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Predictions graded

DC United4CF Montreal4

HT 2–1Sat 23 May 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 18–22On targetOn target 10–8CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 May 2026, 08:09 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight, low-scoring match is expected, with a strong historical trend toward under 2.5 goals and a first-half draw.

The best value lies in backing the halftime draw and under 2.5 goals, while the DC United win is overpriced given their inconsistent home form.

Context

CF Montreal's official technical-team page lists Philippe Eullaffroy as the current head of coaching staff.
- The club's release confirmed Marco Donadel was relieved of duties along with assistants Jacopo Falanga and Lorenzo Pinzauti.
- No permanent replacement has been named as of May 20, 2026.
In the May 16 official preview, Weiler highlighted Baribo and Munteanu after their first start together against Chicago.
- The pair combined for the opening goal in that match.
- The club stated Weiler would lean on them again, indicating a current two-DP attacking emphasis.
Montreal's away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 6 losses in 7 matches.
- They have a -12 goal difference on the road, with only 8 goals scored.
- They have lost their last five away matches in a row.
Last five H2H results: 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-2, 4-2 (only the 4-2 exceeded 2.5 goals).
- Both teams scored in only one of those five matches.
- DC United kept clean sheets in their last two home H2Hs against Montreal.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
DC United's home advantage, superior recent form, and Montreal's terrible away record (1 win in 7, -12 goal difference) combined with H2H dominance at home make a home win the most likely single outcome.
- DC United home record: 2W-1D-3L (6 matches), but last 5 overall form: 2W-2D-1L, including a 2-0 away win vs NYCFC and 3-2 home win vs Orlando.
- CF Montreal away record: 1W-0D-6L (7 matches), with 8 goals scored and 20 conceded; last 5 away matches: 0W-0D-5L.
- H2H last 5 meetings: DC United 2W-2D-1L; at home vs Montreal: 1W-1D-0L (1-0 win in 2024, 0-0 draw in 2025).
- Montreal under interim coach Philippe Eullaffroy; DC United have explicit playoff motivation (rank 8, 17 pts) and a settled Baribo-Munteanu attacking pair.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDC UnitedEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montreal's dreadful away form (1 point from 7 games) and DC United's solid home H2H record make a DC United win or draw highly probable, supported by the motivational edge of playoff contention.
- DC United home: 2W-1D-3L; Montreal away: 1W-0D-6L.
- H2H last 5: DC United unbeaten in 4 of 5 (2W-2D-1L); at home, DC United unbeaten in last 2 H2Hs (1W-1D).
- Montreal have lost 6 of 7 away matches this season, failing to score in 3 of those 7.
- DC United's last 5 home matches: 2W-1D-2L, with losses only to strong sides (Chicago, Dallas).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDC United or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern of 4 draws in 5 first halves, combined with both teams' low first-half scoring rates, suggests a high likelihood of a draw at halftime.
- DC United first-half home record: 2W-1D-3L; Montreal first-half away record: 1W-1D-5L.
- H2H last 5 first-half results: 4 draws, 1 DC United lead (1-0 in 2024).
- DC United's last 5 first-half results: 3W-1D-1L; Montreal's last 5 away first-half results: 1W-1D-3L.
- DC United average first-half goals: 0.5; Montreal average first-half goals away: 0.57.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Montreal's abysmal second-half away record (6 losses in 7) and DC United's positive H2H second-half trend give a low-confidence edge to the home side winning the second half.
- DC United second-half home record: 1W-2D-3L; Montreal second-half away record: 1W-0D-6L.
- H2H second-half results: DC United won 2, drew 2, lost 1 in last 5 meetings.
- DC United's last 5 second-half results: 2W-2D-1L; Montreal's last 5 away second-half results: 1W-0D-4L.
- Montreal have lost the second half in 6 of 7 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDC UnitedEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The specific H2H pattern of two Draw/DC United HT/FT results in recent meetings, plus Montreal's inability to win away, supports a low-probability but plausible Draw/DC United double.
- DC United home HT/FT: 1 draw/win in 6 home games; Montreal away HT/FT: 0 draw/win in 7 away games.
- H2H: In the last 5 meetings, 2 matches were draw at HT and DC United won at FT (1-0 in 2024, 1-0 in 2023 Leagues Cup).
- DC United's last 5 matches: 1 draw/win HT/FT; Montreal's last 5 away: 0 draw/win HT/FT.
- Montreal have not won a single away match this season, and DC United have come from behind or drawn at HT to win in 2 of their last 5 overall.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DC UnitedEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend strongly favors low-scoring affairs (4 of last 5 under 2.5), and both teams' recent form shows a tendency for tight matches, especially with Montreal struggling to score away (only 8 goals in 7 away games).
- DC United home matches average 3.17 total goals (7 scored, 12 conceded in 6 games), but 4 of 6 home games had under 2.5 goals.
- CF Montreal away matches average 4.0 total goals (8 scored, 20 conceded in 7 games), but 3 of 7 away games had under 2.5 goals.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals (0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-2, 4-2 outlier).
- DC United's last 5 matches: 3 of 5 under 2.5 goals; Montreal's last 5 away: 3 of 5 under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H data shows a strong pattern of at least one team failing to score (4 of last 5), and Montreal's poor away scoring record (3 blanks in 7) makes a 'No' on both teams to score likely.
- DC United home clean sheets: 1 in 6 home games; Montreal away failed to score in 3 of 7 away games.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 1 of 5 meetings (the 4-2 outlier); 3 matches ended with a clean sheet for one side.
- DC United's last 5 home matches: both teams scored in 3 of 5; Montreal's last 5 away: both teams scored in 2 of 5.
- Montreal have scored only 8 goals in 7 away games (1.14 per game), while DC United concede 2.0 per home game but kept a clean sheet in their last home H2H vs Montreal.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While DC United's overall home defensive record is poor, Montreal's away scoring struggles and the clean sheet trend in recent home H2Hs provide a low-confidence case for a home clean sheet.
- DC United have 1 clean sheet in 6 home games this season.
- Montreal have failed to score in 3 of 7 away games this season.
- H2H: DC United kept a clean sheet in 2 of the last 3 home meetings vs Montreal (1-0 in 2024, 0-0 in 2025).
- Montreal's away goals per game: 1.14; they were shut out in their last away match (0-2 vs Chicago).
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCF Montreal not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H first-half record is extremely low-scoring (1 goal in 5 matches), and both teams' season-long first-half scoring averages are well below 1.0, making under 1.5 first-half goals a strong probability.
- DC United first-half goals: 0.5 per game overall; at home: 0.67 per game (4 goals in 6 home games).
- CF Montreal first-half goals away: 0.57 per game (4 goals in 7 away games); first-half goals conceded away: 1.14 per game.
- H2H last 5 first-half scores: 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0 (only 1 first-half goal total across 5 matches).
- DC United's last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had under 1.5 first-half goals; Montreal's last 5 away: 3 of 5 had under 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While the H2H second-half average is exactly 1.0, both teams' recent second-half trends show a slight lean toward over 1.5, especially with Montreal's leaky away defense conceding 1.71 second-half goals per game.
- DC United second-half goals at home: 0.5 per game (3 goals in 6 home games); second-half goals conceded at home: 1.33 per game (8 in 6).
- CF Montreal second-half goals away: 0.57 per game (4 in 7); second-half goals conceded away: 1.71 per game (12 in 7).
- H2H last 5 second-half goals: 0, 0, 3, 1, 1 (total 5 goals, average 1.0 per game).
- DC United's last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals; Montreal's last 5 away: 3 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' season averages and recent match data hover around the 10-11 total corners mark, with the H2H average at exactly 10.0, making over 9.5 a marginal lean.
- DC United average corners per home game: 4.6; opponent corners per home game: 6.5 (total average 11.1).
- CF Montreal average corners per away game: 5.2; opponent corners per away game: 5.4 (total average 10.6).
- H2H last 5 meetings: total corners 13, 11, 9, 9, 8 (average 10.0).
- DC United's last 5 home matches: average total corners 11.2; Montreal's last 5 away: average total corners 10.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently see matches with 4+ total cards, and recent home/away trends average above 5.0, suggesting a slight edge for over 4.5 cards.
- DC United average yellow cards per home game: 2.2; opponent yellow cards per home game: 2.5 (total 4.7).
- CF Montreal average yellow cards per away game: 2.3; opponent yellow cards per away game: 2.1 (total 4.4).
- H2H last 5 meetings: total cards data unavailable, but both teams average over 2 yellows per game this season.
- DC United's last 5 home matches: total cards 8, 5, 8, 3, 6 (average 6.0); Montreal's last 5 away: total cards 7, 7, 5, 4, 4 (average 5.4).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D1-1CF MontrealvDC UnitedAug 16, 2025MAJ

