Richmond Kickers3One Knoxville SC2

HT 2–2Sat 3 Oct 2026, 22:07 Settling…

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 03:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Richmond's home form against Knoxville's season of draws is the tension: the hosts win at home yet concede heavily, while Knoxville have drawn six of 14 and won twice on the road.

Richmond's record at this ground makes them the likelier winner, and both teams scoring fits the pattern. Three quoted prices hold up — Under 4.5 goals at 2.3, Richmond at 4.33 and either team to win at 1.8; the draw at 1.88 and Knoxville at 2.7 do not.

Context

No availability, squad or research news was returned, so nothing current changes the picture. The sporting interest comes from the split between Richmond's home record and their season-long defending, and from a head-to-head run at this ground.

Richmond's eight home league matches have produced an even 1.5 goals for and 1.5 against per game, the base for their 3W-2D-3L home split.
This is the foundation of Richmond's case: at home they have kept games close and taken seven points from eight at their own ground. The season-long figure of 2.33 conceded per match shows how much of their record depends on playing here.
- Home split: 3W-2D-3L in 8 league matches (18 Jul–3 Oct 2026)
- 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per home match
- One home clean sheet in eight matches
Knoxville's record is built on avoiding defeat: 4W-6D-4L, with 11 of 14 matches seeing both teams score.
Six draws in 14 tells you this opponent is comfortable in tight games, so a level match or a one-goal margin is a normal outcome for them rather than a surprise. Their threat at Richmond rests on that habit of staying in contests.
- Overall record: 4W-6D-4L in 14 league matches (15 Jul–27 Sep 2026)
- 1.29 scored and 1.36 conceded per match
- Both teams scored in 11 of 14 matches
- Two clean sheets in 14 matches
That 2-1 was a one-goal game in which both sides scored, the sort of margin this fixture has produced.
A one-goal home win is the reference point for this fixture, suggesting Richmond can edge a close game here without running away with it. It also warns against expecting a comfortable margin either way.
- 4 Oct 2025, USL League One: Richmond Kickers 2-1 One Knoxville
- Both teams scored; winning margin of one goal
The March 2026 meeting was settled by a single goal, with Knoxville keeping Richmond out.
It is a reminder that Knoxville can take the points in this fixture even when they are not creating much, and that Richmond's edge at home is recent rather than long-established.
- 27 Mar 2026, USL League One: One Knoxville 1-0 Richmond Kickers
- Knoxville won by one goal with a clean sheet

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 4.33
The read
Richmond's season leans on home form and they have beaten Knoxville in each of the last two meetings at this ground, while Knoxville concede regularly on the road.
- Richmond home split: 3W-2D-3L in 8, 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded per home game
- Richmond overall: 4W-2D-9L in 15, 2.33 conceded per game
- One Knoxville away split: 2W-2D-3L in 7, 1.57 conceded per away game
- Richmond won the two most recent home meetings in this fixture 2-1 and 1-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerRichmond KickersMarket price4.33Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring is low for both sides, especially Knoxville, so a level opening period is the most likely single outcome.
- Knoxville overall first half: 0.29 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- Richmond overall first half: 0.47 scored, 1.6 conceded per game
- Knoxville have scored once before half-time in their last six matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams do most of their scoring after the break and their expected second-half output is close, so a level period is the most likely single result.
- Knoxville away second half: 1.14 scored, 0.86 conceded per game
- Richmond home second half: 0.88 scored, 0.38 conceded per game
- Knoxville score 1.0 per game in second halves versus 0.29 in first halves
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Richmond's season leans on home form and they have beaten Knoxville in each of the last two meetings at this ground, while Knoxville concede regularly on the road. Knoxville have the steadier season record and have won two of their last four away games, while Richmond's defensive numbers across the season are poor.
- Richmond home split: 3W-2D-3L in 8, 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded per home game
- Richmond overall: 4W-2D-9L in 15, 2.33 conceded per game
- Knoxville overall: 4W-6D-4L in 14, 1.29 scored and 1.36 conceded per game
- Knoxville away: 2W-2D-3L in 7, 1.29 scored and 1.57 conceded per away game
BetBugs · Double ChanceRichmond Kickers or One Knoxville SCMarket price1.80Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's home first-half scoring edge over Knoxville's very low away first-half output gives the home side the better chance of an interval lead. First-half scoring is low for both sides, especially Knoxville, so a level opening period is the most likely single outcome.
- Richmond home first half: 0.63 scored, 1.13 conceded per game
- Knoxville away first half: 0.14 scored, 0.71 conceded per game
- Knoxville overall first half: 0.29 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- Richmond overall first half: 0.47 scored, 1.6 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfRichmond Kickers or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams' home and away goal totals sit just under three per game, which makes five goals an unusual outcome.
- Richmond home games: 3.0 total goals per match (1.5 for, 1.5 against)
- Knoxville away games: 2.86 total goals per match (1.29 for, 1.57 against)
- Richmond home matches have not regularly passed five goals; the 2-5 at Westchester was away
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 4.5Market price2.30Estimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides concede regularly and have scored in the large majority of their games, with Richmond finding the net in nearly every home match.
- Richmond: both teams scored in 11 of 15 matches, 6 of 8 at home
- Knoxville: both teams scored in 11 of 14, 6 of 7 away
- Richmond have kept 1 clean sheet in 15; Knoxville have none in 7 away games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's home output has been modest and their last two home matches produced only one goal each.
- Richmond home scoring: 1.5 per game across 8 home matches
- Richmond scored once in each of their last two home league matches
- Knoxville concede 1.57 per away game, which caps Richmond's expected output
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalRichmond Kickers under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Knoxville's away goal rate sits below one and a half per game, making a single goal or none the more likely return.
- Knoxville away scoring: 1.29 per game across 7 away matches
- Knoxville overall: 1.29 scored per game in 14 matches
- Richmond home conceding: 1.5 per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalOne Knoxville SC under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's home defence has rarely completed a match without conceding.
- Richmond home clean sheets: 1 in 8
- Knoxville have scored in each of their last four away matches
- Knoxville score 1.29 per away game
BetBugs · Team to ScoreOne Knoxville SC to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Knoxville have conceded in every away match this season, and Richmond score regularly at home.
- Knoxville away clean sheets: 0 in 7
- Richmond score 1.5 per home game
- Knoxville concede 1.57 per away game
BetBugs · Team to ScoreRichmond Kickers to scoreEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Richmond's home first-half total with Knoxville's away figure points to roughly one goal before the break.
- Richmond home first halves: 1.75 total goals per game (0.63 for, 1.13 against)
- Knoxville away first halves: 0.86 total goals per game (0.14 for, 0.71 against)
- Three of Knoxville's last four away matches had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The first half is unlikely to produce a goal for each side given Knoxville's very low first-half scoring.
- Knoxville away first half: 0.14 goals scored per game
- Knoxville have scored once before half-time in their last six matches
- Richmond home first-half goals against: 1.13 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
An expected second-half total of about 1.6 goals puts the under slightly ahead of the over at this line.
- Richmond home second halves total 1.25 goals per game
- Knoxville away second halves total 2.0 goals per game
- Richmond overall second half: 0.87 scored, 0.73 conceded per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%