Rilski Sportist Samokov1Pirin Blagoevgrad0

HT 1–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 11:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom club Pirin, still without a point from ten league games, visit a Rilski side that has won three of five at home.

Rilski should win, though they have one clean sheet in five home league games and Pirin scored last time out. The 1.18 home win price is short of what the record justifies. The half-time draw at 2.8 is the one reviewed price with a case, with both teams scoring little before the break.

Context

Pirin arrive at the foot of the table with nothing to show from ten league games.
It sets the terms of the fixture: the visitors have conceded more than three goals per game and have scored once in five away league matches, which is why they start as clear underdogs. The counterweight is that Rilski have kept one clean sheet in five home league games, and Pirin did find the net in their most recent match on 20 September.
- Second League standings fetched 2026-09-24: Pirin are 18th with 0 points from 10 games, 4 goals scored and 32 conceded.
- Their away league record in the same snapshot: 5 matches, 0W-0D-5L, 1 goal scored and 18 conceded.
- Rilski are 8th on 15 points from 10 games (4W-3D-3L), including 3W-1D-1L at home.
Rilski's home results have carried them to mid-table.
The home record is strong but rarely airtight, which matters against a side with one away goal all season: a single Pirin goal would change the shape of the afternoon. In their three most recent home league matches Rilski scored twice each time, beating Montana 2-1, Sportist Svoge 2-1 and Yantra 2019 2-0, with only the Yantra match ending without a goal conceded.
- Home league split over a 5-match window from 2026-07-28 to 2026-09-13: 3W-1D-1L, 8 goals scored and 5 conceded (1.6 for and 1.0 against per game).
- One clean sheet across those five home league matches.
- Three most recent home league matches: 2-1 v Montana (2026-08-22), 2-1 v Sportist Svoge (2026-09-02), 2-0 v Yantra 2019 (2026-09-13).
The Nesebar defeat is the sharpest single result in Pirin's recent record.
One result is not a trend on its own, but the margin shows how quickly games have got away from Pirin, and their two away league matches since ended 0-2 at Yantra 2019 on 2 September and 0-3 at Marek on 13 September. They did score in their most recent match, a 1-2 home defeat by Fratria on 20 September.
- Second League, 2026-08-23: a 0-7 away defeat at Nesebar, with two goals conceded in the first half and five after the break.
- The match is one of the six most recent Pirin league fixtures listed, dated 2026-08-23 to 2026-09-20.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 82%

−4.0ppshort

Pirin's early concessions make at least one first-half goal likely.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Rilski Sportist Samokov

1.18fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 84.7%

−10.7ppshort

Rilski have been solid at home while Pirin have lost every league match and shipped goals heavily on the road.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.50fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 66.7%

−2.7ppshort

Pirin's away attacking output is very low, so Rilski are more likely to win without conceding.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Rilski have been solid at home while Pirin have lost every league match and shipped goals heavily on the road.
- Rilski home league record: 3W-1D-1L, 8 goals scored, 5 conceded in 5.
- Pirin are bottom with 0 points from 10 league games, 4 scored and 32 conceded.
- Pirin away league record: 0W-0D-5L, 1 scored and 18 conceded.
- Rilski sit 8th with 15 points from 10 league games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRilski Sportist SamokovEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Pirin concede early and Rilski often start at home on the front foot.
- Rilski first-half goals at home: 0.6 for and 0.4 against per league match.
- Pirin first-half goals away: 0 for and 1.43 against per league match.
- Pirin trailed at half-time in five of their last six league matches.
- Rilski led at half-time in three of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonRilski Sportist SamokovEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin fade badly after half-time while Rilski are stronger in second halves at home.
- Rilski second-half goals at home: 1.0 for and 0.6 against per game.
- Pirin second-half goals away: 0.14 for and 1.86 against per game.
- Pirin lost the second half in four of their last six league matches.
- Rilski won the second half in three of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostRilski Sportist SamokovEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rilski have been solid at home while Pirin have lost every league match and shipped goals heavily on the road. Rilski can be held if they do not convert early chances, and Pirin will try to slow the tempo.
- Rilski home league record: 3W-1D-1L, 8 goals scored, 5 conceded in 5.
- Pirin are bottom with 0 points from 10 league games, 4 scored and 32 conceded.
- Rilski have drawn 3 of 10 league games.
- Rilski home record includes 1 draw in 5.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRilski Sportist Samokov or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin concede early and Rilski often start at home on the front foot. Low first-half scoring for both sides makes a level half-time score a plausible outcome.
- Rilski first-half goals at home: 0.6 for and 0.4 against per league match.
- Pirin first-half goals away: 0 for and 1.43 against per league match.
- Rilski were level at half-time in three of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonRilski Sportist Samokov or DrawEstimated chance86%

Goals4 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Pirin's heavy away defeats suggest Rilski can reach a multi-goal total.
- Pirin away league matches have produced 19 goals in 5, with Pirin conceding 18.
- Rilski home league matches average 2.6 total goals.
- Pirin have conceded 3+ goals in four of their last six league matches.
- Rilski have seen over 2.5 goals in three of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Pirin's away attacking output is very low, so Rilski are more likely to win without conceding.
- Pirin have scored 1 goal in 5 away league matches.
- Pirin have failed to score in five of their last six league matches.
- Rilski home league record: 8 scored and 5 conceded in 5, with one clean sheet.
- Rilski have kept 2 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rilski have scored at least twice in each home league win, and Pirin concede heavily away.
- Rilski scored 2+ goals in their three home league wins.
- Rilski home league average 1.6 goals for.
- Pirin away league record: 18 conceded in 5 matches.
- Pirin have conceded 18 goals in 5 away league matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostRilski Sportist Samokov over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's away attack has produced almost nothing, so keeping them under two goals is strongly supported.
- Pirin have scored 1 goal in 5 away league matches.
- Pirin have failed to score in five of their last six league matches.
- Pirin overall league record: 4 goals in 10 matches.
- Rilski home league record: 5 conceded in 5 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonPirin Blagoevgrad under 1.5Estimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rilski have not been secure enough at home to expect a shutout, despite Pirin's poor attack.
- Rilski kept 1 clean sheet in 5 home league games.
- Rilski have conceded in 4 of 5 home league matches.
- Pirin have scored 1 goal in 5 away league matches.
- Pirin have failed to score in five of their last six league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostPirin Blagoevgrad to scoreEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rilski have usually conceded at least once in home wins, making a clean-sheet win less likely.
- Rilski have 3 home league wins but only 1 home clean sheet.
- Rilski home league: 5 goals conceded in 5 matches.
- Pirin have scored 1 goal in 5 away league matches.
- Pirin have failed to score in five of their last six league matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Pirin's early concessions make at least one first-half goal likely.
- Pirin first-half goals against away: 1.43 per league match.
- Pirin conceded in the first half in five of their last six league games.
- Rilski scored first-half goals in four of their last six competitive matches.
- Rilski first-half goals for at home: 0.6 per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's first-half scoring away is almost non-existent, so both teams are unlikely to score before the break.
- Pirin have scored one first-half goal in their last six league matches.
- Pirin first-half goals away: 0 per away league game.
- Rilski first-half goals against at home: 0.4 per game.
- Rilski scored in the first half in four of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pirin's away games often open up after half-time, and Rilski are more productive late at home.
- Pirin away second-half total average 2.0 goals per league game.
- Rilski home second-half total average 1.6 goals per league game.
- Pirin conceded 2+ second-half goals in two of their last six league matches.
- Rilski scored in the second half in four of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%