thought to be serious and no decision has been confirmed, so the size of the reshuffle depends on late fitness work rather than on a settled replacement.
- Vitalii Mykolenko returned from Ukraine duty with a knock and is back at Finch Farm for assessment ahead of the Hull City game.
- Ukraine's coach said in the October window that Mykolenko was still out injured.
- The alternatives at left-back are moving James Garner back, as happened three times last season, or using Ainsley Maitland-Niles there with Jake O'Brien at right-back.
- Everton are unbeaten in the league with nine points from five games and three goals conceded.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 01:53 · Europe/Bucharest
The timeframe covers most of October, so this removes a midfield option for a block of fixtures rather than for one afternoon. Central midfield is where Hull can least afford a shortage against an Everton side that has conceded only three league goals in five games and looks to control transitions. The layoff is described as weeks rather than given a fixed return date, so Hull's midfield selection stays open beyond Sunday.
- Iroegbunam is set to miss the majority of October through injury.
- The injury rules him out of the Everton game, which had been framed around his reunion with the club.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 01:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Morita's return restores a senior central midfielder to a squad that has been carrying a long absentee list into the international break. Hull framed the state of their squad ahead of the Everton game as a major boost, which points to him being part of the plan for Sunday rather than a longer-term project. A friendly appearance is the only playing evidence so far, so match sharpness after the layoff remains the open question.
- Morita is back and was set to play in a behind-closed-doors friendly against Sheffield United during the international break.
- Hull City described their injury position ahead of the Everton fixture as a major boost.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 01:53 · Europe/Bucharest
That home record is the foundation of Hull's narrow edge: they have not lost at home in the sample and allow 0.2 goals per game. Everton arrive unbeaten in the league but have scored once in two away league games, so the match asks whether Everton's possession and shot volume can produce clear chances. The counterpoint is the small sample: five matches, and the latest home fixture in the data was a 0-0 draw with Aston Villa on 5 September 2026.
- Hull's competitive home record to 5 September 2026: five matches, three wins, two draws, no losses, one goal conceded and four clean sheets (0.2 goals against per home game).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.40
The read
Hull's home record is built on very few goals conceded, which gives them a narrow edge over an Everton side still looking for an away win.
- Hull are unbeaten in their last five competitive home matches (3W 2D 0L), conceding once (0.2 per game).
- Hull average 1.1 goals scored and 0.6 conceded across 10 competitive matches.
- Everton's two Premier League away games this season both finished level (1 scored, 1 conceded).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHull CityEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Both teams start slowly and score rarely before the break, making a level first half the single most likely outcome.
- Hull average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.4 against; Everton 0.375 for and 0.25 against.
- Only 2 of Hull's last 6 and 2 of Everton's last 6 matches had a first-half goal.
- Hull's five home matches produced 3 first-half goals in total.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both defences strong after the break and modest scoring, a level second half is the most likely single outcome.
- Hull average 0.6 second-half goals for and 0.2 against; Everton 1.0 for and 0.25 against.
- Hull's five home matches produced 2 second-half goals in total.
- Second halves in Everton's away matches produced 1 goal for and 0 against per game.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hull's home record is built on very few goals conceded, which gives them a narrow edge over an Everton side still looking for an away win. Everton have the stronger overall record and goal difference, and their away form is difficult to beat even if wins are rare.
- Hull are unbeaten in their last five competitive home matches (3W 2D 0L), conceding once (0.2 per game).
- Hull average 1.1 goals scored and 0.6 conceded across 10 competitive matches.
- Everton are unbeaten in the league (2W 3D 0L) and sit 7th on 9 points, one place and one point above Hull.
- Everton average 1.375 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per competitive match, with 5 clean sheets in 8.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostHull City or EvertonEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves involving these teams are usually quiet, so a Hull lead at the break is possible but not the main path. Both teams start slowly and score rarely before the break, making a level first half the single most likely outcome.
- Hull average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.4 against; Everton 0.375 for and 0.25 against.
- Only 2 of Hull's last 6 matches had a first-half goal.
- Only 2 of Hull's last 6 and 2 of Everton's last 6 matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonHull City or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Two of the tighter defensive records in the early standings make a low-scoring game the more likely outcome.
- Hull have conceded 4 goals in 10 competitive matches and Everton 3 in 8.
- Hull's five home matches produced 1 goal against; Everton's four away matches produced 2 goals against.
- Four of Hull's last 6 and four of Everton's last 6 matches stayed under three goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91
The read
With both sides keeping clean sheets at a high rate, at least one team failing to score is the likelier result.
- Hull's 10 competitive matches contained 3 both-teams-scored games; Everton's 8 contained 2.
- Hull average 0.6 goals conceded and Everton 0.5 across competitive matches.
- Hull have 4 clean sheets in 5 home matches and Everton 2 in 4 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Everton score consistently enough that Hull keeping a clean sheet is slightly less likely than not.
- Everton have scored in 6 of 8 competitive matches and in both league away games.
- Hull's home clean-sheet sample is only 5 matches.
- Everton average 1.375 goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEverton to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hull score often enough at home that an Everton clean sheet is the less likely side of this line.
- Hull scored in 7 of 10 competitive matches and in 3 of 5 home games.
- Everton have kept 2 clean sheets in 4 away matches.
- Everton's away sample of 4 matches is small.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHull City to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two first-half scoring rates are low but not empty, leaving this line close to a coin toss.
- Just 2 of Hull's last 6 and 2 of Everton's last 6 matches had a first-half goal.
- Hull average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.4 against; Everton 0.375 for and 0.25 against.
- Hull's home first-half goals for average 0.6, with 0.2 against.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences hold firm after the break and total second-half scoring is generally low.
- Hull have conceded 2 second-half goals in 10 competitive matches.
- Hull average 0.6 second-half goals for and Everton 1.0.
- Hull's five home matches produced 2 second-half goals in total.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance68%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are involved in matches with a healthy corner count, especially Everton away, so just over nine is the slight favourite.
- Hull's last 6 matches averaged 11 corners in total; Everton's last 6 averaged 9.8.
- Hull average 3.9 corners and 5.8 conceded; Everton 5.375 and 4.25.
- Everton's away matches average 12.5 corners in total.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hull's low shot counts are the main drag on the combined total, making the under slightly more likely.
- Hull average 10.5 shots per competitive match and 8.4 in home games.
- Hull's last 6 matches averaged 25 shots in total.
- Hull recorded 6, 7 and 8 shots in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 27.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hull's modest shot-on-target numbers in both directions make a combined total under nine the more likely outcome.
- Hull average 3.6 shots on target per match and conceded 3.3.
- Hull's last 6 matches averaged 7.3 shots on target in total, including 1 and 2 in two games.
- Hull's home split shows 3.4 shots on target and 2.0 faced.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card counts for these two sides sit just below five, making the under the slightly better-supported side.
- Hull's 10 competitive matches average 3.6 total cards (2.7 for, 0.9 against).
- Everton's competitive matches average 3.86 total cards.
- Hull's last 6 matches averaged 4.2 cards in total.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance56%