Zalgiris Vilnius4Suduva Marijampole0

HT 2–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 11:15 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges1–325%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 16:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Sūduva's title chase meets Žalgiris Vilnius' push for a European place, but the fixture itself has been tight: the last meeting finished 0-0 and Sūduva have scored at most once in each of the last five.

A Žalgiris win is the likeliest single result, though 2.15 asks more than their home form supports. The better prices are in the first half — no goal before the break at 2.9 and the half-time draw at 2.2.

Context

Kauno Žalgiris lead on 51 points with Sūduva one behind, so this trip is one of the few remaining chances for Sūduva to stay in touch before the sides meet in Marijampolė on 19 October. Žalgiris Vilnius are chasing a different prize: third place and the last European place, with TransINVEST and Banga also in that fight. Both clubs therefore need points here for reasons beyond the fixture itself, and results elsewhere on the same weekend can reorder the top of the table within hours. The standings are those going into the closing rounds, so the gap can change before kick-off.
- Sūduva hold 50 points to Kauno Žalgiris's 51 at the top of the A Lyga going into the closing rounds.
- Žalgiris Vilnius remain in the contest for third place and the last European place, alongside TransINVEST and Banga.
- Sūduva and Kauno Žalgiris meet in Marijampolė on 19 October 2026, a fixture that could decide the title.
- The Žalgiris v Sūduva game features among the weekend's headline Baltic fixtures.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 16:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Plūkas was in goal when Sūduva lost top spot in the 1-1 draw at Hegelmann on 20 September, injured as he tried to keep out the stoppage-time penalty, and he is out for the rest of the season. Sūduva must now finish a title race they trail by one point without the goalkeeper who had been playing for them. Three social-media accounts carry the detail rather than the club, so the goalkeeping change is treated as reported, and nothing has emerged about how his replacement has performed. That limits how far Sūduva's defensive stability can be read from this alone.
- Ignas Plūkas was taken off by ambulance with an elbow injury after trying to keep out Wesley Gabriel's 90+5' penalty that levelled Hegelmann 1-1 with Sūduva on 20 September 2026.
- He is out for the rest of the season and had also played for Hegelmann earlier in his career.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 16:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Their home matches in this sample have always been decided, and six wins from eight is the main argument for the home side here. The same window shows a much weaker travelling record — one win, one draw and four defeats in six away games — so the venue is doing much of the work. It is not an airtight base: they lost two of those eight home matches, and Sūduva arrive with six wins from eight away games of their own.
- Žalgiris Vilnius' home split covers eight matches from 16 July to 16 September 2026.
- The record is six wins and two defeats, with no draws.
Only four defeats in 28 league games is the clearest statement of why this trip to Vilnius is not a formality for the home side, and 11 draws show how often they take a point when they cannot win. Their away record of six wins, five draws and four defeats in 15 matches, with 21 scored and 19 conceded, is competitive rather than cautious. The caveat is that a draw-heavy season leaves games unsettled rather than won.
- Sūduva's 2026 A Lyga record: 28 played, 13 wins, 11 draws, 4 defeats, 39 goals for and 25 against.
- Away record this season: 15 played, 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, 21 scored and 19 conceded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Žalgiris's strong home record and recent record in this fixture outweigh Sūduva's better season-long numbers.
- Žalgiris's home split in the tracked window reads 6 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats from 8 matches, scoring 2.75 per game
- Žalgiris have won three of the last five meetings and the two most recent games at Vilnius finished 1-0 to them
- Sūduva concede 0.86 per game in the window but lost 5-1 at Kauno Žalgiris on 9 September
- Sūduva's first-choice goalkeeper is out for the rest of the season
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonZalgiris VilniusEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
First halves in these teams' recent matches have usually ended level.
- Žalgiris were level at half-time in four of their last six matches
- Sūduva were level at half-time in three of their last six
- Both teams average below one first-half goal per game in the window
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Žalgiris score heavily after half-time in their home matches.
- Žalgiris average 1.875 second-half goals at home in the tracked window
- Sūduva average 0.875 second-half goals conceded away in the window
