Botafogo SP2Ponte Preta0

HT 2–0Tue 29 Sept 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 13–7On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 18:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom club Ponte Preta, on 13 points, visit a Botafogo SP side sitting just above the relegation cut, and the hosts' three straight home defeats stop it being a formality.

Botafogo SP are still the likelier winners, but the first half to end level at 2.8, the match draw at 5.75, under 0.5 first-half goals at 3.4 and under 2.5 goals at 2.25 are the prices that hold up.

Context

The two clubs occupy opposite ends of the same fight: Botafogo-SP's 31 points leave them immediately above the four-team relegation cut, while Ponte Preta's 13 have kept them last for weeks. A home win would give the hosts breathing room with nine rounds left, whereas an away victory would do less for the visitors than the table gap suggests. Botafogo-SP's own position also means the hosts cannot treat this as a routine home assignment.
- Ponte Preta are bottom with 13 points after 29 rounds.
- Botafogo-SP are 16th on 31 points, the first place outside the relegation zone.
- Ponte Preta's win over CRB was their first in nine rounds of Série B.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 18:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Hygor is Botafogo-SP's listed number nine and the reference point of a front line that has scored 37 goals across all competitions this season, the second-fewest of any Série B club. Losing him would force a reworked attack for a home fixture against the bottom club, where the hosts carry the greater share of the attacking burden. Friday's on-pitch work was a first step rather than a return to full training, so a start remains genuinely open.
- Hygor went onto the field and did activities on Friday, 25 September, but did not train with the squad.
- He remains a doubt for Botafogo-SP's match against Ponte Preta on 29 September.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 18:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Ponte Preta have scored only 21 goals across all competitions this season, the lowest total in Série B, and arrive bottom of the table needing points from a direct relegation fixture. A newly eligible senior forward widens the attacking options for a side that has struggled all year to turn possession into goals. The deal closed only days before kickoff, so how quickly he can be integrated remains unclear.
- Danilo Peu, a 23-year-old forward formerly of Paysandu, was registered in the CBF's Boletim Informativo Diário.
- He is available to make his debut against Botafogo-SP on 29 September.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 18:31 · Europe/Bucharest
The goalless draw in Campinas on 1 June is also the last time Ponte Preta kept a clean sheet for a full 90 minutes. Botafogo-SP's failure to beat the division's bottom club sits awkwardly beside a home fixture the table frames as one of their more winnable remaining assignments. The all-time series is close — four Botafogo-SP wins against five for Ponte Preta with five draws — so the head-to-head offers little separation between the sides.
- The first-turn meeting in Campinas ended 0-0.
- Ceará, Avaí, América-MG, Athletic, Náutico and CRB all dropped points to Ponte Preta and still beat them.
- The all-time series stands at Botafogo-SP 4 wins, Ponte Preta 5 and 5 draws.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 18:31 · Europe/BucharestFotMob match pagewww.fotmob.com · 26 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Botafogo SP are 19 points clear of the bottom club, who have not won away in the tracked window, though Botafogo SP's own three straight home defeats keep the gap modest.
- Botafogo SP home league split: 23 scored, 21 conceded in 14 games
- Ponte Preta away league split: 7 scored, 39 conceded in 14 games
- Ponte Preta have 0 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats in 8 away matches in the tracked window
- Botafogo SP have lost their last three home matches 1-3, 1-3 and 1-2
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBotafogo SPEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.80
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring is low and Botafogo SP have repeatedly reached the break level recently.
- Five of Botafogo SP's last six matches were level at half-time
- Botafogo SP average 0.53 first-half goals scored and 0.40 conceded across 15 matches
- Ponte Preta average 0.33 first-half goals scored across 15 matches
- The last two meetings finished 0-0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams trade goals after the break and Ponte Preta rarely score there, making a level second half plausible.
- Botafogo SP's home second-half record is 1.0 scored and 1.38 conceded per match
- Ponte Preta score 0.13 second-half goals per away match
- Ponte Preta drew the second half 0-0 in two of their last four matches
- Five of Botafogo SP's last six matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo SP are 19 points clear of the bottom club, who have not won away in the tracked window, though Botafogo SP's own three straight home defeats keep the gap modest. Two of the last five meetings were goalless and both sides have drawn regularly this season, so a share of the points is plausible.
