AllsvenskanFull time

Predictions graded

Orgryte3AIK Stockholm4

HT 2–1Sat 8 Aug 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 7–18On targetOn target 2–8CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Aug 2026, 08:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Örgryte’s 3-0 win six days ago gives them a strong chance to avoid defeat in the immediate rematch, with Double Chance (Orgryte or Draw) at 1.73 offering a small edge.

Avoid the goals markets—Over 2.5, BTTS Yes, and Over 0.5 first-half goals are all priced far above our probability estimates, offering poor value despite the recent high-scoring result.

Context

Orgryte won 3-0 away at AIK on 2 August, with Christoffersson scoring all three goals.
- The reverse fixture is the most recent competitive meeting between the sides.
- AIK's coach admitted his team 'failed to reach its level' in that defeat.
Riveiro's AIK lost 3-0 at home to Orgryte on 2 August.
- The coach stated his team 'failed to reach its level' in that match.
- Only six days separate the two fixtures, limiting preparation time.
AIK announced on 1 July that CEO Fredrik Söderberg will depart once a successor is found.
- A February cost-cutting plan targeted reductions of at least 15% due to an operating deficit.
- The off-field changes coincide with a poor on-field result against Orgryte.
Orgryte beat Hacken 4-3 at home on 11 July and drew 0-0 with Djurgardens on 20 July.
- AIK have lost three of their last four home matches, conceding 12 goals in 7 home games this season.
- Orgryte's recent home scoring output (4 goals vs Hacken) shows attacking threat.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches trend toward higher totals, and the reverse fixture's 3-0 result suggests goals are likely in this rematch.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have been consistently scoring and conceding in recent matches, making it likely that each will find the net despite the clean sheet in the reverse fixture.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a strong trend of first-half goals in recent matches, and the reverse fixture's early scoring pattern supports at least one goal before halftime.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The immediate rematch context and AIK's poor home form give Orgryte a strong chance to avoid defeat, supported by the psychological edge from the recent 3-0 win.
- Orgryte won the reverse fixture 3-0 away just six days ago, with Noah Christoffersson scoring a hat-trick.
- AIK have lost three of their last four home matches, conceding 12 goals in 7 home games this season.
- Orgryte are unbeaten in their last two home matches (1W, 1D), scoring 4 goals in the last home game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOrgryte or DrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The immediate rematch context and AIK's poor home form give Orgryte a strong chance to avoid defeat, supported by the psychological edge from the recent 3-0 win.
- Orgryte won the reverse fixture 3-0 away just six days ago, with Noah Christoffersson scoring a hat-trick.
- AIK have lost three of their last four home matches, conceding 12 goals in 7 home games this season.
- Orgryte are unbeaten in their last two home matches (1W, 1D), scoring 4 goals in the last home game.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostOrgryte or DrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AIK's tendency to draw at halftime away from home and Orgryte's mixed first-half performances suggest a balanced start, though the reverse fixture's result adds uncertainty.
- Orgryte have been drawing at halftime in 2 of their last 5 matches, while AIK have drawn at halftime in 3 of their last 5.
- The reverse fixture saw Orgryte leading 2-0 at halftime, but AIK's away matches this season have seen them drawing at halftime in 4 of 8 games.
- Orgryte's home matches have seen them trailing at halftime in 4 of 7, but their recent home form shows improvement.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AIK's tendency to draw away from home and the potential for a cautious rematch after the 3-0 result make a draw/draw outcome possible, though not highly likely.
- Orgryte have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches, with 1 of those being a draw at halftime and fulltime.
- AIK have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches, with 1 of those being a draw at halftime and fulltime.
- AIK's away matches this season have seen 4 draws, with 2 of those being draw/draw.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches show a trend towards higher-scoring games, and the reverse fixture's 3-0 result suggests goals are likely in this rematch.
- Orgryte's last 5 matches have seen an average of 3.4 total goals, with 4 of those 5 going over 2.5.
- AIK's last 5 matches have averaged 2.6 total goals, with 3 of 5 going over 2.5.
- The reverse fixture ended 3-0, and Orgryte's home matches this season average 3.3 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been consistently scoring and conceding in recent matches, making it likely that each will find the net despite the clean sheet in the reverse fixture.
- Orgryte have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, while AIK have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- Orgryte have conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches, and AIK have conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- The reverse fixture saw a clean sheet for Orgryte, but AIK's away record shows they have scored in 6 of 8 away games this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong trend of first-half goals in recent matches, and the reverse fixture's early scoring pattern supports at least one goal before halftime.
- Orgryte have seen first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, with an average of 1.4 first-half goals in those games.
- AIK have seen first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, with an average of 1.2 first-half goals.
- The reverse fixture had 2 first-half goals, and Orgryte's home matches this season average 1.1 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a pattern of higher-scoring second halves in recent matches, and Orgryte's home games particularly see goals after the break.
- Orgryte's last 5 matches have seen an average of 2.0 second-half goals, with 4 of 5 going over 1.5.
- AIK's last 5 matches have seen an average of 1.8 second-half goals, with 3 of 5 going over 1.5.
- The reverse fixture had 1 second-half goal, but Orgryte's home matches this season average 2.1 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent corner trends for both teams hover around the 9.5 line, and Orgryte's home matches tend to produce more corners, though the reverse fixture was low.
- Orgryte's last 5 matches have averaged 9.2 total corners, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- AIK's last 5 matches have averaged 10.0 total corners, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- The reverse fixture had only 7 corners, but Orgryte's home matches this season average 10.1 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in matches with a moderate number of cards recently, and the reverse fixture's card count supports a similar outcome.
- Orgryte's last 5 matches have averaged 3.6 total cards, with 3 of 5 going over 3.5.
- AIK's last 5 matches have averaged 4.0 total cards, with 3 of 5 going over 3.5.
- The reverse fixture had 4 cards, and Orgryte's home matches this season average 3.7 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

