Cremonese - Torino

🇮🇹 Serie AUpcoming

Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 10:30

Quick Take

Torino unbeaten in four H2H meetings and facing a Cremonese side crippled by five key injuries (including both strikers) and plagued by 0.6 goals per match form; First Half Draw at 2.00 and Double Chance Torino/Draw at 1.43 both offer material edges over market pricing.

Double ChanceDraw or Torino72%+2.1pp

1st Half ResultDraw55%+5.0pp

Context Signals

1st Half Result — Draw

HIGHMarket

Cremonese scored 0 FH goals in their last 10 matches while Torino leads at HT in only 20% of games; convergence of zero offensive threat at HT and Torino's cautious setup under new manager (7 weeks), plus 3 of 4 recent H2H meetings were drawn at HT.

•Cremonese: 0 first-half goals in last 10 matches
•Torino: Leading at HT in only 20% of last 10 matches
•H2H: 3 of 4 recent meetings drawn at half-time

Double Chance — Draw or Torino

MEDIUMMarket

Cremonese's catastrophic home record (2 wins in 15, 13% win rate) combined with injury crisis (5 key players missing), managerial uncertainty, and Torino's unbeaten H2H run (W2 D2) make a Cremonese home win highly unlikely despite 1.43 oddscomfortably pricing this at nearly 70%.

•Cremonese home win rate: 2 of 15 (13.3%)
•Torino unbeaten in last 4 H2H (W2 D2)
•Cremonese missing 5 players (Vardy, Moumbagna, Collocolo, Maleh, Thorsby)

Betting Edges

Implied: 69.9% → Our estimate: 72% → Edge: +2.1pts

•Cremonese home win rate: 2 of 15 (13.3%)
•Torino unbeaten in last 4 H2H (W2 D2)
•Cremonese missing 5 players (Vardy, Moumbagna, Collocolo, Maleh, Thorsby)

Implied: 50% → Our estimate: 55% → Edge: +5pts

•Cremonese: 0 first-half goals in last 10 matches
•Torino: Leading at HT in only 20% of last 10 matches
•H2H: 3 of 4 recent meetings drawn at half-time

Model probabilities

Double ChanceDraw or Torino72%High

Cremonese's dire home win rate, near-zero attacking output compounded by key injuries, and Torino's complete H2H dominance make a Cremonese win unlikely despite their desperation.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Cards Over/UnderOver 3.568%High

The combined foul rate (~29.5 per match) and yellow card averages (~3.9 combined) from both sides, amplified by relegation desperation from Cremonese, strongly supports 4+ cards.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.562%High

The H2H pattern of low-scoring games combines with both teams losing primary attacking options to injury, and Cremonese's league-worst 0.6 GPG scoring rate makes a sub-3-goal total highly probable.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Lean

Corners Over/UnderUnder 9.560%Medium

Both teams are low-corner-generating sides with combined averages well below 10, and neither team dominates possession enough to sustain sustained attacking pressure for corner accumulation.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

1st Half GoalsUnder 0.558%High

Cremonese's extraordinary inability to score in first halves (0 in last 10 matches), Torino's modest 0.5 FH goals, and the H2H pattern of drawn half-times all strongly support a goalless first half.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Lean

First Half WinnerDraw55%High

The convergence of Cremonese's zero first-half goals, Torino's low HT-leading rate, consistent H2H HT draws, and dual managerial caution strongly favors a level first half.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Both Teams to ScoreNo52%Medium

Cremonese's skeletal attacking options and abysmal scoring rate create a strong chance of a home blank, especially given H2H precedent of Cremonese shutouts.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Home Goals TotalUnder 0.548%Medium

Cremonese's skeletal attack — stripped of two forwards and a creative midfielder — combined with their dismal 0.6 GPG rate and zero first-half goals in 10 matches makes a home shutout a realistic outcome.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Asian HandicapTorino -0.2548%Medium

Torino's H2H dominance, relative quality advantage (12th vs 17th), and Cremonese's home futility and massive injury crisis give Torino a slight edge that supports a small Asian handicap line.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Match WinnerTorino42%Medium

Torino's superior H2H dominance, Cremonese's catastrophic home record (2 wins in 15), and Cremonese's crippling midfield/attack absences all favor the visitors despite Torino's own mediocre away form.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Away Clean SheetYes35%Low

While Torino's away defensive record is poor overall (30 GA in 16), Cremonese's depleted attack and historically low output against Torino give a reasonable chance of an away clean sheet.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Cremonese:Despite 34.5% implied odds, Cremonese's 13% home win rate (2 of 15), zero first-half goals in last 10 matches, 5 key player absences, and managerial instability (Giampaolo only ~4 weeks in) make this a trap. Market is overpricing the home team's chances.

