CA Los Andes2Deportivo Moron1

HT 0–1Sun 27 Sept 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges3–443%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 03:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Second-placed Morón visit a Los Andes side with four draws in its last five league games and three goals in six home matches.

Morón to win or draw at 1.45 and to be level or ahead at half-time at 1.25 are two of the four quoted prices that offer something, alongside Morón to win at 3.0 and to lead at half-time at 3.8. Under 2.5 goals at 1.35 and no-both-score at 1.55 are too short.

Context

Monasterio's appointment reset Los Andes' coaching staff four matches before this meeting, so his shape and personnel choices are still the newest variable in how the home side sets up. Until results follow, the team's approach is harder to read from recent scorelines alone. His own record against Morón is split across three meetings — one win, one draw, one loss — offering no clear guide either way.
- César Monasterio, 55, was placed in charge of Los Andes in early September 2026, succeeding Leonardo Lemos, and directed the side for the first time against San Telmo on 5 September.
- Los Andes have not won any of their first three matches with Monasterio in charge, drawing with San Telmo, Defensores de Belgrano and San Miguel before losing to Colón.
- Monasterio has faced Deportivo Morón three times as a coach, recording one win, one draw and one loss.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 03:29 · Europe/Bucharest
Two defensive absences limit how Monasterio can rotate or cover at the back for a home fixture against a Morón side that has scored freely at times this season. Carrasco and Rodríguez are both defenders, so the reduction lands on a single unit rather than scattered across the squad. The practical weight is uncertain because neither player's role in the current starting XI is documented, making this a thinner back line rather than a definitively weakened one.
- CA Los Andes will be without Gabriel Carrasco because of a knee injury.
- Franco Rodríguez is unavailable for Los Andes with a cruciate ligament tear.
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 03:29 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt match previewwww.transfermarkt.us · 27 Sep 2026
Away supporters have been excluded from most Primera Nacional grounds, and this fixture is one of only three this weekend where both sets will be present, with Morón given space at the Gallardón. An away allocation of roughly 850 already sold, against estimates reaching 2,000, changes the atmosphere and the security operation around a ground that has recently hosted only home supporters. The effect on play is indirect, but a full away end is a real change in match conditions rather than routine background.
- Los Andes will again admit visiting supporters, with Deportivo Morón's followers given space at the club's Eduardo Gallardón ground for the round 31 fixture on Sunday 27 September.
- Three Primera Nacional fixtures — Almagro against Nueva Chicago, Midland against Tristán Suárez and Los Andes against Morón — are set to be played with both sets of supporters, as visiting crowds return progressively to Buenos Aires provincial football.
- Morón had sold about 850 tickets for the away section by 23 September, with between 1,500 and 2,000 expected to be made available to their supporters.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 03:29 · Europe/Bucharest
Morón's away scoring is concentrated before half-time and their away defending drops off after it, ahead of a trip to a Los Andes side that has scored just one first-half goal at home in six matches in the same window. The split points to the visitors' best spell coming early, though it also shows Morón conceding more than a goal a game after the interval on their travels, so a lead would be far from secure.
- Morón's eight away league matches in the tracked window (13 June – 13 September 2026) average 0.88 goals scored and 0.13 conceded in first halves.
- The same eight away matches average 0.25 goals scored and 1.13 conceded in second halves.
- Across those eight away games Morón record three wins, two draws and three defeats.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.00
The read
Morón are the stronger side over the season and have scored twice in each of their last three wins, against a home team that rarely scores.
- Second in the table with 55 points and 16 wins from 30 matches
- Away record: 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, 19 scored and 19 conceded
- Won three of the last four, scoring twice in each
- Los Andes failed to score in 9 of their 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDeportivo MoronEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Los Andes start quietly at home and Morón concede very little before the break on their travels.
- Los Andes have scored one and conceded one first-half goal in six home matches in the window
- Morón concede 0.13 first-half goals per away match
- Morón's overall first-half record is 1.07 scored and 0.2 conceded
- Los Andes' overall first-half record is 0.33 scored and 0.6 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side produces many second-half goals in these venues, which makes a level half the most likely outcome.
- Los Andes score 0.67 and concede 0.5 second-half goals at home in the window
- Morón score 0.25 second-half goals away
- Los Andes kept 3 clean sheets in 6 home matches
- The last two meetings finished 0-0
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Los Andes draw very often at home and their fixtures produce few goals, with recent meetings between the clubs ending goalless. Morón are the stronger side over the season and have scored twice in each of their last three wins, against a home team that rarely scores.
- 13 draws in 30 league games this season, including 8 of 15 at home
- Los Andes' last five league results: one defeat and four draws
- Second in the table with 55 points and 16 wins from 30 matches
- Away record: 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, 19 scored and 19 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Deportivo MoronEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Los Andes start quietly at home and Morón concede very little before the break on their travels. Morón do most of their scoring before the break, while Los Andes have produced almost nothing in first halves at home.
- Los Andes have scored one and conceded one first-half goal in six home matches in the window
- Morón concede 0.13 first-half goals per away match
- Morón average 1.07 first-half goals overall and 0.88 away
- Los Andes average 0.6 first-half goals conceded per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Deportivo MoronEstimated chance83%

