Nyiregyhaza1Ferencvaros1

HT 1–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges2–625%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 17–21On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 00:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Ferencváros are the clear pick at 1.70 (68% vs 59% implied), backed by a 3W-0D-1L away record and four wins in the last five head-to-heads, though their confirmed Thursday trip to Celtic adds rotation risk.

The best supporting value is in the first half — draw-or-Ferencváros double chance at 1.17 and Over 1.5 first-half goals at 2.20 — while Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes are priced too short to back. Avoid the Nyíregyháza home win at 3.80, especially with Benczenleitner confirmed suspended.

Context

Nyiregyhaza are 10th in NB I on seven points from seven games, one point above the relegation place. Their home record is two wins and one draw from three; their away record is four defeats from four.
The split is stark: five of their eight league goals and all seven points came at home, while away they have scored three and conceded ten. That makes the home venue the clearest factor in whether they can take anything from a stronger opponent. The limit is that the home sample is only three matches, and Ferencvaros have won three of four away league games, so the pattern faces its hardest test yet.
- Nyiregyhaza home league record: 3 played, 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 5 goals for, 3 against.
- Nyiregyhaza away league record: 4 played, 0 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses, 3 goals for, 10 against.
- Home results include a 2-1 win over Kisvarda on 15 August 2026 and a 1-1 draw with Paks on 29 August 2026.
B. Benczenleitner is a Nyíregyháza defender who received a red card in the 82nd minute of the Vasas match on 4 September. MLSZ's 9 September disciplinary decision imposed a one-match ban for the next senior league match, and Ferencváros' fixture notice confirms the 20 September NB I round-eight match as that fixture.
Nyíregyháza must make a replacement decision in its defensive unit for this game because Benczenleitner is unavailable through suspension. The confirmed absence removes a defensive selection option and changes the home side's lineup continuity, though the claim does not specify which player will cover that role or how the unit will be reorganised.
- The official Vasas–Nyíregyháza match record lists Benczenleitner's red card in the 82nd minute on 4 September.
- MLSZ's 9 September disciplinary decision gives Benczenleitner a one-match ban for the next senior league match.
- Ferencváros' official fixture notice identifies the Nyíregyháza match as the 20 September NB I round-eight fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Sep 2026, 00:40 · Europe/BucharestMLSZ disciplinary decisions, 9 Septemberwww.mlsz.hu · 9 Sep 2026Fradi.hu fixture noticewww.fradi.hu · 15 Sep 2026
Ferencvaros are fifth in NB I on 11 points from six games, one point behind leaders Gyori ETO. Their away record is three wins and one loss from four; at home they have drawn both matches.
Their away form is the stronger half of their season: wins at Gyori ETO (3-0 on 3 September 2026), Puskas Academy (2-1 on 30 August 2026) and Zalaegerszeg (1-0 on 17 August 2026). The one away defeat was 4-2 at Paks on 26 July 2026, so the record is not flawless. For this match it means Ferencvaros arrive as a team that has converted road games into points, which puts the burden on Nyiregyhaza's home record to hold.
- Ferencvaros away league record: 4 played, 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 8 goals for, 5 against.
- Away wins include 3-0 at Gyori ETO on 3 September 2026 and 2-1 at Puskas Academy on 30 August 2026.
- Their only away league defeat was 4-2 at Paks on 26 July 2026.
The teams have met five times in NB I since December 2024. Ferencvaros won four, Nyiregyhaza won one.
The recent pattern favours Ferencvaros: 3-1 at Nyiregyhaza on 8 March 2026, 3-1 at home on 22 November 2025 and 4-1 at Nyiregyhaza on 9 August 2025. The outlier is Nyiregyhaza's 7-0 home win on 20 April 2025, which shows the fixture can swing heavily the other way. The limit is that these are past results with different squads and form, so they describe the matchup's history rather than guarantee a repeat.
- 8 March 2026: Nyiregyhaza 1-3 Ferencvaros in NB I.
