AllsvenskanFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Orgryte1Sirius2

HT 0–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges7–0100%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 12–5On targetOn target 1–3CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 21:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Sirius are clear favourites on form and table position, but the odds on the away win and double chance offer no value.

The best betting angle is over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.95, where our model sees a 60% probability versus the market's 51%.

Context

Sirius are first in Allsvenskan with 48 points from 21 matches, while Orgryte are 15th with 15 points. The 33-point gap is the largest between any two teams in this fixture.
Sirius have won 8 of 10 away matches this season, scoring 25 goals and conceding 12. Orgryte have only one home win in 10 attempts, with six draws and three losses. This contrast suggests Sirius can control the game, but Orgryte's home draws show they can be stubborn.
- Sirius are 1st with 48 points; Orgryte are 15th with 15 points.
- Sirius away record: 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 10 matches.
- Orgryte home record: 1 win, 6 draws, 3 losses in 10 matches.
Sirius are first with 48 points after 21 matches, while Örgryte are 15th with 15 points and sit in an automatic relegation place with nine rounds left.
The table positions create different incentives: Sirius can protect their lead, while Örgryte need to recover survival ground. If the score is level or changes late, Örgryte may accept more risk and Sirius may manage the game more conservatively. This context can shape each side's risk tolerance and urgency, but it does not guarantee a particular result.
- Sirius are first with 48 points after 21 matches.
- Örgryte are 15th with 15 points after 21 matches.
- The table marks positions 15 and 16 as automatic relegation places and states that nine rounds remain.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:25 · Europe/BucharestSverigesfotboll.se: IK Sirius standingssverigesfotboll.se · 14 Sep 2026Degerfors IF: Degerfors nollades av serieledarnadegerforsif.se · 15 Sep 2026
The teams met on 11 May 2026, with Sirius winning 2-0 at home.
Sirius scored twice and kept a clean sheet in that match. However, that game was at Sirius' ground, and Orgryte have drawn six of ten home matches this season, so a repeat is not guaranteed.
- 2026-05-11: Sirius 2-0 Orgryte (Allsvenskan).
Örgryte kept Malmö scoreless in the first half on 13 September, but their late push for an equaliser opened space behind them.
If Örgryte need to chase Sirius, a more aggressive late shape can create transition space for Sirius. That recent game-state trade-off is relevant, but it is a tactical context signal rather than a forecast.
- Örgryte said their defence kept Malmö scoreless in the first half.
- The club said that after Örgryte’s late attacking push created pressure on Malmö, the spaces behind were exploited for two late goals.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:25 · Europe/BucharestÖIS Fotboll match report: Förlust mot Malmö FFoisfotboll.se · 13 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Sirius

1.48fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Sirius's superior league position, away form, and recent H2H dominance over a relegation-threatened Orgryte side make them clear favourites.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Sirius

1.15fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Orgryte's poor home record and winless recent form make a home win unlikely, while Sirius's strong away record supports avoiding defeat.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Sirius at half-time / Sirius at full-time

2.15fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 46.5%

0.0ppshort

Sirius's pattern of leading at half-time and winning, combined with Orgryte's poor home form, supports a Sirius half-time/full-time double.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent averages and home/away splits point to a high-scoring match, with Sirius's attacking output and Orgryte's defensive frailty.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Sirius's strong first-half scoring record and Orgryte's tendency to trail early make a first-half goal highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius's superior league position, away form, and recent H2H dominance over a relegation-threatened Orgryte side make them clear favourites.
- Sirius are 1st with 48 points after 21 matches; Orgryte are 15th with 15 points.
- Sirius away record: 8W-1D-1L, 25 goals scored, 12 conceded in 10 away matches.
- Orgryte home record: 1W-6D-3L, 16 goals scored, 18 conceded in 10 home matches.
- Last 5 H2H: Sirius won both Allsvenskan meetings, including 2-0 at home in May 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSiriusEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Orgryte's poor home record and winless recent form make a home win unlikely, while Sirius's strong away record supports avoiding defeat.
- Orgryte have won only 1 of 10 home matches this season.
- Sirius have lost only 1 of 10 away matches this season.
- Orgryte's last 5 form: LDLDL (0 wins).
- Sirius's last 5 form: WWLLL (2 wins, but losses were to top sides Malmo and Hacken).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or SiriusEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sirius's superior first-half scoring and Orgryte's tendency to trail at the break make a Sirius half-time lead likely.
- Sirius led at half-time in 53% of matches; Orgryte trailed at half-time in 53%.
- Sirius average 1.2 first-half goals scored vs Orgryte's 0.5.
- Orgryte average 0.9 first-half goals conceded vs Sirius's 0.5.
- In the last H2H, Sirius led 1-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSiriusEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sirius's pattern of leading at half-time and winning, combined with Orgryte's poor home form, supports a Sirius half-time/full-time double.
- Sirius led at half-time in 53% of matches and won 71% overall.
- Orgryte trailed at half-time in 53% and lost 57% overall.
- Sirius away record: 8 wins in 10, often controlling games early.
- Orgryte home record: only 1 win in 10, frequently behind at the break.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonSirius/SiriusEstimated chance38%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent averages and home/away splits point to a high-scoring match, with Sirius's attacking output and Orgryte's defensive frailty.
- Orgryte average 1.3 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per match over last 15.
- Sirius average 2.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match over last 15.
- Orgryte home matches average 3.4 total goals (16 scored + 18 conceded in 10 games).
- Sirius away matches average 3.7 total goals (25 scored + 12 conceded in 10 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Orgryte have scored in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
- Sirius have scored in 9 of their last 10 away matches.
- Orgryte have conceded in 9 of their last 10 home matches.
- Sirius have conceded in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius's strong first-half scoring record and Orgryte's tendency to trail early make a first-half goal highly probable.
- Orgryte average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match.
- Sirius average 1.2 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match.
- Sirius led at half-time in 53% of their matches; Orgryte trailed at half-time in 53%.
- In the last H2H (May 2026), Sirius led 1-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in second-half goals, and Orgryte's defensive lapses late in games increase the likelihood of multiple second-half goals.
- Orgryte average 0.8 second-half goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match (derived from totals).
- Sirius average 0.9 second-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match.
- Orgryte's late push against Malmo led to two late goals conceded, showing second-half vulnerability.
- Sirius scored in the second half in 8 of their last 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages suggest a total around 10, making over 9.5 a marginal but plausible outcome.
- Orgryte average 4.1 corners per match; Sirius average 6.1 corners per match.
- Orgryte concede an average of 6.9 opponent corners per match.
- Sirius concede an average of 5.3 opponent corners per match.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams: ~10.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages exceed 8.5, making over 8.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Orgryte average 3.7 shots on target per match; Sirius average 6.2.
- Orgryte concede an average of 6.1 opponent shots on target per match.
- Sirius concede an average of 4.3 opponent shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target in matches involving these teams: ~9.9.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card averages are close to the line, making over 3.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Orgryte average 1.2 yellow cards per match; Sirius average 1.4.
- Orgryte opponents average 1.9 yellow cards per match; Sirius opponents average 1.7.
- Combined average cards in matches involving these teams: ~3.1.
- Recent H2H matches have seen moderate card counts.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%