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Pfc NesebarRilski Sportist Samokov

Sun 6 Sept 2026, 14:006 Sept, 14:00

12Probabilities0Priced8Edges85%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 07:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Pfc Nesebar's strong home attack (11 goals in 4 games) faces a Rilski Sportist side with just 1 away goal all season and a congested schedule.

Top value lies in 'Clean Sheet - Away: No' at 1.73 (+27-point edge) and 'Over 2.5 Goals' at 2.10 (+10-point edge). Avoid 'Double Chance: Away or Draw' and 'Total Goals Away: Under 1.5' as they are overpriced.

Context

Rilski Sportist's fourth match in 16 days may affect selection and late intensity.

Nesebar sit 9th with 10 points and have scored 13 goals overall, with 11 of those coming at home.
Rilski Sportist have allowed just two goals in three away matches, so Nesebar's strong home attack will be tested. However, Nesebar's home record includes a 7-0 win over Pirin Blagoevgrad, which may inflate their scoring numbers.
- Nesebar have scored 11 goals in 4 home matches this season.
- Rilski Sportist have conceded 2 goals in 3 away matches.
Rilski Sportist enter this away match after a 2-1 home win over Sportist Svoge on 2 September.
This is their fourth fixture in 16 days, which can influence selection management and late-match physical intensity. The short recovery and travel may lead to rotation or reduced energy in the closing stages.
- Rilski Sportist beat Sportist Svoge 2-1 at home on 2 September.
- The club described the 6 September visit to Nesebar as the fourth fixture in a 16-day run.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 07:08 · Europe/BucharestRilski Sportist official websitepfcrilskisportist.com · 2 Sep 2026
Rilski Sportist are 12th with 9 points and have scored 7 goals overall.
Their away scoring record is poor, with just one goal in three games. This could limit their chances against a Nesebar side that has conceded six goals in four home matches.
- Rilski Sportist have scored 1 goal in 3 away matches.
Nesebar's overall form is LDWWW, with three wins in their last five matches.
Their home performances have been particularly impressive, with a 7-0 win over Pirin Blagoevgrad on 23 August and a 2-0 win over Dobrudzha on 10 August. However, they also lost 1-5 to Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home on 25 July, showing some inconsistency.
- Nesebar beat Pirin Blagoevgrad 7-0 at home on 23 August 2026.
- Nesebar beat Dobrudzha 2-0 at home on 10 August 2026.
- Nesebar lost 1-5 to Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home on 25 July 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Pfc Nesebar's strong home scoring and Rilski Sportist's poor away output give the hosts a clear edge, supported by motivation and structural home advantage.
- Pfc Nesebar home record: 2W 1D 1L, 11 goals scored, 6 conceded in 4 home matches.
- Rilski Sportist away record: 0W 2D 1L, 1 goal scored, 2 conceded in 3 away matches.
- Pfc Nesebar last 5 form: W W W D L (including 7-0 and 2-0 wins).
- Rilski Sportist last 5 form: W D W D D, but only 1 away goal all season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerPfc NesebarEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Rilski Sportist's away struggles and Nesebar's home strength, the double chance of home win or draw is highly likely.
- Pfc Nesebar unbeaten in 3 of 4 home matches this season.
- Rilski Sportist have not won away (0W 2D 1L) and scored only 1 away goal.
- Pfc Nesebar average 2.75 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Double ChancePfc Nesebar or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nesebar's strong first-half scoring and Rilski's slow starts make a home half-time lead likely.
- Pfc Nesebar led at half-time in 53% of matches overall.
- Rilski Sportist trailed at half-time in 40% of matches.
- Pfc Nesebar scored first-half goals in 4 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerPfc NesebarEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a half-time lead is possible given Nesebar's fast starts, but confidence is low due to Rilski's resilience.
- Pfc Nesebar led at half-time in 53% of matches and won 43% overall.
- Rilski Sportist trailed at half-time in 40% and lost 29% overall.
- Nesebar won 2 of 4 home matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublePfc Nesebar / Pfc NesebarEstimated chance30%

