Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Marek Dupnitsa1Rilski Sportist Samokov3

HT 1–2Sun 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions0–140%

Edges0–60%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 05:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Marek's perfect home record and the returns of Lyubomirov and Kaymakanski from suspension make the home-or-draw double chance at 1.67 the top value play (+18 points), with the match winner at 2.38 a secondary edge.

Expect a low-scoring game — Under 2.5 and BTTS 'no' both carry modest positive value — while the Rilski away win at 2.80 is a clear avoid.

Context

Marek Dupnitsa sit ninth in the Second League with 13 points from nine games. Their home form is the strongest part of their season so far.
Marek have won all three home league matches, scoring eight and conceding two. Their overall away record is much weaker, with one win and four defeats in six. Rilski Sportist have drawn two and lost two of four away games, scoring twice. The gap between Marek's home and away results is the main pattern here, though three home matches is a small sample.
- Marek home record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 8 goals for, 2 against in 3 matches.
- Marek away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses, 2 goals for, 7 against in 6 matches.
- Rilski Sportist away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 2 goals for, 4 against in 4 matches.
Marek captain Veselin Lyubomirov is a midfielder who has completed a six-match suspension and is eligible to face Rilski Sportist. He started none of Marek's five recent fixtures with available lineups.
His return removes a suspension-driven absence and restores an additional senior midfield option to Marek's matchday group. Because he did not start any of the five recent matches with available lineups, his match sharpness and likely role are uncertain, so the practical effect is added selection depth rather than a guaranteed starting change.
- Marek's 19 September announcement says captain Veselin Lyubomirov completed his six-match suspension and can play against Rilski Sportist.
- Vtora Liga independently reported Lyubomirov available for the Round 10 match at Bonchuk.
- V. Lyubomirov started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 05:03 · Europe/BucharestMarek 1915marek1915.com · 19 Sep 2026Vtora Ligavtoraliga.bg · 19 Sep 2026
Marek defender Hristo Kaymakanski has completed the same six-match suspension and is again available for selection against Rilski Sportist. He started none of the five recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His eligibility restores an additional defensive selection option after a prolonged enforced absence. As with Lyubomirov, no recent starts mean his immediate role is unclear, so the confirmed effect is a wider defensive pool rather than a settled change to Marek's back line.
- Marek's 19 September announcement says Hristo Kaymakanski completed his six-match suspension and can play against Rilski Sportist.
- Vtora Liga independently reported Kaymakanski available for the Round 10 match.
- H. Kaymakanski started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 05:03 · Europe/BucharestMarek 1915marek1915.com · 19 Sep 2026Vtora Ligavtoraliga.bg · 19 Sep 2026
Rilski Sportist are 11th in the Second League with 12 points from nine games. Their away form is the weakest part of their record.
Rilski Sportist have taken two points from four away matches, scoring two goals and conceding four. Their home record is much stronger with three wins from five. Marek have won all three home league games, so this away trip is a difficult one for Rilski. The four-match away sample is small, but the pattern is consistent with their overall goal output of 10 in nine games.
- Rilski Sportist away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 2 goals for, 4 against in 4 matches.
- Rilski Sportist home record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 8 goals for, 5 against in 5 matches.
- Rilski Sportist overall: 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses, 10 goals for, 9 against in 9 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Marek Dupnitsa or Draw

1.20fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83%

−8.0ppshort

Marek's first-half goal difference is positive (0.7 scored vs 0.4 conceded) and Rilski lead at half-time only 13% of the time, but the 1.20 price already overprices the safety.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.60fair 1.47

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both sides average under 1 goal scored per game and Rilski's away output is 0.5 goals per match, skewing the total-goals distribution under 2.5.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.78fair 1.61

BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

Rilski's weak away scoring and Marek's solid home defence (2 GA in 3 home games) make at least one clean sheet the more likely scenario.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.29fair 1.22