- Žalgiris scored after half-time in three of their last six matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonZalgiris VilniusEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Žalgiris's strong home record and recent record in this fixture outweigh Sūduva's better season-long numbers. Sūduva have the stronger overall record, concede rarely and have lost only once in their tracked window.
- Žalgiris's home split in the tracked window reads 6 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats from 8 matches, scoring 2.75 per game
- Žalgiris have won three of the last five meetings and the two most recent games at Vilnius finished 1-0 to them
- Sūduva are second on 50 points with 13 wins, 11 draws and 4 defeats
- Their away split in the window is 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat with 1.875 goals scored per game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonZalgiris Vilnius or Suduva MarijampoleEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Žalgiris carry the stronger half-time record but rarely lead before the break themselves. First halves in these teams' recent matches have usually ended level.
- Žalgiris average 0.875 first-half goals at home in the window and concede 0.75
- Sūduva average 0.625 first-half goals away and concede 0.375
- Žalgiris were level at half-time in four of their last six matches
- Sūduva were level at half-time in three of their last six
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonZalgiris Vilnius or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Recent meetings between these sides have been low-scoring and Sūduva concede little.
- The last five meetings produced eight goals, an average of 1.6
- Sūduva concede 0.86 per game with six clean sheets in 14 tracked matches
- The most recent meeting was 0-0 and the two before it at Vilnius finished 1-0
- Sūduva's away split shows 1.25 goals conceded per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sūduva's defence is the strongest in the tracked sample and Žalgiris have repeatedly kept them out.
- Sūduva kept six clean sheets in 14 tracked matches and concede 0.86 per game
- Sūduva failed to score in three of the last five meetings
- The last meeting finished 0-0 in Marijampolė
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Žalgiris have been held to a goal or less in most of their recent matches, and Sūduva defend well.
- Žalgiris scored one goal or fewer in four of their last six matches
- The last two meetings at Vilnius finished 1-0 to Žalgiris
- Sūduva kept six clean sheets in 14 tracked matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostZalgiris Vilnius under 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Žalgiris have kept Sūduva to one goal at most in each of the last five meetings.
- Sūduva scored 0, 1, 0, 1 and 0 in the last five meetings
- Žalgiris kept clean sheets in 2 of their 8 home matches in the window
- Sūduva were held to a single goal or none in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSuduva Marijampole under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sūduva's away scoring rate and Žalgiris's home concession rate both point to the visitors scoring.
- Sūduva average 1.875 goals in their 8 away matches in the window
- Žalgiris concede 1.75 per game at home in the window
- Sūduva scored in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSuduva Marijampole to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Žalgiris's home scoring rate makes a blank unlikely.
- Žalgiris score 2.75 per home match in the window
- Žalgiris scored 2, 1 and 3 in their last three home league games
- Sūduva concede 1.25 per game away in the window
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonZalgiris Vilnius to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Žalgiris rarely keep clean sheets, so a home win is more likely to come with a goal conceded.
- Žalgiris kept only three clean sheets in 14 tracked matches
- Sūduva average 1.875 goals in their 8 away matches in the window
- Žalgiris's home split includes one clean sheet in eight matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roughly half of these teams' recent matches have had a first-half goal, at an average near one per game.
- The last 12 matches involving these teams produced 11 first-half goals
- Žalgiris's tracked matches average 1.5 first-half goals in total; Sūduva's average 0.93
- Six of those 12 matches had at least one first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals from both teams have been rare in these sides' matches.
- Sūduva average 0.64 first-half goals scored and 0.29 conceded across 14 tracked matches
- Žalgiris average 0.57 first-half goals scored and 0.93 conceded across 14 tracked matches
- No match in either team's last six saw both sides score in the first half
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The most recent meetings have been low-scoring and second halves here are often quiet.
- Three of Žalgiris's last six matches produced no second-half goal
- Four of the last five meetings finished with two goals or fewer in total
- Sūduva concede 0.57 second-half goals per game across 14 tracked matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance57%