Excelsior1Groningen5

HT 1–2Sun 11 Oct 2026, 14:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 16–14On targetOn target 2–9CornersCorners 3–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 02:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Level on 11 points with identical league records and Groningen travelling without five reported absentees, this is a close call shaped as much by Excelsior's weak home form as the visitors' scoring.

The football points to goals at both ends rather than a home win. None of the reviewed prices offers anything: Excelsior or Groningen to win, both at 2.5, Over 2.5 goals at 1.5, both teams to score at 1.43, the match not finishing level at 1.29 and a first-half goal at 1.2.

Context

Excelsior and Groningen arrive on identical records — three wins, two draws and two defeats from seven Eredivisie matches, 11 points each. With the table this congested in mid-October, a win at Woudestein would put either club clear of the other and into the upper half of the early standings. Because the two records match almost exactly, the standings themselves offer little to separate them, which makes availability and match-day conditions the more informative angles around this fixture.
- Excelsior and Groningen each have three wins, two draws and two defeats from seven Eredivisie matches.
- Both clubs sit on 11 points going into matchday 8.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 02:21 · Europe/BucharestESPN match pagewww.espn.com · 8 Oct 2026
Five players are missing for Groningen, a group running across defence, midfield and attack: Tyrique Mercera, Travis Hernes, Ryan Metu, Elvis van der Laan and Malcolm Jeng, the last with an Achilles problem. Three of the five are defenders, which is where the squeeze is sharpest for a squad that has just come through an international window and travels to Rotterdam on Sunday. The list comes from a squad-comparison page rather than a club bulletin, and other availability listings name further absentees, so the exact match-day picture could still shift.
- Groningen are without Tyrique Mercera, Travis Hernes, Ryan Metu, Elvis van der Laan and Malcolm Jeng through injury.
- Malcolm Jeng's absence is listed as an Achilles problem.
- Three of the five absentees — Mercera, Jeng and van der Laan — are defenders.
ReportedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 02:21 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt match reportwww.transfermarkt.com · 8 Oct 2026
Vaessen is one of the goalkeepers in Groningen's squad and spent the October window with Suriname, where the Nations League match against Guatemala ended in disorder and he reported racist abuse. Groningen published a statement of support on 8 October, the day the internationals were due back and three days before the trip to Woudestein. The episode concerns his international week rather than his club role, and no club update has tied it to his availability for this fixture.
- Etienne Vaessen faced racist abuse during Suriname's Nations League match against Guatemala.
- FC Groningen published a statement in support of its goalkeeper on 8 October 2026.
- E. Vaessen started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 450 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 02:21 · Europe/Bucharest
Excelsior have lost their last two home meetings with Groningen by 0-2, and Groningen's December 2025 win at Woudestein is the most recent evidence of how this fixture has run. Excelsior's 3-2 win in Groningen on 2 May 2026 is the counterweight, and the sequence of three straight away wins in the series complicates any assumption that home advantage decides this one.
- Groningen won 2-0 at Excelsior on 5 December 2025 in the Eredivisie.
- Excelsior won 3-2 at Groningen on 2 May 2026 in the most recent meeting between the clubs.
- The away side has won each of the last three meetings, including Groningen's 2-0 win at Excelsior in the KNVB Beker on 16 January 2024.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.20fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83.3%

−5.3ppshort

First-half goals have been a regular feature of both teams' matches, making a goalless opening half unlikely.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Excelsior or Groningen

1.29fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77.5%

−5.5ppshort

Excelsior score in every game and face an away side missing several defenders, though their own home results are modest. Groningen have recent success at this ground and are scoring heavily, while Excelsior's home form is the weaker part of their record.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.43fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 69.9%

−5.9ppshort

Both defences have conceded often and both attacks have scored in the large majority of recent matches.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 66.7%