- Botafogo SP home league split: 23 scored, 21 conceded in 14 games
- Ponte Preta away league split: 7 scored, 39 conceded in 14 games
- The last two meetings, June 2026 and February 2025, both finished 0-0
- Botafogo SP's season record is 8 wins, 8 draws and 13 defeats in 29 games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBotafogo SP or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta concede early on their travels while scoring little before the break, which favours a home lead at half-time. Both teams' first-half scoring is low and Botafogo SP have repeatedly reached the break level recently.
- Botafogo SP average 0.63 first-half goals scored and 0.38 conceded per home match
- Ponte Preta concede 1.5 first-half goals per away match
- Five of Botafogo SP's last six matches were level at half-time
- Botafogo SP average 0.53 first-half goals scored and 0.40 conceded across 15 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBotafogo SP or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both season home and away splits average more than three goals a game and Botafogo SP's recent home matches have all passed 2.5.
- Botafogo SP's 14 home league games have produced 44 goals
- Ponte Preta's 14 away league games have produced 46 goals
- Botafogo SP's last three home matches finished 1-3, 1-3 and 1-2
- Ponte Preta conceded six at Londrina on 15 September
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Ponte Preta's away scoring is the weakest part of the evidence, making one team failing to score the likelier outcome.
- Ponte Preta have one goal in eight tracked away matches
- Ponte Preta failed to score in their last three away matches, including a 0-6 at Londrina
- Ponte Preta have six goals in 15 tracked matches
- Botafogo SP kept two clean sheets in 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo SP have conceded in every tracked home game, so a shut-out is the less likely side of this market.
- Botafogo SP have no clean sheet in eight tracked home matches
- Botafogo SP conceded 21 goals in 14 home league games
- Botafogo SP conceded in each of their last six matches
- Botafogo SP kept two clean sheets in 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostPonte Preta to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo SP have not kept a home clean sheet in the tracked window, so a win is more likely to come with a goal conceded.
- Botafogo SP conceded in all eight tracked home matches
- Botafogo SP conceded in each of their last six matches
- Botafogo SP's home league split shows 21 goals conceded in 14 games
- Ponte Preta scored in their 1-0 win over CRB on 20 September
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's habit of conceding before half-time gives a decent chance of at least one first-half goal.
- Botafogo SP average 0.63 first-half goals at home
- Ponte Preta concede 1.5 first-half goals per away match
- Ponte Preta conceded three first-half goals at Londrina on 15 September
- Botafogo SP's last six matches produced first-half goals in four
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving these teams have produced goals at a rate that makes two after the break slightly more likely than not.
- Botafogo SP average 1.0 second-half goals scored and 1.38 conceded at home
- Ponte Preta concede 1.63 second-half goals per away match
- Botafogo SP's last six matches produced nine second-half goals
- Ponte Preta conceded three second-half goals at Londrina
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Corner totals in these two teams' recent matches sit close to the line, with several games below it.
- Botafogo SP's tracked home matches average 12.9 corners combined
- Two of Botafogo SP's last six matches had seven corners or fewer
- Ponte Preta average only 3.25 corners away
- Ponte Preta's total corner counts in the last six were 10, 10, 10, 11, 14 and 10
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta concede a very high volume of shots away from home, and recent match totals sit well above this line.
- Botafogo SP average 14.1 shots for and 12.0 against per home match
- Ponte Preta average 9.5 shots for and 22.6 against per away match
- Ponte Preta's last three away matches had shot totals of 37, 34 and 42
- Botafogo SP's last three matches had shot totals of 32, 30 and 22
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 23.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta allow a heavy volume of on-target attempts away, and recent totals clear this line comfortably.
- Botafogo SP average 3.9 shots on target for and 4.1 against per home match
- Ponte Preta average 2.8 for and 8.9 against per away match
- Ponte Preta's last three away matches had on-target totals of 14, 9 and 14
- Botafogo SP's last three matches had on-target totals of 6, 9 and 6
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 6.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card counts in both teams' recent matches mostly sit at or below this line.
- Botafogo SP average 2.2 yellow cards per match and Ponte Preta 2.87
- Botafogo SP's last six matches averaged under five cards
- Ponte Preta's recent matches averaged just over four cards
- Botafogo SP's home matches average 4.0 combined yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%