Asian Handicap Torino -1.5:High vigorish on handicap lines; Torino's away record is only 25% (4 of 16 wins), inconsistent form (WWLWL last 5), and Cremonese's relegation-fight desperation suggest big margins unlikely. Better to use safer alternatives like DNB or double chance.

1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 0.5 @ 2.50:HIGH confidence prediction (58%) generates suspicious +18pt edge on an efficiently-priced market. Bookmakers typically price first-half totals tightly; this outlier gap suggests either prediction overconfidence or a market trap masking unknown variables (managerial disruption, tactical uncertainty post-Nicola sacking).

Cremonese vs Torino shapes up as a clash between desperation and stability, with the structural advantage clearly favoring the visitors. Cremonese sit 17th in the standings and are fighting for Serie A survival with only nine league matches remaining—a situation that forced their hand in sacking Davide Nicola on 18 March. Marco Giampaolo's appointment came amid enormous uncertainty, leaving the home side roughly four weeks to implement new tactics while simultaneously dealing with a decimated squad.

Recent Form

Cremonese

L0-1CagliariApr 11SA

L1-2BolognaApr 5SA

W2-0ParmaMar 21SA

L1-4FiorentinaMar 16SA

L1-2LecceMar 8SA

L0-2AC MilanMar 1SA

L0-3AS RomaFeb 22SA

D0-0GenoaFeb 15SA

L1-2AtalantaFeb 9SA

L0-2InterFeb 1SA

Torino

W2-1Hellas VeronaApr 11SA

W1-0PisaApr 5SA

L2-3AC MilanMar 21SA

W4-1ParmaMar 13SA

L1-2NapoliMar 6SA

W2-0LazioMar 1SA

L0-3GenoaFeb 22SA

L1-2BolognaFeb 15SA

D2-2FiorentinaFeb 7SA

L1-2InterFeb 4CI

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
17	Cremonese	32	6	9	17	26-47	27	LLWLL
12	Torino	32	11	6	15	37-54	39	WWLWL

12pt gap between teams

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L1-0TorinovCremoneseDec 13, 2025SA

L4-1TorinovCremoneseJul 26, 2025FRI

W1-2TorinovCremoneseJul 27, 2024FRI

D2-2TorinovCremoneseFeb 20, 2023SA

D0-0TorinovCremoneseDec 23, 2022FRI

Torino: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

Cremonese

10 out

Attackers4/9

×#14

×#10

×#14

×#10

Midfielders6/9

×#18

×#29

×#2

×#18

×#29

×#2

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

#18 M. Collocolo — Injury

#29 Y. Maleh — Red Card

#14 F. Moumbagna — Muscle Injury

#2 M. Thorsby — Injury

#10 J. Vardy — Muscle Injury

#18 M. Collocolo — Injury

#29 Y. Maleh — Red Card

#14 F. Moumbagna — Muscle Injury

#2 M. Thorsby — Injury

#10 J. Vardy — Muscle Injury

Torino

12 out

Attackers4/7

×#7

×#91

×#7

×#91

Midfielders12

Defenders6/10

×#44

×#25

×#77

×#44

×#25

×#77

Goalkeeper3

#7 Z. Aboukhlal — Muscle Injury

#44 A. Ismajli — Yellow Cards

#25 N. Nkounkou — Illness

Z. Savva — Knee Injury

#91 D. Zapata — Thigh Injury

#77 E. Ebosse — Injury

#7 Z. Aboukhlal — Muscle Injury

#44 A. Ismajli — Yellow Cards

#25 N. Nkounkou — Illness

Z. Savva — Knee Injury

#91 D. Zapata — Thigh Injury

#77 E. Ebosse — Injury