Goals6 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
The home side's matches are consistently low-scoring and recent meetings between these clubs have produced almost no goals.
- Los Andes home league games average 1.2 goals in total
- Los Andes average 0.67 scored and 1.07 conceded
- Morón's away matches average 1.13 scored and 1.25 conceded
- Three of the last four meetings produced one goal or fewer
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Los Andes score rarely at home and the recent meetings between the clubs produced no goals at all.
- Los Andes failed to score in 9 of their 15 tracked matches
- Los Andes have scored just 3 goals in 6 home matches in the window
- Morón were kept out in 3 of their 8 away matches
- The last two meetings both ended 0-0
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's scoring output is very low both across the season and in the recent home sample.
- Los Andes have scored 3 goals in 6 home matches in the tracked window
- They failed to score in 3 of those 6 home matches
- Los Andes average 0.67 goals scored per tracked match
- Season home total: 11 goals in 15 league games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCA Los Andes under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Los Andes defend well at their own ground and Morón's away scoring is ordinary rather than prolific.
- Morón average 1.13 goals away in the tracked window
- Morón failed to score in 3 of their 8 away matches
- Los Andes kept 3 clean sheets in 6 home matches
- Los Andes concede 0.67 goals per home match in the window
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDeportivo Moron under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Morón score in the large majority of their recent matches, which makes a home shutout the less likely outcome.
- Morón have scored in 5 of their 8 away matches in the window
- Morón have scored in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Los Andes kept 3 clean sheets in 6 home matches
- Los Andes conceded 7 goals in 15 league home games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDeportivo Moron to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Morón concede in almost every away game, so keeping Los Andes out for the whole match is the less likely result.
- Morón kept 1 clean sheet in 8 away matches in the window
- Morón'S away defence concedes 1.25 goals per match
- Los Andes scored in 3 of their last 6 home matches
- Morón conceded in 7 of their 8 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA Los Andes to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Morón rarely combine a win with a clean sheet away from home, having kept one shutout in eight away matches.
- Morón conceded in all three of their recent wins
- Morón kept 1 clean sheet in 8 away matches in the window
- Morón's away defence concedes 1.25 goals per match
- Los Andes have scored in 3 of their last 6 home matches
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Morón score early regularly, giving a decent chance of at least one first-half goal even with Los Andes' quiet starts.
- Morón average 1.07 first-half goals overall and 0.88 away
- Morón scored in the first half in four of their last six matches
- Los Andes average 0.6 first-half goals conceded overall
- Los Andes have scored one first-half goal in six home matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Los Andes hardly score before half-time at home and Morón concede very little early, so both scoring is unlikely.
- Los Andes have scored one first-half goal in six home matches in the window
- Morón conceded 0.2 first-half goals per tracked match
- Morón's away first-half defence is 0.13 conceded per match
- Los Andes average 0.17 first-half goals at home
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance89%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The second-half scoring records of both teams at these venues are low, pointing to a quiet final period.
- Four of Los Andes' last six matches had one or no second-half goals
- Los Andes score 0.67 second-half goals at home in the window
- Morón score 0.25 second-half goals away
- Los Andes concede 0.5 second-half goals per home match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance72%

Prediction history

CA Los Andes: 2/5 recent goals projections matched

2 of 5 comparable goals projections involving CA Los Andes matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for CA Los Andes5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Primera Nacional