Septemvri Sofia0Botev Plovdiv3

HT 0–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–282%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 13–12On targetOn target 2–6CornersCorners 2–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 20:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Botev Plovdiv's strong H2H record and set-piece threat are offset by poor away form and defensive concerns, making the 1.67 price on an away win poor value (45% model vs 60% implied).

The best value lies in Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score, each with a marginal +1 point edge at odds around 1.85.

Context

Septemvri Sofia are 10th in the 14-team First League, with the bottom six teams entering the relegation group.
They have 8 points, the same as 9th-placed Botev Vratsa, and their goal difference is -7 compared to -10. A win here would create a small cushion, but a loss could drop them into the relegation places.
- Septemvri Sofia are 10th with 8 points from 9 matches.
- The relegation line is 9th place, currently held by Botev Vratsa with 8 points.
- Septemvri Sofia's goal difference is -7, better than Botev Vratsa's -10.
Botev Plovdiv are 6th in the table but have struggled on the road, with only one away win in four attempts.
Their away record is 1 win, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. The three defeats came against Botev Vratsa, Ludogorets, and CSKA Sofia, showing they have been vulnerable away from home.
- Botev Plovdiv lost 0-1 at Botev Vratsa on 2026-08-24.
- Botev Plovdiv lost 0-2 at Ludogorets on 2026-08-15.
- Botev Plovdiv lost 2-3 at CSKA Sofia on 2026-07-27.
Botev Plovdiv scored both goals in their 2-0 derby win over Lokomotiv Plovdiv on 13 September from free-kick sequences.
Septemvri Sofia's restart defence becomes a direct concern because Botev produced a headed finish after a recycled free kick and a second goal from a rehearsed combination. The evidence is limited to one match, but it shows a specific set-piece routine that Septemvri must prepare for.
- Botev beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 in First League on 13 September.
- The opener followed a free kick, rebound and cross before a headed finish.
- The second goal came from an explicitly described rehearsed free-kick combination.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 20:51 · Europe/BucharestBulgarian Professional Football League match reportbpfl.bg · 13 Sep 2026
Septemvri Sofia have a poor home record this season, with only one win in four matches.
They lost 2-3 to Botev Vratsa on 2026-09-04 and 0-3 to CSKA Sofia on 2026-08-09. Those results show defensive problems at home, though they did beat CSKA 1948 1-0 earlier in the season.
- Septemvri Sofia lost 2-3 at home to Botev Vratsa on 2026-09-04.
- Septemvri Sofia lost 0-3 at home to CSKA Sofia on 2026-08-09.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Botev Plovdiv

1.67fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 60%

0.0ppshort

Botev's H2H dominance and Septemvri's weak home form support an away win, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Botev Plovdiv

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

The double chance price is very short and offers no value relative to our 65% estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Botev Plovdiv's strong first-half scoring and Septemvri's tendency to concede early make a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Botev Plovdiv's superior H2H record and slightly better away form give them the edge, though their poor away record and Septemvri's home resilience keep confidence medium.
- Botev Plovdiv away record this season: 1W-0D-3L, 5 goals scored, 8 conceded in 4 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia home record: 1W-1D-2L, 4 goals scored, 7 conceded in 4 matches.
- H2H last 5: Botev Plovdiv won 4, Septemvri won 1; Botev won the most recent meeting 2-0 at home in March 2026.
- Botev Plovdiv overall form: WWLLL (last 5), Septemvri: LLDWW (last 5).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBotev PlovdivEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Botev Plovdiv's strong H2H dominance and Septemvri's weak home form make a Botev win or draw likely, though Botev's away struggles temper the probability.
- Septemvri Sofia home record: 1W-1D-2L, only 1 win in 4 home matches.
- Botev Plovdiv away record: 1W-0D-3L, but they have won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- H2H last 5: Botev Plovdiv won 4, Septemvri won 1; no draws in last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Botev PlovdivEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Botev Plovdiv's superior first-half performance and Septemvri's slow starts suggest Botev may lead at the break, but the probability is modest.
- Botev Plovdiv led at half-time in 53% of recent matches, Septemvri trailed at half-time in 50%.
- Botev Plovdiv average first-half goals: 0.9 scored, 0.3 conceded; Septemvri: 0.1 scored, 0.6 conceded.
- H2H last 5: Botev Plovdiv led at half-time in 3 of 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBotev PlovdivEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Botev Plovdiv's ability to lead early and win matches makes this a possible outcome, but the low probability reflects the difficulty of predicting both halves.
- Botev Plovdiv led at half-time in 53% of recent matches and won 44% of recent matches.
- Septemvri Sofia trailed at half-time in 50% and lost 56% of recent matches.
- H2H last 5: Botev Plovdiv won 4 matches, but only led at half-time in 3 of those.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonBotev Plovdiv/Botev PlovdivEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, and recent H2H meetings often produce goals, supporting over 2.5.
- Septemvri Sofia average goals per match: 1.3 scored, 1.4 conceded (last 15).
- Botev Plovdiv average goals per match: 1.8 scored, 1.1 conceded (last 15).
- H2H last 5: total goals 2, 4, 3, 1, 3; 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Botev Plovdiv away matches this season: 5 goals scored, 8 conceded in 4 games (avg 3.25 total goals).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score and vulnerability defensively, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Septemvri Sofia scored in 8 of last 15 matches, conceded in 11 of last 15.
- Botev Plovdiv scored in 11 of last 15 matches, conceded in 8 of last 15.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches; Septemvri failed to score in 3 of those.
- Septemvri home matches this season: scored in 3 of 4, conceded in 3 of 4.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Botev Plovdiv's strong first-half scoring and Septemvri's tendency to concede early make a first-half goal likely.
- Botev Plovdiv average first-half goals: 0.9 scored, 0.3 conceded (last 15).
- Septemvri Sofia average first-half goals: 0.1 scored, 0.6 conceded (last 15).
- Botev Plovdiv led at half-time in 53% of recent matches, Septemvri trailed at half-time in 50%.
- H2H last 5: first-half goals occurred in 4 of 5 matches (at least one goal in first half).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is common in this fixture, but the derived averages are not strong enough for high confidence.
- Septemvri Sofia average second-half goals: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded (derived from totals and first-half).
- Botev Plovdiv average second-half goals: 0.9 scored, 0.8 conceded (derived).
- H2H last 5: second-half goals occurred in all 5 matches, with 2+ second-half goals in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Limited corner data suggests a combined total around 7-10, but the small sample makes this a low-confidence prediction.
- Septemvri Sofia average corners per match: 5.0 (last 15), opponent corners: 5.0.
- Botev Plovdiv average corners per match: 2.0 (last 15), opponent corners: 7.0.
- Only one recent match for each team has corner data, so sample size is very small.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The limited shots data suggests a combined total around 7-8, but the small sample makes this a low-confidence prediction.
- Septemvri Sofia average shots on target: 2.0 (last 15), opponent shots on target: 8.0.
- Botev Plovdiv average shots on target: 5.0 (last 15), opponent shots on target: 3.0.
- Only one recent match for each team has shots data, so sample size is very small.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average a moderate number of yellow cards, suggesting a total over 4.5 is plausible, but the data is limited.
- Septemvri Sofia average yellow cards: 3.4 (last 15), opponent yellow cards: 1.6.
- Botev Plovdiv average yellow cards: 2.5 (last 15), opponent yellow cards: 2.8.
- Combined average yellow cards per match: approximately 5.9.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance50%