Groningen3Zwolle0

HT 2–0Fri 18 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–469%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 17–9On targetOn target 7–1CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 04:39 · Europe/Bucharest

The market overrates Groningen and over 2.5 goals, but the best value is over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.95, driven by Zwolle's poor second-half defense.

Avoid short-priced bets on Groningen, double chance, over 2.5, and BTTS, as they offer negative expected value.

Context

PEC Zwolle are 16th in the Eredivisie with four points from six matches, sitting in the relegation zone.
Their defensive record is poor: they have conceded 17 goals in six league games, an average of 2.8 per match. In their most recent match, they lost 7-0 at home to Feyenoord on 13 September 2026. Away from home, they have conceded five goals in three matches, which is more respectable but still leaves them vulnerable. Groningen have scored 12 goals in six matches, so they have the ability to test this defence.
- PEC Zwolle have conceded 17 goals in 6 Eredivisie matches this season.
- They lost 7-0 at home to Feyenoord on 13 September 2026.
- Away from home, they have conceded 5 goals in 3 matches.
Groningen are 9th in the Eredivisie with eight points from six matches.
At home, they have been inconsistent: a 2-1 win over Utrecht on 9 August 2026, a 2-2 draw with Twente on 6 September 2026, and a 2-3 loss to Fortuna Sittard on 28 August 2026. They have scored six and conceded six in three home matches, showing they can both score and concede. This suggests the match could be open, especially against a Zwolle side that has struggled defensively.
- Groningen's home record: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss in 3 matches.
- They scored 6 and conceded 6 goals at home.
- Recent home results: 2-1 vs Utrecht (9 Aug), 2-2 vs Twente (6 Sep), 2-3 vs Fortuna Sittard (28 Aug).
Groningen defender M. Rente returned to match action as a 70th-minute substitute against Go Ahead Eagles on 12 September, having not started any of the five recent fixtures with available lineups.
His return expands Groningen's defensive selection and late-game rotation options. The bench appearance confirms he is available, but it does not establish whether he is ready to start against Zwolle.
- FC Groningen drew 1-1 away to Go Ahead Eagles on 12 September.
- FC Groningen reported that M. Rente entered in the 70th minute, replacing Wouter Prins.
- M. Rente started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 04:37 · Europe/BucharestFC Groningen match reportwww.fcgroningen.nl · 12 Sep 2026
Groningen and PEC Zwolle have met regularly in the Eredivisie.
In their last four league meetings, there have been three draws and one Zwolle win. The most recent match on 13 March 2026 ended 1-1, and the previous meeting on 23 November 2025 was 2-2. The only decisive result was a 2-0 Zwolle home win on 18 May 2025. These results suggest a tight contest, though current form may override historical patterns.
- Last 4 league meetings: 3 draws, 1 Zwolle win.
- 13 Mar 2026: PEC Zwolle 1-1 Groningen.
- 23 Nov 2025: Groningen 2-2 PEC Zwolle.
- 18 May 2025: PEC Zwolle 2-0 Groningen.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Groningen or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Groningen's solid form and the draw-heavy head-to-head make a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' matches trend high-scoring, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Groningen's stronger recent form and home advantage outweigh Zwolle's poor overall record, though the draw-heavy H2H tempers confidence.
- Groningen home record this season: 1W-1D-1L, 6 goals scored, 6 conceded.
- Zwolle away record this season: 1W-1D-1L, 5 goals scored, 5 conceded.
- Groningen last 5 league matches: 2W-2D-1L; Zwolle last 5 league matches: 1W-1D-3L.
- H2H last 5: 4 draws and 1 Zwolle home win; no Groningen win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGroningenEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Groningen's solid form and the draw-heavy head-to-head make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Groningen have lost only 1 of their last 5 league matches.
- Zwolle have lost 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- H2H last 5: 4 draws, 1 Zwolle win; Groningen unbeaten in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGroningen or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Groningen's stronger first-half scoring and Zwolle's tendency to trail early give the home side a slight edge.
- Groningen led at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
- Zwolle trailed at half-time in 33% of recent matches.
- Groningen average 0.9 first-half goals vs Zwolle's 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonGroningenEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zwolle's second-half collapses and Groningen's ability to score late make a home second-half win plausible.
- Groningen have a positive second-half goal difference in recent matches.
- Zwolle have a negative second-half goal difference, conceding heavily after the break.
- Zwolle's second-half defensive record is among the worst in the league.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonGroningenEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a half-time lead is possible but not strongly supported by the draw-heavy H2H.
- Groningen led at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
- Groningen won 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- Zwolle have lost 3 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonGroningen/GroningenEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches trend high-scoring, especially with Zwolle's leaky defense, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Groningen league matches average 3.3 total goals (12 scored, 13 conceded in 6).
- Zwolle league matches average 3.8 total goals (6 scored, 17 conceded in 6).
- Zwolle have conceded 17 goals in 6 matches, including 7 in their last home game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net while also conceding, making BTTS a strong possibility.
- Groningen have scored in 5 of 6 league matches.
- Zwolle have scored in 4 of 6 league matches.
- Groningen have conceded in 5 of 6 league matches; Zwolle have conceded in all 6.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring rate is borderline, but both teams' defensive vulnerabilities could push it over.
- Groningen average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Zwolle average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.5 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zwolle's second-half defensive struggles and both teams' scoring tendencies support over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Groningen average 0.6 second-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Zwolle average 0.6 second-half goals scored and 1.7 conceded.
- Zwolle's second-half defensive record is particularly poor.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner average is below 9.5, but both teams' attacking intent could push the total higher.
- Groningen average 4.0 corners per match, Zwolle 3.8.
- Combined average corners per match is 7.8.
- Recent matches show variability, with some high corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shot average is near the line, and Zwolle's defensive openness could lead to more shots.
- Groningen average 13.2 shots per match, Zwolle 10.0.
- Combined average shots per match is 23.2.
- Zwolle's opponents average 18.3 shots per match.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 23.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is right at the line, making this a coin-flip proposition.
- Groningen average 4.9 shots on target per match, Zwolle 3.7.
- Combined average shots on target is 8.6.
- Zwolle's opponents average 6.3 shots on target per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card average is below the line, but derby-like intensity could increase bookings.
- Groningen average 1.4 yellow cards per match, Zwolle 1.2.
- Combined average yellow cards is 2.6.
- Both teams have moderate foul rates (9.9 and 11.1 per match).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance40%