BetBugs 62% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' first-half scoring averages are below 1 goal combined and Rilski rarely leads at the break, pointing to a low-scoring first half.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marek's perfect home record (3-0-0, +6 GD) against Rilski's winless away form (0-2-2) is the strongest structural edge, reinforced by the confirmed return of captain Lyubomirov and Kaymakanski from suspension.
- Marek home record 2026 Second League: 3W-0D-0L, 8 goals for, 2 against in 3 home matches.
- Rilski Sportist away record: 0W-2D-2L, 2 goals for, 4 against in 4 away matches.
- Marek overall 4W-1D-4L, 10 GF / 9 GA; Rilski 3W-3D-3L, 10 GF / 9 GA after 9 rounds.
- Last 5 H2H: two draws, one Marek home win (3-0, Feb 2024), one Rilski home win (2020).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMarek DupnitsaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Marek's unbeaten home record with Rilski's inability to win away makes the home-or-draw outcome the safest result-family play, supported by the H2H draw pattern.
- Marek home: 3 wins from 3, no home defeats in 2026 Second League.
- Rilski away: 0 wins in 4, only 2 goals scored on the road.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, no Rilski away win at Marek in the sample.
- Both teams on identical 10 GF / 9 GA, but Marek's split is heavily home-weighted.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostMarek Dupnitsa or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marek's strong half-time leading rate and Rilski's tendency to trail at the break give the home side the edge in the first-half winner market.
- Marek leading at half-time in 47% of matches.
- Rilski trailing at half-time in 33% of matches, leading only 13%.
- Marek first-half goals 0.7 vs Rilski first-half goals 0.3.
- Marek home form includes early goals (3 first-half goals vs Pirin Blagoevgrad).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostMarek DupnitsaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams' low scoring output and Rilski's away struggles, the second half is more likely to be level than decisively won by either side.
- Both teams average under 1 goal per match overall, limiting second-half separation.
- Rilski away: only 2 goals in 4 away matches, often scored late or not at all.
- Marek home: 8 goals in 3 home matches, but spread across both halves.
- H2H recent meetings frequently decided by single goals or drawn.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Marek's positive first-half goal differential and Rilski's poor half-time leading rate make the home-or-draw first-half double chance the safest half-market play.
- Marek leading at half-time 47%, trailing only 27%.
- Rilski leading at half-time just 13%, trailing 33%.
- Marek first-half goal difference positive (0.7 scored vs 0.4 conceded).
- Rilski first-half goal difference negative (0.3 scored vs 0.5 conceded).
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostMarek Dupnitsa or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marek's perfect home record against Rilski's winless away form justifies backing the home side on a -0.5 handicap, though the H2H draw pattern adds risk.
- Marek home: 3W-0D-0L, +6 goal difference at home.
- Rilski away: 0W-2D-2L, -2 goal difference away.
- Marek overall 4W-1D-4L vs Rilski 3W-3D-3L.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 1 Marek home win, 1 Rilski home win.
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostMarek Dupnitsa -0.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marek's high half-time leading rate and Rilski's tendency to trail at the break make a home/home HT-FT double a plausible but lower-probability play.
- Marek leading at half-time 47% of matches.
- Marek home: 3 wins from 3, often scoring early (3 first-half goals vs Pirin).
- Rilski trailing at half-time 33%, leading only 13%.
- Rilski away: 0 wins, often chasing games.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostMarek Dupnitsa / Marek DupnitsaEstimated chance28%