Goals8 outcomes · top 85%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nesebar's high-scoring home form and Rilski's occasional defensive lapses make over 2.5 goals a reasonable expectation.
- Pfc Nesebar home matches average 4.25 total goals (11 scored, 6 conceded in 4).
- Pfc Nesebar scored 3+ goals in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Rilski Sportist away matches average 1.0 total goals, but Nesebar's attack is potent at home.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nesebar's home defense is not watertight and Rilski have found the net away, so both teams scoring is plausible.
- Pfc Nesebar conceded in 3 of 4 home matches (6 goals against).
- Rilski Sportist scored in 2 of 3 away matches despite low total.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Pfc Nesebar's last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nesebar's tendency to start fast at home could lead to multiple first-half goals.
- Pfc Nesebar average 1.5 first-half goals per match overall.
- Pfc Nesebar scored 2+ first-half goals in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Rilski Sportist average 0.2 first-half goals scored but concede 0.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and fatigue from Rilski's schedule may open the game late.
- Pfc Nesebar average 1.5 second-half goals per match (3.0 total - 1.5 first half).
- Rilski Sportist average 0.7 second-half goals per match (0.9 total - 0.2 first half).
- Combined second-half average is 2.2 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nesebar's defense is not dominant, but Rilski's away scoring is so poor that a home clean sheet is possible.
- Pfc Nesebar kept a clean sheet in 1 of 4 home matches.
- Rilski Sportist failed to score in 1 of 3 away matches.
- Rilski Sportist average only 0.33 away goals per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreRilski Sportist Samokov not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nesebar's consistent home scoring makes an away clean sheet very unlikely.
- Pfc Nesebar scored in all 4 home matches (11 goals).
- Rilski Sportist kept a clean sheet in only 1 of 3 away matches.
- Pfc Nesebar average 2.75 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorePfc Nesebar to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nesebar's home attack is prolific and Rilski's away defense is vulnerable, making over 1.5 home goals likely.
- Pfc Nesebar scored 2+ goals in 3 of 4 home matches.
- Pfc Nesebar average 2.75 goals per home match.
- Rilski Sportist conceded 2 goals in 2 of 3 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalPfc Nesebar over 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rilski's away scoring record is extremely poor, so under 1.5 away goals is probable.
- Rilski Sportist scored only 1 goal in 3 away matches.
- Rilski Sportist average 0.33 away goals per match.
- Pfc Nesebar conceded 1.5 goals per home match, but Rilski's attack is weak.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalRilski Sportist Samokov under 1.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Pfc Nesebar	7	3	1	3	13-10	10	LDWWW
12	Rilski Sportist Samokov	7	2	3	2	7-7	9	WDWDD

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Pfc Nesebar

L0-1MarekSep 2SEC

D1-1Yantra 2019Aug 29SEC

W7-0Pirin BlagoevgradAug 23SEC

W1-0Sportist SvogeAug 16SEC

W2-0DobrudzhaAug 10SEC

L1-3MontanaAug 4SEC

L1-5Etar Veliko TarnovoJul 25SEC

D1-1Spartak VarnaJul 8FRI

D1-1Ludogorets IIJul 1FRI

W8-1AsenovetsMay 27THI

W4-2ZagoretsMay 23THI

W6-1Spartak PlovdivMay 17THI

W5-0Maritsa PlovdivMay 13THI

W3-1Yambol 1915May 9THI

W4-0Rozova dolinaMay 2THI

Rilski Sportist Samokov

W2-1Sportist SvogeSep 2SEC

D0-0DobrudzhaAug 29SEC

W2-1MontanaAug 22SEC

D1-1Etar Veliko TarnovoAug 15SEC

D2-2Spartak PlevenAug 9SEC

L0-1FratriaAug 1SEC

L0-1Ludogorets IIJul 28SEC

L0-2CSKA Sofia IIJul 11FRI

L0-2Lokomotiv PlovdivJul 8FRI

W1-0VihrenJul 4FRI

L0-2Arda KardzhaliJul 1FRI

W2-1Pirin Gotse DelchevMay 27THI

L1-2Botev IhtimanMay 23THI

L0-1CSKA Sofia IIIMay 16THI

W2-0Levski Sofia IIMay 9THI

Squad & Injuries

Pfc Nesebar

23 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Rilski Sportist Samokov

24 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Pfc Nesebar

Over 2.5

Yes

Pfc Nesebar to score

Over 1.5

Pfc Nesebar

Pfc Nesebar or Draw

Under 1.5

Result4 outcomes · top 78%

Goals8 outcomes · top 85%

Markets to Avoid

Draw or Rilski Sportist Samokov

Under 1.5

League Table

Recent Form

Pfc Nesebar

Rilski Sportist Samokov

Squad & Injuries

Pfc Nesebar

Rilski Sportist Samokov