AIK's poor recent form and the psychological blow of the 3-0 loss make them unreliable favourites at short odds.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 1W

W0-3AIK StockholmvOrgryte ISAug 2, 2026ALL

L2-0AIK StockholmvOrgryte ISFeb 19, 2022SVE

W0-1Orgryte ISvAIK StockholmMar 1, 2020SVE

Orgryte: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Allsvenskan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Orgryte Relegation Playoffs	15	3	4	8	17-33	13	WLDWL
7	AIK Stockholm	15	6	4	5	18-21	22	LDWWW

9pt gap between teamsOrgryte in relegation zone

Recent Form

Orgryte

W3-0AIK StockholmAug 2ALL

L0-2Vasteras SK FKJul 24ALL

D0-0Djurgardens IFJul 20ALL

W4-3BK HackenJul 11ALL

L0-3Kalmar FFJul 5ALL

L1-4TromsoJun 25FRI

D2-2IF ElfsborgMay 29ALL

L0-2HalmstadMay 23ALL

L2-3IFK GoteborgMay 19ALL

L0-2SiriusMay 11ALL

L0-4GaisMay 3ALL

D1-1Degerfors IFApr 27ALL

L1-2IF BrommapojkarnaApr 22ALL

L1-8Hammarby FFApr 18ALL

W2-0Mjallby AIFApr 11ALL

AIK Stockholm

L0-3Orgryte ISAug 2ALL

D0-0BK HackenJul 27ALL

W2-0GaisJul 18ALL

W2-1Mjallby AIFJul 11ALL

W2-1IFK GoteborgJul 5ALL

W3-2Vasteras SK FKJun 28FRI

L0-2Kalmar FFJun 22FRI

L0-3SiriusMay 30ALL

W2-1Hammarby FFMay 24ALL

D1-1Vasteras SK FKMay 17ALL

L2-4Djurgardens IFMay 10ALL

D1-1IF ElfsborgMay 3ALL

L0-1Malmo FFApr 27ALL

L1-2Degerfors IFApr 23ALL

W1-0Kalmar FFApr 19ALL

Squad & Injuries

Orgryte

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

AIK Stockholm

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3