CF Montreal0Columbus Crew2

HT 0–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–1115%

Edges0–40%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 9–13On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 5–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 18:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Both teams face short turnarounds after midweek cup semi-finals, adding rotation and fatigue risk.

The main betting markets (Over 2.5, BTTS, 1st Half Over 0.5, Double Chance) all show negative value relative to our estimates, so the top takeaway is to avoid these popular bets and wait for lineup news.

Context

CF Montreal sit 15th in the Eastern Conference with 21 points from 25 matches, only two points above the bottom of the table.
Montreal have lost four consecutive league games, most recently a 1-0 defeat at Colorado Rapids on September 13. Their last MLS win came on August 19 against Columbus Crew. This poor run has left them with a -20 goal difference, the worst in the Eastern Conference. Facing a Columbus side also struggling, Montreal need points to avoid falling further behind.
- CF Montreal lost 1-0 at Colorado Rapids on September 13, 2026.
- They lost 2-1 at home to Charlotte on September 9, 2026.
- They lost 2-0 at Philadelphia Union on September 5, 2026.
- Their last MLS win was 2-1 at Columbus Crew on August 19, 2026.
Columbus Crew are 13th in the Eastern Conference with 23 points from 25 matches, only two points ahead of CF Montreal.
Columbus have lost four of their last five league games, including a 1-0 home defeat to New York Red Bulls on September 12 and a 2-1 loss at DC United on September 9. Their only win in that stretch was a 3-0 home victory over Colorado Rapids on September 5. Away from home, Columbus have won just once in 12 matches this season, which could be a factor in Montreal.
- Columbus Crew lost 1-0 at home to New York Red Bulls on September 12, 2026.
- They lost 2-1 at DC United on September 9, 2026.
- They won 3-0 at home to Colorado Rapids on September 5, 2026.
- Their away record is 1 win, 3 draws, and 8 losses in 12 matches.
The teams have met five times in MLS since 2024, with Columbus winning twice, Montreal once, and two draws.
In the most recent head-to-head match on August 19, 2026, Montreal won 2-1 at Columbus despite having only 38% possession. Montreal scored twice from 14 shots, while Columbus managed just six shots. That result ended a three-match winless run for Montreal against Columbus. However, Columbus had won the previous meeting 2-1 at home in April 2025, so the recent history is mixed.
- CF Montreal won 2-1 at Columbus Crew on August 19, 2026.
- Columbus Crew won 2-1 at home against CF Montreal on April 5, 2025.
- The teams drew 1-1 in Montreal on May 14, 2025.
CF Montréal host Vancouver Whitecaps in the second leg of the Canadian Championship semi-final on Wednesday.
The short turnaround before Saturday's MLS match may force rotation or limit recovery for players involved in that decisive semi-final. Any injuries or suspensions from that match could also affect selection.
- Canada Soccer confirmed that CF Montréal host Vancouver Whitecaps in the second leg of the Canadian Championship semi-final on September 16.
- The match is described as a decisive semi-final.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 18:22 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have leaky defenses and moderate scoring, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, so no value.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly score and concede, but the odds are too short relative to our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to see first-half goals, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Lean

CF Montreal or Draw

1.47fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 68%

0.0ppshort

CF Montreal's home resilience and Columbus Crew's poor away form support a home double chance.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in poor form and have weak home/away splits, making a draw a plausible outcome.
- CF Montreal home record: 3W-5D-4L; Columbus Crew away record: 1W-3D-8L.
- CF Montreal form last 5: LLLLD; Columbus Crew form last 5: LLWLL.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 away wins, 1 home win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CF Montreal's home resilience and Columbus Crew's poor away form support a home double chance.
- CF Montreal home record: 3W-5D-4L (67% unbeaten at home).
- Columbus Crew away record: 1W-3D-8L (only 8% win rate away).
- CF Montreal have lost only 4 of 12 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCF Montreal or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half draws are common for both teams, especially CF Montreal's low leading percentage.
- CF Montreal led at half-time in 7% of matches and trailed in 27%.
- Columbus Crew led at half-time in 33% and trailed in 47%.
- Both teams have a high proportion of first-half draws in recent matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A second-half draw is plausible given the teams' overall draw tendencies and similar second-half stats.
- Second-half results are not directly provided, but overall match draws are frequent for both teams.
- CF Montreal have drawn 6 of 25 matches; Columbus Crew have drawn 5 of 25.
- Both teams have similar second-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is a low-probability but plausible outcome given both teams' tendencies.
- CF Montreal have drawn at half-time in 60% of matches and full-time in 24%.
- Columbus Crew have drawn at half-time in 20% and full-time in 20%.
- Combined probability of both half-time and full-time draws is low but possible.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and moderate scoring, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- CF Montreal average 1.2 goals for and 1.8 goals against per match over last 15; Columbus Crew average 1.5 goals for and 1.6 goals against.
- Combined average total goals in these teams' recent matches is 3.1.
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 2, 2, 3, 4, 0 goals (avg 2.2), but both teams' current defensive records are poor.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede, so both teams scoring is probable.
- CF Montreal scored in 10 of last 15 matches; Columbus Crew scored in 11 of last 15.
- CF Montreal conceded in 13 of last 15; Columbus Crew conceded in 12 of last 15.
- Both teams have scored in 8 of CF Montreal's last 15 and 9 of Columbus Crew's last 15.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, especially Columbus Crew's high first-half scoring and conceding rates.
- CF Montreal average 0.4 first-half goals for and 0.7 first-half goals against.
- Columbus Crew average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.9 first-half goals against.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.45 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is slightly above the 1.5 line, but confidence is low due to variability.
- CF Montreal average 0.8 second-half goals for and 1.1 second-half goals against.
- Columbus Crew average 0.6 second-half goals for and 0.7 second-half goals against.
- Combined second-half goal average is 1.6 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner average is marginally above the line, but confidence is low due to inconsistency.
- CF Montreal average 4.9 corners per match; Columbus Crew average 4.8 corners per match.
- Combined average corners is 9.7, just above the 9.5 line.
- Recent matches show variability in corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shot average is slightly above the line, but confidence is low due to variability.
- CF Montreal average 13.2 shots per match; Columbus Crew average 11.6 shots per match.
- Combined average shots is 24.8, just above the 24.5 line.
- Both teams have had high shot totals in several recent matches.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 24.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is above the line, but confidence is low due to inconsistency.
- CF Montreal average 5.0 shots on target per match; Columbus Crew average 4.2 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target is 9.2, above the 8.5 line.
- Recent matches show fluctuations in shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card average is above the line, but confidence is low due to variability.
- CF Montreal average 2.0 yellow cards per match; Columbus Crew average 1.8 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards is 3.8, above the 3.5 line.
- Both teams have had matches with high card counts.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%