−3.7ppshort

Both teams score and concede regularly, so a match with three goals or more is the more likely outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Excelsior score in every game and face an away side missing several defenders, though their own home results are modest.
- Excelsior have scored in all 10 competitive matches in the window, averaging 2.2 goals per game
- Groningen are missing five players, including defenders Jeng, Mercera and van der Laan
- Excelsior's league home record is one win, no draws and two defeats with four goals in three games
- Groningen concede 2.0 goals per away match in the window
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostExcelsiorEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Groningen have started quickly in recent matches and score more before half-time than Excelsior manage at home.
- Groningen scored in the first half of all six of their most recent matches
- Groningen average 1.5 first-half goals per game, and 1.2 in away matches
- Excelsior's home matches average 0.75 first-half goals against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonGroningenEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Excelsior score in every game and face an away side missing several defenders, though their own home results are modest. Groningen have recent success at this ground and are scoring heavily, while Excelsior's home form is the weaker part of their record.
- Excelsior have scored in all 10 competitive matches in the window, averaging 2.2 goals per game
- Groningen are missing five players, including defenders Jeng, Mercera and van der Laan
- Groningen won 2-0 on their last visit to Woudestein in December 2025
- Groningen have scored 2.83 goals per game across their last six matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonExcelsior or GroningenEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves involving these teams have been relatively even, with both sides scoring and conceding before the break. Groningen have started quickly in recent matches and score more before half-time than Excelsior manage at home.
- Excelsior average 1.1 first-half goals for and 0.6 against across 10 matches
- Groningen average 1.5 first-half goals for and 1.0 against across nine matches
- Groningen scored in the first half of all six of their most recent matches
- Groningen average 1.5 first-half goals per game, and 1.2 in away matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or GroningenEstimated chance69%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams score and concede regularly, so a match with three goals or more is the more likely outcome.
- Excelsior's 10 competitive matches average 3.6 goals in total
- Groningen's nine competitive matches average 3.67 goals in total
- Both teams scored in eight of Excelsior's 10 matches and seven of Groningen's nine
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both defences have conceded often and both attacks have scored in the large majority of recent matches.
- Both teams scored in eight of Excelsior's 10 matches and seven of Groningen's nine
- Both teams scored in all four of Excelsior's home matches in the window
- Both teams scored in four of Groningen's five away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Excelsior have managed exactly one goal in each home league game so far, keeping their home output modest.
- Excelsior scored four goals in three home league games this season
- Excelsior's home matches average 1.25 goals for
- Groningen kept a clean sheet in their most recent match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonExcelsior under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Groningen's away scoring is moderate, and one goal or fewer has been their most common away return in the league.
- Groningen's away matches average 1.6 goals for
- Groningen scored 1, 1 and 4 goals in their three league away games
- Excelsior kept no clean sheet at home but held Willem II to nil away
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostGroningen under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Groningen have found the net in nearly every match and Excelsior have not kept a home clean sheet in the window.
- Groningen scored in eight of nine competitive matches
- Excelsior kept no clean sheet in four home matches
- Groningen scored in four of five away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGroningen to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
First-half goals have been a regular feature of both teams' matches, making a goalless opening half unlikely.
- All six of Groningen's most recent matches had at least one first-half goal
- Five of Excelsior's last six matches had a first-half goal
- Excelsior's matches average 1.7 first-half goals in total; Groningen's average 2.5
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging around one first-half goal, one side going without an early goal is the more likely case.
- Excelsior scored only two first-half goals in four home matches
- Excelsior's home matches average 0.75 first-half goals against
- Groningen's away matches average 1.0 first-half goals against
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Groningen's weak away second-half scoring pulls the expected total just below the line.
- Groningen's away matches average 1.4 second-half goals in total
- Groningen scored 0.4 second-half goals per away match
- Excelsior's home matches average 0.75 second-half goals for and against
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Groningen's away games generate plenty of corners, mainly for their opponents, pushing the total above the line.
- Groningen's away matches average 9.4 corners in total (2.2 for, 7.2 against)
- Groningen's last six matches averaged 9.8 corners in total
- Excelsior's matches average 9.1 corners in total
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches produce shot totals above this line, with Groningen's away games especially busy.
- Excelsior's matches average 27.2 shots in total; Groningen's average 28.2
- Groningen's away matches average 26.0 shots in total (9.8 for, 16.2 against)
- Groningen's last six matches averaged 30 shots in total
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 25.5Estimated chance58%