Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Botafogo SP1Goias3

HT 1–1Mon 14 Sept 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 14–16On targetOn target 3–6CornersCorners 6–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 05:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Both teams are in poor form, making a low-scoring draw the most likely outcome, but the market has already priced in this scenario.

Avoid betting on Under 2.5 goals, Under 1.5 first-half goals, and the double chance for Botafogo SP or draw, as the odds offer no value. The only potential edge is if Anselmo Ramon's fitness news shifts the market, but until then, this match is best watched rather than wagered.

Context

Botafogo SP sit 15th in Serie B with 31 points from 27 matches, just two points above the relegation line.
Their recent form is poor: they lost 1-3 at home to Novorizontino on 2026-09-09, 0-1 away to Nautico Recife on 2026-09-03, 1-2 at home to Cuiaba on 2026-08-29, and 0-3 away to Atletico Goianiense on 2026-08-25. This run has put them under pressure to avoid slipping into the relegation zone, and they need a positive result at home against Goias.
- Lost 1-3 at home to Novorizontino on 2026-09-09.
- Lost 0-1 away to Nautico Recife on 2026-09-03.
- Lost 1-2 at home to Cuiaba on 2026-08-29.
- Lost 0-3 away to Atletico Goianiense on 2026-08-25.
Goias are 13th in Serie B with 36 points, but their away form has been weak: 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses in 14 away matches.
They lost 0-2 away to Vila Nova on 2026-09-10 and 0-1 away to Criciuma on 2026-08-15. Their away struggles are a concern, as they have scored only 13 goals in 14 away games while conceding 19. This could allow Botafogo SP to exploit their home advantage.
- Lost 0-2 away to Vila Nova on 2026-09-10.
- Lost 0-1 away to Criciuma on 2026-08-15.
- Away record: 3 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses in 14 matches.
Botafogo SP defender Patrick Brey is available again after serving a one-match ban.
His return gives the coach a left-back selection option that was unavailable in the previous match, when Felipe Vieira filled in. The suspension was for accumulated yellow cards, so no further absence is expected.
- Brey received his third yellow card in the 1-0 loss at Náutico.
- The 4 September report ruled him out of the following match against Novorizontino.
- Felipe Vieira was identified as the left-back replacement for that suspension.
ReportedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 05:47 · Europe/Bucharestgege.globo.com · 5 Sep 2026
The head-to-head record between these teams is mixed, but Botafogo SP have been stronger at home.
In the last five meetings, Botafogo SP won 1-0 at home on 2024-09-09, lost 0-1 at home on 2025-04-28, and won 1-0 at home on 2026-05-16 (as the away team in that fixture). The most recent meeting was a 1-0 win for Goias at home on 2026-05-16, but Botafogo SP's home advantage could be a factor.
- Botafogo SP won 1-0 at home on 2024-09-09.
- Botafogo SP lost 0-1 at home on 2025-04-28.
- Goias won 1-0 at home on 2026-05-16.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.94fair 3.13

BetBugs 32% · Market 34%

0.0ppshort

Both teams are in poor form with similar home/away splits, but the market's draw price is slightly shorter than our estimate, offering no value.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Lean

Botafogo SP or Draw

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 77%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favours the home side or draw, but our estimate is much lower, making this a poor value proposition.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

1.92fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 52%

0.0ppshort

Botafogo SP's tendency to draw at half-time is countered by Goias' strong first-half record, leaving no edge at this price.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have moderate scoring and defensive records, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have struggled to score consistently, and clean sheets are common in their recent matches.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring rates.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in poor form and have similar home/away splits, making a draw the most likely outcome.
- Botafogo SP home record: 5W 3D 5L, 22 goals for, 18 against in 13 home matches.
- Goias away record: 3W 5D 6L, 13 goals for, 19 against in 14 away matches.
- Botafogo SP last 5 form: LLLLD (0W 1D 4L), but 3 of those losses were by one goal.
- Goias last 5 form: LLWDL (1W 1D 3L), with 3 losses by one goal.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo SP's home advantage and Goias's poor away form make a home win or draw likely.
- Botafogo SP home record: 5W 3D 5L, 22 goals for, 18 against in 13 home matches.
- Goias away record: 3W 5D 6L, 13 goals for, 19 against in 14 away matches.
- Botafogo SP last 5 home matches: 2W 1D 2L, including a 4-2 win over Juventude.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostBotafogo SP or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Botafogo SP's tendency to draw at half time and Goias's mixed first-half form make a level first half likely.
- Botafogo SP leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 20%.
- Goias leading at half time in 53% of matches, trailing in 27%.
- Botafogo SP last 5 matches: 4 draws at half time.
- Goias last 5 matches: 2 draws at half time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time and full time is possible given both teams' tendencies, but probability is low.
- Botafogo SP half time draw rate: 60% (9 of 15 matches).
- Goias half time draw rate: 20% (3 of 15 matches).
- Botafogo SP full time draw rate: 20% (3 of 15 matches).
- Goias full time draw rate: 20% (3 of 15 matches).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring and defensive records, suggesting a low-scoring match.
- Botafogo SP home matches average 3.08 total goals (22+18 in 13).
- Goias away matches average 2.29 total goals (13+19 in 14).
- Combined average total goals in their matches: 2.69.
- Botafogo SP last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have struggled to score consistently, and clean sheets are common in their recent matches.
- Botafogo SP home matches: 22 goals for, 18 against in 13, but 5 clean sheets.
- Goias away matches: 13 goals for, 19 against in 14, with 5 clean sheets.
- Botafogo SP last 5 matches: 3 clean sheets for opponents.
- Goias last 5 matches: 3 clean sheets for opponents.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring rates.
- Botafogo SP first half goals average: 0.4 per match, conceded 0.3.
- Goias first half goals average: 0.7 per match, conceded 0.5.
- Combined first half average total goals: 1.9, but many matches have 0 or 1 first half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as teams push for results, but evidence is mixed.
- Botafogo SP second half goals average: 0.9 per match (1.3 total - 0.4 first half).
- Goias second half goals average: 0.2 per match (0.9 total - 0.7 first half).
- Combined second half average total goals: 1.1, but variance is high.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the total is likely to exceed 9.5.
- Botafogo SP average corners per match: 5.6, opponent corners: 6.9, total 12.5.
- Goias average corners per match: 4.5, opponent corners: 5.9, total 10.4.
- Combined average total corners: 11.45.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low shots on target averages, suggesting a low total.
- Botafogo SP average shots on target: 3.7, opponent: 4.1, total 7.8.
- Goias average shots on target: 3.6, opponent: 4.3, total 7.9.
- Combined average total shots on target: 7.85.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate card counts, and the total is likely to exceed 4.5.
- Botafogo SP average yellow cards: 2.1, opponent: 2.1, total 4.2.
- Goias average yellow cards: 1.8, opponent: 2.3, total 4.1.
- Combined average total yellow cards: 4.15.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%