- 22 November 2025: Ferencvaros 1-3 Nyiregyhaza in NB I.
- 9 August 2025: Nyiregyhaza 1-4 Ferencvaros in NB I.
- 20 April 2025: Ferencvaros 7-0 Nyiregyhaza in NB I.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' superior goal output, strong away record, and dominant H2H psychology (4 wins in last 5) outweigh Nyiregyhaza's modest home resilience, though the visitors' short turnaround after Celtic adds rotation risk.
- Ferencvaros average 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded across last 15 matches, with 53% average possession.
- Ferencvaros away league record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 8 goals for, 5 against in 4 matches (2026 NB I season).
- H2H last 5: Ferencvaros won 4, including 3-1 and 4-1 away wins at Nyiregyhaza in 2025-26.
- Nyiregyhaza home league record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, but overall form L-D-L-W-L with 13 goals conceded in 7 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFerencvarosEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' consistent away results and H2H dominance make a draw-or-away outcome highly probable, with Nyiregyhaza's home form offering only a slim draw chance.
- Ferencvaros have lost only 1 of 6 league matches (3W 2D) and are unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 across all competitions.
- Nyiregyhaza have lost 4 of 7 league matches and sit 10th with a -5 goal difference.
- H2H last 5: Nyiregyhaza have never beaten Ferencvaros, losing 4 and drawing 0.
- Ferencvaros away form in NB I: 3 wins from 4 away matches, scoring 8 goals.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FerencvarosEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' habit of leading at half-time and Nyiregyhaza's tendency to trail early make a Ferencvaros first-half win the most likely single outcome, though the away side's rotation risk adds uncertainty.
- Ferencvaros lead at half-time in 53% of matches and trail in only 13%.
- Nyiregyhaza trail at half-time in 33% of matches and lead in only 27%.
- H2H last 5: Ferencvaros led at half-time in 3 of 5 meetings.
- Ferencvaros' last 5 matches: half-time results W, W, W, W, D — strong early dominance.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFerencvarosEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' superior fitness and depth typically tell in the second half, but the short turnaround after Celtic could reduce their late-game intensity, lowering confidence.
- Ferencvaros score 2.1 goals per game on average, with a significant portion coming in the second half.
- Nyiregyhaza concede 1.6 goals per game and have a -5 goal difference overall.
- H2H last 5: Ferencvaros scored in the second half in 4 of 5 meetings.
- Ferencvaros' away league record: 8 goals in 4 away matches, often pulling away late.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFerencvarosEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' strong half-time record and Nyiregyhaza's frequent half-time deficits make a draw-or-Ferencvaros first-half double chance highly probable.
- Ferencvaros lead at half-time in 53% of matches and trail in only 13%.
- Nyiregyhaza trail at half-time in 33% of matches and have a 27% half-time lead rate.
- H2H last 5: Ferencvaros were ahead or level at half-time in all 5 meetings.
- Ferencvaros' last 5 matches: half-time results W, W, W, W, D — no half-time deficits.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or FerencvarosEstimated chance78%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' goal averages and a H2H history of high-scoring fixtures support an over 2.5 lean, though Ferencvaros' fatigue and Nyiregyhaza's occasional low-scoring home games cap confidence.
- Ferencvaros average 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match; Nyiregyhaza average 1.7 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- H2H last 5 meetings produced 3, 4, 5, 7, and 1 goals — four of five went over 2.5.
- Nyiregyhaza's last 5 league matches: 2-3, 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1 — three went over 2.5.
- Ferencvaros' last 5 league matches: 2-2, 3-0, 2-1, 1-0, 0-0 — mixed but away games trend higher.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nyiregyhaza's home scoring record and Ferencvaros' tendency to concede away from home make both teams scoring a plausible outcome, though Ferencvaros' clean sheets in 2 of last 5 temper confidence.
- Nyiregyhaza have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches (1.7 goals per game average).
- Ferencvaros have conceded in 3 of their last 5 league matches, including 2-2 vs Ujpest and 2-4 vs Paks.