D0-0DC UnitedvCF MontrealMar 15, 2025MAJ

L4-2CF MontrealvDC UnitedMay 29, 2024MAJ

W1-0DC UnitedvCF MontrealMar 30, 2024MAJ

W0-1CF MontrealvDC UnitedJul 26, 2023LEA

DC United: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	DC United Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)	14	4	5	5	17-21	17	DLDWW
12	CF Montreal	13	4	1	8	18-27	13	LDWLW

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

DC United

D1-1St. Louis CityMay 16MAJ

L1-3Chicago FireMay 13MAJ

D2-2Nashville SCMay 10MAJ

W2-0New York City FCMay 3MAJ

W3-2Orlando City SCApr 25MAJ

D4-4New York Red BullsApr 22MAJ

D0-0Philadelphia UnionApr 18MAJ

L0-1New England RevolutionApr 11MAJ

L0-4FC DallasApr 4MAJ

D0-0Atlanta United FCMar 21MAJ

W2-1Chicago FireMar 15MAJ

L1-2Inter MiamiMar 7MAJ

L0-1AustinMar 1MAJ

W1-0Philadelphia UnionFeb 22MAJ

D0-0Minnesota United FCFeb 11FRI

CF Montreal

L0-2Chicago FireMay 16MAJ

D2-2Portland TimbersMay 13MAJ

W2-0Orlando City SCMay 9MAJ

W5-0Calgary Blizzard SCMay 6CAN

L1-3Atlanta United FCMay 2MAJ

W1-0New York City FCApr 25MAJ

W4-1New York Red BullsApr 18MAJ

L1-2Philadelphia UnionApr 11MAJ

L0-3New England RevolutionApr 4MAJ

L3-4FC CincinnatiMar 22MAJ

L1-2Orlando City SCMar 14MAJ

W3-0New York Red BullsMar 8MAJ

L0-3Chicago FireFeb 28MAJ

L0-5San DiegoFeb 22MAJ

L0-2Tampa Bay RowdiesFeb 14FRI

Squad & Injuries

DC United

25 available

Attackers4

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

CF Montreal

29 available

Attackers10

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

No

Under 2.5

DC United or Draw

Under 1.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

DC United

CF Montreal

Squad & Injuries

DC United

CF Montreal