EredivisieFull time

Predictions graded

Heracles Almelo1Groningen2

HT 1–1Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges8–280%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 11–16On targetOn target 2–5CornersCorners 9–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 17:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Groningen are strong favorites to beat a Heracles side in freefall, with H2H dominance (4-0, 4-1 in last two meetings) and the hosts' leaky defense making an away win or double chance the safest bets.

For value, consider over 3.5 goals at 1.91 or over 3.5 cards at 1.80, but avoid short-priced markets like BTTS Yes and first-half over 0.5 goals where the odds offer no edge.

Context

Heracles lost their last 5 Eredivisie matches, scoring only 1 goal in that run.
- Over the last 15 games, they conceded 2.5 goals per match on average.
- They have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
Groningen won 4-0 at home in August 2025 and 4-1 at home in April 2025.
- Heracles have not beaten Groningen in the last three league meetings (D1 L2).
- Groningen scored 4 goals in both of those wins, exploiting Heracles' defensive weaknesses.
Faber was appointed on 28 November 2025 after the previous leadership left in October.
- The dual role is unusual in the Eredivisie and may stretch resources.
- Heracles have won only 1 of their last 15 league matches under this structure.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Groningen's superior form, H2H dominance, and Heracles' relegation-level defensive frailty make an away win highly likely.
- Heracles lost last 5 matches, conceding 2.5 goals per game over last 15.
- Groningen won 2 of last 5, including 2-0 away at Telstar and 3-0 home vs AZ.
- H2H last 3 league meetings: Groningen unbeaten (4-0, 4-1, 1-1).
- Heracles home record: 4W-3D-9L, 22GF/34GA; Groningen away: 6W-2D-8L, 20GF/26GA.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGroningenEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Heracles' poor form and historical struggles against Groningen make a home win improbable, strongly favoring Groningen or draw.
- Heracles have not beaten Groningen in last 3 league H2Hs (2 losses, 1 draw).
- Heracles are bottom of the table with 5 straight losses.
- Groningen have lost only 2 of last 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or GroningenEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Heracles' poor first-half performances and Groningen's occasional early leads suggest a possible away lead at the break, though confidence is low.
- Heracles trailed at half-time in 60% of last 15 matches.
- Groningen led at half-time in 27% of last 15 matches.
- Heracles have not led at half-time in any of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostGroningenEstimated chance45%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Heracles' leaky defense and Groningen's consistent scoring, combined with high-scoring recent H2Hs, point to over 2.5 goals.
- Heracles conceded 2.5 goals per game over last 15; 3+ goals in 4 of last 5.
- Groningen scored 1.5 goals per game over last 15; 2+ goals in 3 of last 5.
- Last 2 H2Hs saw 4+ total goals (4-0, 4-1).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Heracles' struggles, they often find the net at home, and Groningen's away defense is not watertight, making both teams scoring plausible.
- Heracles scored in 2 of last 5 home matches.
- Groningen conceded in 4 of last 5 away matches.
- Heracles have scored in 3 of last 5 H2Hs against Groningen.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Heracles' tendency to concede early and Groningen's ability to score in the first half make over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Heracles conceded first-half goals in 4 of last 5 matches (1.1 per game avg).
- Groningen scored first-half goals in 3 of last 5 matches (0.6 per game avg).
- H2H: first-half goals in 2 of last 3 league meetings.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede and score more in second halves, and recent H2Hs have been high-scoring after the break.
- Heracles conceded 2+ second-half goals in 3 of last 5 matches.
- Groningen scored 2+ second-half goals in 2 of last 5 matches.
- Total goals in last 2 H2Hs: 4 and 5, with multiple second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Groningen's away defensive record is poor, and Heracles have managed to score at home occasionally, making a clean sheet unlikely.
- Groningen kept only 2 clean sheets in last 15 matches.
- Heracles scored in 2 of last 5 home matches.
- Groningen conceded in 4 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHeracles Almelo to scoreEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate above-average corners, and recent H2H saw high corner counts, but Heracles' low corner output at home adds uncertainty.
- Heracles average 4.2 corners per game, Groningen 6.5.
- Combined average corners in Heracles matches: 10.7; in Groningen matches: 12.5.
- Last H2H (Aug 2025): 13 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent card counts, and Heracles' desperation to avoid relegation may lead to more fouls and cards.
- Heracles average 2.1 yellow cards per game, Groningen 2.0.
- Heracles received 3+ cards in 3 of last 5 matches.
- Groningen received 2+ cards in 3 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L4-0GroningenvHeraclesAug 29, 2025ERE

L4-1GroningenvHeraclesApr 23, 2025ERE

D1-1HeraclesvGroningenJan 28, 2025ERE

L2-0GroningenvHeraclesAug 2, 2024FRI

W0-1GroningenvHeraclesApr 24, 2022ERE

Groningen: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Eredivisie 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Heracles Almelo Relegation - Eerste Divisie	33	5	4	24	34-83	19	LLLLL
9	Groningen Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)	33	13	6	14	47-44	45	WLLDW

26pt gap between teamsHeracles Almelo in relegation zone

Recent Form

Heracles Almelo

L0-3TelstarMay 10ERE

L0-1PEC ZwolleMay 3ERE

L0-2FC VolendamApr 26ERE

L0-3AjaxApr 11ERE

L1-4HeerenveenApr 5ERE

D1-1ExcelsiorMar 20ERE

L0-4AZ AlkmaarMar 15ERE

D0-0UtrechtMar 6ERE

L1-3PSV EindhovenFeb 28ERE

L0-4GO Ahead EaglesFeb 22ERE

L0-1NAC BredaFeb 14ERE

L1-4NEC NijmegenFeb 7ERE

W2-1Fortuna SittardFeb 1ERE

L2-4FeyenoordJan 25ERE

L0-2TwenteJan 18ERE

Groningen

W2-1NEC NijmegenMay 10ERE

L2-3ExcelsiorMay 2ERE

L1-3FeyenoordApr 25ERE

D0-0GO Ahead EaglesApr 11ERE

W2-0TelstarApr 4ERE

W3-0AZ AlkmaarMar 22ERE

D1-1PEC ZwolleMar 13ERE

W3-1AjaxMar 7ERE

L2-3FC VolendamMar 1ERE

L1-2TwenteFeb 22ERE

L1-2UtrechtFeb 14ERE

L1-2PSV EindhovenFeb 8ERE

L0-2Sparta RotterdamJan 31ERE

L1-2Fortuna SittardJan 25ERE

W2-0HeerenveenJan 18ERE

Squad & Injuries

Heracles Almelo

33 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Groningen

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Groningen

Draw or Groningen

Over 3.5

Over 1.5

Over 3.5

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Over 1.5

Heracles Almelo to score

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Heracles Almelo

Groningen

Squad & Injuries

Heracles Almelo

Groningen