- H2H last 5: Nyiregyhaza scored in 3 of 5 meetings, including 1 goal in each of the last two home fixtures vs Ferencvaros.
- Ferencvaros' away league record shows 5 goals conceded in 4 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' strong first-half scoring rate and Nyiregyhaza's early concessions support an over 1.5 first-half goals lean, though the visitors' fatigue could slow their start.
- Ferencvaros average 1.1 first-half goals and lead at half-time in 53% of matches.
- Nyiregyhaza average 0.7 first-half goals and concede 0.7 first-half goals on average.
- H2H last 5: first-half goals recorded in 4 of 5 meetings, with Ferencvaros scoring early in several.
- Ferencvaros' last 5 matches: first-half scores of 2-1, 4-0, 2-1, 1-0, 0-0 — three had 2+ first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' defensive solidity gives them a reasonable clean-sheet chance, but Nyiregyhaza's home scoring record and Ferencvaros' fatigue make this a low-confidence call.
- Ferencvaros average 0.9 goals conceded per game and kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Nyiregyhaza have failed to score in 3 of their last 7 league matches.
- H2H last 5: Ferencvaros kept a clean sheet in 1 of 5 meetings (0-0 in Dec 2024).
- Nyiregyhaza home league record: 5 goals scored in 3 home matches, so they do score at home.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNyiregyhaza not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' defensive record gives them a chance to win without conceding, but Nyiregyhaza's home scoring form and Ferencvaros' fatigue make this a low-probability outcome.
- Ferencvaros kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 matches across all competitions.
- Nyiregyhaza failed to score in 3 of their last 7 league matches.
- H2H last 5: Ferencvaros won to nil once (0-1 in Dec 2024).
- Nyiregyhaza have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches, making a clean sheet less likely.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostYesEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferencvaros' strong scoring rate and Nyiregyhaza's leaky defense make over 1.5 away goals likely, though the short turnaround could limit their attacking output.
- Ferencvaros average 2.1 goals per game and have scored 8 goals in 4 away league matches.
- Nyiregyhaza concede 1.6 goals per game on average.
- H2H last 5: Ferencvaros scored 3, 3, 4, 7, and 1 goals in the meetings.
- Ferencvaros' last 5 matches: scored 3, 7, 2, 3, and 2 goals.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostFerencvaros over 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages suggest a total near 11, making over 9.5 a slight lean, but Ferencvaros' low corner count in some away games and Nyiregyhaza's inconsistent data reduce confidence.
- Nyiregyhaza average 6.5 corners per game; Ferencvaros average 4.9 corners per game.
- Combined average corners per match: approximately 11.4, above the 9.5 line.
- Nyiregyhaza's last 3 matches with corner data: 7, 6, and 7 corners.
- Ferencvaros' last 3 matches with corner data: 3, 5, and 9 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nyiregyhaza's high card average and the competitive nature of the fixture make over 4.5 cards likely, though Ferencvaros' relatively low card count and potential fatigue could reduce aggression.
- Nyiregyhaza average 4 yellow cards and 0.5 red cards per game; Ferencvaros average 1.6 yellow cards and 0.1 red cards.
- Combined average cards per match: approximately 6.2, well above 4.5.
- Nyiregyhaza's last 3 matches with card data: 5, 3, and 1 yellow cards, plus 1 red.
- Ferencvaros' last 3 matches with card data: 2, 3, and 1 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a healthy volume of shots on target, making over 8.5 a reasonable lean, though Ferencvaros' rotation and Nyiregyhaza's occasional low-output games add uncertainty.
- Nyiregyhaza average 5.5 shots on target per game; Ferencvaros average 6.0 shots on target per game.
- Combined average shots on target per match: approximately 11.5, above the 8.5 line.
- Nyiregyhaza's last 3 matches with shot data: 7, 4, and 5 shots on target.
- Ferencvaros' last 3 matches with shot data: 6, 5, and 7 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%