Nashville3Chicago Fire0

HT 1–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 01:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 13–10On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 18:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Nashville's unbeaten home record and Chicago's mediocre away form make the home win the standout bet at odds around 1.78, with a positive edge of about 6 points.

Avoid goal-related markets like Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score, as the odds imply higher probabilities than our model supports.

Context

Nashville SC lead the Eastern Conference with 54 points from 25 matches. Their home record is the best in the conference.
Nashville have not lost at home in MLS this season, winning 11 of 12 matches and drawing the other. They average 3 goals per home game while conceding just 1 per game. Chicago Fire have lost their last away match and have only 4 away wins in 12 attempts, so Nashville's home strength is a major factor.
- Nashville home record: 11 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses in 12 matches.
- Nashville have scored 36 goals and conceded 12 at home this season.
- Chicago Fire away record: 4 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses in 12 matches.
Nashville enter first in MLS and the Eastern Conference on 54 points, nine ahead of Inter Miami with nine matches left. Chicago are fifth in the East, one point behind Charlotte and five ahead of Orlando City.
The match directly affects Nashville's push to protect first place and Chicago's effort to improve or secure its playoff seeding. Both sides therefore have a clear incentive to pursue a result, though the specific tactical response remains to be seen.
- Nashville were first in MLS and the Eastern Conference on 54 points after the Sept. 12 draw at Inter Miami, nine points clear of Inter Miami with nine matches remaining.
- Chicago were fifth in the Eastern Conference after the Sept. 13 loss to New England, one point behind Charlotte and five ahead of Orlando City.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 18:47 · Europe/BucharestNashville SC recap at Inter Miamiwww.nashvillesc.com · 12 Sep 2026Chicago Fire recap vs New Englandwww.chicagofirefc.com · 13 Sep 2026
Chicago Fire sit 5th in the Eastern Conference with 39 points from 24 matches. Their recent form has dipped after a strong start.
Chicago Fire's last five league results are LDDDD, including a 1-2 home loss to New England Revolution on September 13 and a 4-4 draw at Toronto FC on September 5. They have conceded 10 goals in those five matches, showing defensive vulnerability. Nashville, by contrast, have won two of their last three home games.
- Chicago Fire form: LDDDD in last five MLS matches.
- Lost 1-2 at home to New England Revolution on 2026-09-13.
- Drew 4-4 away at Toronto FC on 2026-09-05.
Nashville attacker W. Madrigal has missed the club's three most recent MLS fixtures with a lower-body issue and has not started any of the five recent team fixtures with available lineups. S. Surridge has started in the same position in all five of those fixtures.
Madrigal's unresolved status leaves Nashville's attacking selection uncertain for Chicago. If he remains out, Surridge is the established replacement, but the club has not published a match-specific update, so the bench and rotation choices remain open.
- Nashville listed Warren Madrigal out with a lower-body injury before the Sept. 12 match at Inter Miami.
- Nashville's Sept. 4, Sept. 9 and Sept. 12 match reports each state that Madrigal did not dress because of the lower-body injury.
- W. Madrigal started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- S. Surridge started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when W. Madrigal did not start.
To watchSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 18:47 · Europe/BucharestNashville SC health reportwww.nashvillesc.com · 12 Sep 2026Nashville SC recap at Inter Miamiwww.nashvillesc.com · 12 Sep 2026Nashville SC recap at Torontowww.nashvillesc.com · 9 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show high-scoring home/away splits, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville's unbeaten home record and superior defensive numbers give them a strong structural home edge, while Chicago's away form is mediocre.
- Nashville home record: 11W-1D-0L, 36 goals for, 12 against in 12 MLS home matches this season.
- Chicago away record: 4W-5D-3L, 23 goals for, 21 against in 12 away matches.
- Nashville overall: 16W-6D-3L, 50 goals for, 21 against; Chicago: 11W-6D-7L, 45 for, 35 against.
- H2H last 5: Nashville won 3, Chicago won 2; Nashville won last meeting 1-0 at Chicago.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNashvilleEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville's unbeaten home record and Chicago's tendency to draw away make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Nashville home record: 11W-1D-0L in 12 home matches.
- Chicago away record: 4W-5D-3L, with 5 draws in 12 away matches.
- Nashville have not lost at home this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNashville or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nashville's home advantage and Chicago's first-half defensive vulnerabilities give Nashville a slight edge to lead at half-time.
- Nashville leading at half-time in 40% of recent matches; Chicago leading at half-time in 33%.
- Nashville first-half goals: 0.8 per game; Chicago first-half goals conceded: 0.8 per game.
- Nashville home matches often see them ahead at the break (e.g., 4 of last 5 home games had Nashville leading or drawing at half-time).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonNashvilleEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nashville's strong home form and ability to hold leads make a home win with a half-time lead plausible.
- Nashville home record: 11W-1D-0L, often winning after leading at half-time.
- Chicago away record: 4W-5D-3L, with only 4 away wins.
- Nashville have won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonNashville/NashvilleEstimated chance35%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H meetings often produce goals.
- Nashville home matches average 4.0 total goals (36 for, 12 against in 12 games).
- Chicago away matches average 3.67 total goals (23 for, 21 against in 12 games).
- Nashville recent form: 1.7 goals for, 1.0 against per game; Chicago: 1.9 for, 1.6 against.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's away scoring record and Nashville's occasional home concessions suggest both teams can find the net.
- Nashville home: 36 goals for, 12 against in 12 games (average 1.0 conceded per home game).
- Chicago away: 23 goals for, 21 against in 12 games (average 1.75 conceded per away game).
- Chicago have scored in 10 of 12 away matches; Nashville have conceded in 7 of 12 home matches.
- Nashville kept clean sheets in 5 of 12 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and Chicago's first-half defensive record is weak.
- Nashville average 0.8 first-half goals per game overall; Chicago average 0.8 first-half goals per game.
- Nashville first-half goals conceded: 0.3 per game; Chicago first-half goals conceded: 0.8 per game.
- In Nashville home matches, first-half goals are common (e.g., recent home games had first-half goals in 4 of last 5).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have attacking quality and may push for goals in the second half, especially if the game is close.
- Nashville average 1.7 goals per game overall, with many goals coming in the second half.
- Chicago average 1.9 goals per game, with second-half scoring common.
- Combined second-half goals in recent meetings have been frequent.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the total may exceed 9.5 if the game is open.
- Nashville average 5.1 corners per game; Chicago average 4.5 corners per game.
- Nashville home matches average 5.1 corners for, 3.3 against; Chicago away matches average 4.5 for, 4.3 against.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams: ~9.6.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent shot-on-target numbers, and the total may exceed 8.5 if the game is competitive.
- Nashville average 3.8 shots on target per game; Chicago average 5.4 shots on target per game.
- Nashville home matches average 3.8 shots on target for, 3.3 against; Chicago away matches average 5.4 for, 4.3 against.
- Combined average shots on target in matches involving these teams: ~9.2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 26% vs our estimate 20% leaves no value; Chicago's away form is mediocre and Nashville are dominant at home.

Prediction history

Nashville has struggled to clear Over 2.5 goals in recent matches

Nashville's Over 2.5 goals predictions have been fulfilled in only 2 of 5 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 62.4%, but the actual fulfillment rate is 40%, below the expected 3.1 fulfilled predictions. Notably, all three missed predictions occurred at home, where Nashville has fulfilled only 2 of 4 such predictions.

Recent evidence for Nashville5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer