Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

Vasalunds IF0Hammarby TFF0

HT 0–0Thu 17 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–925%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 23:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Hammarby TFF are strong favourites based on away form, but the odds offer no value.

Avoid betting on the away win, double chance, and over 2.5 goals, as all are priced above our estimated probabilities. The best approach is to stay away from this match's main markets.

Context

Hammarby TFF sit second in Ettan Norra with 41 points from 21 matches. Their away record is 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses.
Hammarby TFF have been reliable on the road, scoring 26 goals and conceding only 7 in 10 away matches. Vasalunds IF have lost their last three league games, including a 2-1 defeat at FBK Karlstad on 12 September. The away side's defensive solidity could limit Vasalunds IF's chances, but Vasalunds IF have won 5 of 10 home matches, so the home venue may reduce the gap.
- Hammarby TFF away record: 8 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in 10 matches.
- Hammarby TFF away goals: 26 for, 7 against.
- Vasalunds IF lost 1-2 at FBK Karlstad on 2026-09-12.
- Vasalunds IF home record: 5 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses in 10 matches.
Vasalund IF appointed Janne Mian as men's head coach on 11 July 2026, and he remains in charge for this match. His first fixture as head coach was the 3 August match against Sollentuna.
Mian's stated philosophy of intense, brave and well-organised football gives Vasalund a defined pressing and defensive-organisation reference. This can shape how the team approaches Hammarby TFF, though the evidence does not specify which players or tactical details have changed since his appointment.
- Vasalund appointed Janne Mian head coach of its men's team on 11 July.
- The club described his football philosophy as intense, brave and well organised.
- Vasalund's 3 August match report identified the Sollentuna fixture as Mian's first as head coach.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 23:37 · Europe/BucharestVasalund IF: Janne Mian appointed head coachwww.vasalund.com · 11 Jul 2026Vasalund IF: Vasalund–Sollentuna match reportwww.vasalund.com · 3 Aug 2026
Hammarby TFF sit second in Ettan Norra on 41 points, one point above third and four behind first, occupying the promotion-playoff place. Vasalund are 12th on 23 points, level with 13th-placed Umeå FC in the negative-playoff position.
The result directly affects both teams' qualification incentives. Hammarby TFF can strengthen their promotion-playoff position, while Vasalund need points to avoid the relegation-playoff place. The table situation makes this a consequential fixture for both sides.
- Ettan's current Norra table lists Hammarby TFF second on 41 points, one point above third and four behind first.
- The same table lists Vasalund 12th on 23 points, level with 13th-placed Umeå FC in the negative-playoff position.
- The competition schedule lists Vasalund IF versus Hammarby TFF at Skytteholms IP in round 22 on 17 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 23:37 · Europe/BucharestEttan: 2026 table and round 22 scheduleettanfotboll.se · 15 Sep 2026
Vasalunds IF are 12th with 23 points, while Hammarby TFF are 2nd with 41 points. The home side's defensive numbers are among the weakest in the league.
Vasalunds IF concede 2.1 goals per match on average and have trailed at half-time in 40% of their matches. Hammarby TFF average 1.9 goals scored and lead at half-time in 40% of matches. This pattern suggests Hammarby TFF could take an early lead, but Vasalunds IF have scored in most home games, so the match may still see goals from both sides.
- Vasalunds IF average 2.1 goals conceded per match.
- Vasalunds IF trail at half-time in 40% of matches.
- Hammarby TFF average 1.9 goals scored per match.
- Hammarby TFF lead at half-time in 40% of matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Hammarby TFF

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby TFF's away record of 8W-0D-2L and superior goal difference give them a strong edge, but the odds already reflect that.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Hammarby TFF

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby TFF's strong away form and Vasalund's inconsistent home results make a Hammarby win or draw highly likely, but the odds are short.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Hammarby TFF

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby's first-half solidity and Vasalund's tendency to trail make a Hammarby lead or draw at half-time likely, but the odds are very short.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' scoring averages and Vasalund's leaky defense support Over 2.5, but the odds already price in a high probability.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Vasalund's consistent scoring and Hammarby's occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams can find the net, but the odds are slightly against value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the odds heavily favour Over 0.5, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF's superior away form and defensive solidity give them the edge despite Vasalund's home advantage.
- Hammarby TFF away record: 8W-0D-2L, 26 goals scored, 7 conceded in 10 away matches
- Vasalund home record: 5W-1D-4L, 18 goals scored, 18 conceded in 10 home matches
- Hammarby TFF overall: 12W-5D-4L, 46 goals scored, 18 conceded; Vasalund overall: 6W-5D-10L, 33 scored, 43 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHammarby TFFEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF's strong away form and Vasalund's inconsistent home results make a Hammarby win or draw highly likely.
- Hammarby TFF have lost only 2 of 10 away matches this season
- Vasalund have won only 5 of 10 home matches
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 1 Hammarby win, 1 Vasalund win
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Hammarby TFFEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often start cautiously, with Vasalund's first-half defensive issues balanced by Hammarby's moderate first-half scoring.
- Vasalund leading at half-time in 20% of matches, trailing in 40%
- Hammarby TFF leading at half-time in 40% of matches, trailing in 20%
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's stronger second-half scoring and Vasalund's defensive fatigue could tilt the second half in Hammarby's favor.
- Hammarby TFF score 1.3 goals per second half on average
- Vasalund concede 1.0 goals per second half on average
- Hammarby TFF's away second-half goal difference is +0.9
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostHammarby TFFEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Hammarby win is a plausible scenario given Hammarby's second-half strength.
- Hammarby TFF have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches
- Hammarby TFF win 55% of matches overall
- Vasalund draw at half-time in 40% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Hammarby TFFEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby could dominate both halves if they score early and maintain control, but this is a low-probability outcome.
- Hammarby TFF lead at half-time in 40% of matches
- Hammarby TFF win 55% of matches
- Vasalund trail at half-time in 40% of matches
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostHammarby TFFEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's first-half solidity and Vasalund's tendency to trail make a Hammarby lead or draw at half-time likely.
- Hammarby TFF lead at half-time in 40% of matches
- Vasalund trail at half-time in 40% of matches
- Hammarby TFF have not trailed at half-time in 60% of matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Hammarby TFFEstimated chance70%

Goals0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring averages, especially Vasalund's leaky defense, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Vasalund average 1.5 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match
- Hammarby TFF average 1.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match
- Combined average goals per match: 3.6 (Vasalund) + 2.6 (Hammarby) = 6.2 total
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vasalund's consistent scoring and Hammarby's occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams can find the net.
- Vasalund scored in 12 of 15 recent matches
- Hammarby TFF conceded in 6 of 15 recent matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with Vasalund's defense particularly vulnerable early.
- Vasalund average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded
- Hammarby TFF average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.3 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as Vasalund chase games and Hammarby exploit spaces.
- Vasalund average 0.8 second-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded
- Hammarby TFF average 1.3 second-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded
- Combined second-half goal average: 2.1 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half scoring rates, making a first-half goal from each side possible but not highly likely.
- Vasalund average 0.7 first-half goals scored
- Hammarby TFF average 0.6 first-half goals scored
- Both teams scored in first half in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance35%