Bologna1Torino1

HT 1–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 11–14On targetOn target 1–3CornersCorners 1–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 04:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Bologna vs Torino is expected to be a tight, low-scoring match.

The best value lies in backing the draw (34% model vs 29% implied) and the first-half draw (55% vs 45%). Avoid the double chance 'Bologna or Draw' at 1.22, as it is significantly overpriced.

Context

Bologna are 17th in Serie A with one point from four matches, having scored two goals and conceded five.
Their recent league form shows a 1-0 loss at Napoli on 13 September, a 2-2 home draw with Sassuolo on 6 September, a 1-0 loss at Atalanta on 31 August, and a 1-0 home loss to Lazio on 24 August. This run leaves them without a win and with only two goals scored, so they need a result at home against Torino to avoid falling further behind.
- Bologna lost 1-0 at Napoli on 13 September 2026.
- Bologna drew 2-2 at home with Sassuolo on 6 September 2026.
- Bologna lost 1-0 at Atalanta on 31 August 2026.
- Bologna lost 1-0 at home to Lazio on 24 August 2026.
Torino are 14th in Serie A with three points from three matches, having scored four goals and conceded five.
They won 2-1 at Fiorentina on 5 September, but lost 2-1 at Sassuolo on 29 August and 2-1 at home to AC Milan on 23 August. Their away form is mixed with one win and one loss, so they will look to improve on the road against a struggling Bologna side.
- Torino won 2-1 at Fiorentina on 5 September 2026.
- Torino lost 2-1 at Sassuolo on 29 August 2026.
- Torino lost 2-1 at home to AC Milan on 23 August 2026.
Bologna attacker R. Orsolini started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His confirmed left-hamstring injury removes a wide-attacking selection option for Bologna. The team must cover his absence from other attacking players, which narrows their choices in wide areas.
- Medical tests after the Atalanta match found a lesion in Orsolini's left hamstring, with an estimated recovery period of about three weeks.
- Bologna reported on 11 September that Orsolini was training separately.
- R. Orsolini started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 04:40 · Europe/BucharestSky Sport: Orsolini injury updatesport.sky.it · 3 Sep 2026Bologna FC: tactical session updatewww.bolognafc.it · 11 Sep 2026
The last five Serie A meetings between Bologna and Torino have produced two Bologna wins, one Torino win, and two draws.
Bologna won 2-1 at Torino on 15 February 2026 and 2-0 at Torino on 21 December 2024, while Torino won 3-2 at Bologna on 14 February 2025. The other two matches ended 0-0, so recent history slightly favours Bologna, but the teams have been closely matched.
- Bologna won 2-1 at Torino on 15 February 2026.
- Bologna won 2-0 at Torino on 21 December 2024.
- Torino won 3-2 at Bologna on 14 February 2025.
- The other two meetings ended 0-0.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in poor form and the recent head-to-head has been evenly split, making a draw the most likely single outcome.
- Bologna home record this season: 0W 1D 1L (2 goals for, 3 against)
- Torino away record this season: 1W 0D 1L (3 goals for, 3 against)
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws, 2 Bologna wins, 1 Torino win
- Bologna last 5 Serie A: 1W 1D 3L; Torino last 5 Serie A: 2W 1D 2L
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna's home advantage and recent H2H resilience at home support a double chance of Bologna or draw.
- Bologna home record this season: 0W 1D 1L
- Torino away record this season: 1W 0D 1L
- Bologna have not lost at home to Torino in last 3 meetings (2W 1D)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBologna or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at half-time, and recent head-to-head first halves have been evenly matched.
- Bologna leading at half-time in only 27% of matches
- Torino leading at half-time in only 13% of matches
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half performance is balanced, with neither team showing a strong edge, making a draw the most likely second-half result.
- Bologna second-half goal difference: -0.1 per match (0.6 scored, 0.7 conceded)
- Torino second-half goal difference: +0.3 per match (0.8 scored, 0.5 conceded)
- No clear second-half dominance in recent H2H
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high half-time draw rates, and the overall match is expected to be tight, supporting a draw/draw double.
- Bologna draw at half-time in 46% of matches (27% lead, 27% trail)
- Torino draw at half-time in 54% of matches (13% lead, 33% trail)
- Last 5 H2H: 2 matches were draws at full-time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring averages and recent head-to-head matches have been tight, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Bologna average 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match
- Torino average 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have struggled to score consistently, and recent meetings often see at least one side fail to score.
- Bologna failed to score in 3 of last 5 Serie A matches
- Torino failed to score in 2 of last 5 Serie A matches
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in only 2 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Bologna average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded
- Torino average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Last 5 H2H: 4 matches had 0 or 1 first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, and the combined average is close to the 1.5 line, giving a slight edge to over.
- Bologna average 0.6 second-half goals scored (1.1 total - 0.5 first half)
- Torino average 0.8 second-half goals scored (1.1 total - 0.3 first half)
- Combined second-half average is 1.4 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average relatively low corner counts, and the combined average is below the 9.5 line.
- Bologna average 4.6 corners per match, Torino average 3.9
- Combined average corners: 8.5
- Last 5 H2H: corner data unavailable
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low shots on target averages, making under 8.5 likely.
- Bologna average 3.7 shots on target per match
- Torino average 2.5 shots on target per match
- Combined average shots on target: 6.2
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average is below the line, but the competitive nature of the match could push cards over 3.5.
- Bologna average 1.7 yellow cards per match
- Torino average 1.3 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.0
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance52%