Goals0 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides average under 1 goal scored per game and Rilski's away scoring is very low, so the total-goals distribution skews under 2.5 despite Marek's occasional home outbursts.
- Marek average 0.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match across last 15.
- Rilski average 0.9 scored and 1.2 conceded per match across last 15.
- Rilski away: 2 goals in 4 away matches (0.5 per game).
- Recent H2H: 0-0 draw in July 2026 friendly; low-scoring pattern in direct meetings.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rilski's weak away scoring and Marek's solid home defence (2 GA in 3 home games) make a clean sheet for at least one side the more likely scenario.
- Rilski away: 2 goals in 4 away matches, blanked in 2 of 4.
- Marek home: 2 goals conceded in 3 home matches, one clean sheet.
- Marek last 5: two 0-0/1-0 type low-scoring results mixed with a 4-2.
- H2H July 2026: 0-0; Feb 2024: 3-0 Marek.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring averages are below 1 goal combined, and Rilski rarely leads at the break, pointing to a low-scoring first half.
- Marek first-half goals average 0.7 scored, 0.4 conceded.
- Rilski first-half goals average 0.3 scored, 0.5 conceded.
- Rilski leading at half-time in only 13% of matches; trailing 33%.
- Marek leading at half-time 47%, but often via single early goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marek's strong home defensive record combined with Rilski's low away scoring output makes a home clean sheet a plausible outcome.
- Marek home: 2 goals conceded in 3 home matches (0.67 per game).
- Rilski away: 2 goals scored in 4 away matches (0.5 per game).
- Rilski blanked in 2 of 4 away matches.
- H2H July 2026: 0-0 draw.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostRilski Sportist Samokov not to scoreEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Marek's home scoring average of 2.67 goals per game makes Over 1.5 home goals a strong statistical play, supported by their perfect home record.
- Marek home: 8 goals in 3 home matches (2.67 per game).
- Marek scored 3 vs Pirin Blagoevgrad and 4 vs Dobrudzha at home.
- Rilski away: 4 goals conceded in 4 away matches (1.0 per game).
- Marek home record 3W-0D-0L with 8 GF.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMarek Dupnitsa over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rilski's away scoring is very low (0.5 per game) and Marek's home defence is solid, making Under 1.5 away goals the likely outcome.
- Rilski away: 2 goals in 4 away matches (0.5 per game).
- Rilski blanked in 2 of 4 away matches.
- Rilski overall 10 GF in 9 matches, but heavily home-weighted (8 at home).
- Marek home: 2 goals conceded in 3 home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostRilski Sportist Samokov under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marek's home dominance and Rilski's away scoring struggles make a home win-to-nil a plausible but lower-probability outcome given Marek's occasional defensive lapses.
- Marek home: 3 wins from 3, 2 goals conceded.
- Rilski away: 0 wins, 2 goals scored in 4 away matches.
- Marek home clean sheet potential: 1 clean sheet in 3 home games.
- H2H Feb 2024: Marek 3-0 Rilski at home.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance30%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Rilski have not won away all season and the 2.80 price offers no cushion against Marek's perfect home record.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D0-0Rilski SportistvMarekJul 15, 2026FRI

L3-0MarekvRilski SportistFeb 10, 2024FRI

W0-2Rilski SportistvMarekApr 7, 2021THI

L3-2MarekvRilski SportistOct 7, 2020THI

D0-0Rilski SportistvMarekMar 18, 2020THI

Marek Dupnitsa: 3 clean sheetsRilski Sportist Samokov: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Marek Dupnitsa	9	4	1	4	10-9	13	WLWDW
11	Rilski Sportist Samokov	9	3	3	3	10-9	12	WLWDW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Marek Dupnitsa

W3-0Pirin BlagoevgradSep 13SEC

L0-3Yantra 2019Sep 6SEC

W1-0NesebarSep 2SEC

D0-0Sportist SvogeAug 29SEC

W4-2DobrudzhaAug 23SEC

L0-1MontanaAug 16SEC

L0-1Etar Veliko TarnovoAug 7SEC

L1-2Spartak PlevenAug 1SEC

W1-0FratriaJul 25SEC

L0-1VihrenJul 18FRI

W2-0Pirin BlagoevgradJul 11FRI

L0-3CSKA SofiaJul 3FRI

L0-3Septemvri SofiaJun 27FRI

W1-0Etar Veliko TarnovoMay 23SEC

D1-1Hebar 1918May 15SEC

Rilski Sportist Samokov

W2-0Yantra 2019Sep 13SEC

L1-2NesebarSep 6SEC

W2-1Sportist SvogeSep 2SEC

D0-0DobrudzhaAug 29SEC

W2-1MontanaAug 22SEC

D1-1Etar Veliko TarnovoAug 15SEC

D2-2Spartak PlevenAug 9SEC

L0-1FratriaAug 1SEC

L0-1Ludogorets IIJul 28SEC

L0-2CSKA Sofia IIJul 11FRI

L0-2Lokomotiv PlovdivJul 8FRI

W1-0VihrenJul 4FRI

L0-2Arda KardzhaliJul 1FRI

W2-1Pirin Gotse DelchevMay 27THI

L1-2Botev IhtimanMay 23THI

Squad & Injuries

Marek Dupnitsa

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Rilski Sportist Samokov

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2