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Viking StavangerKristiansund

Sun 13 Sept 2026, 12:3013 Sept, 12:30

14Probabilities0Priced10Edges90%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 17:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Viking are strong favourites at home, but the odds already reflect that dominance, leaving no value in the match winner (1.22) or double chance (1.07).

The only marginal edge is second-half goals Over 1.5 at 1.83, but it is too small to bet; the smart play is to avoid the short Viking markets and consider in-play options if Kristiansund's new signings keep the game tight early.

Context

Viking's enforced defensive absence and short recovery window, plus Kristiansund's immediate right-back and midfield additions, shape selection and preparation.

Viking are second in Eliteserien with 44 points from 19 matches, three points behind leaders Bodo/Glimt.
At home, Viking have won all eight league games, scoring 27 goals and conceding only nine. Kristiansund have won just one of ten away matches, losing seven and conceding 18 goals. This contrast suggests Viking can control the match and create many chances, while Kristiansund may find it hard to keep a clean sheet.
- Viking home record: 8 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 27 goals for, 9 against.
- Kristiansund away record: 1 win, 2 draws, 7 losses, 7 goals for, 18 against.
Viking defender J. Daland was sent off in the 50th minute against Sandefjord on 4 September.
His suspension removes a starting centre-back from the back line for this match. Viking must adjust their defensive selection, likely promoting a reserve or shifting an existing defender into his role. The enforced change reduces continuity in a unit that has been disrupted by the red card.
- Norges Fotballforbund recorded Jesper Norman Daland in Viking's starting XI against Sandefjord on 4 September.
- The official match record lists Daland's sending-off in the 50th minute.
- FotMob's current Viking–Kristiansund page lists Daland as suspended through 13 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:28 · Europe/BucharestNorges Fotballforbund: Sandefjord Fotball 1-1 Vikingwww.fotball.no · 4 Sep 2026FotMob: Viking vs Kristiansundwww.fotmob.com · 10 Sep 2026
Kristiansund have 19 points from 19 matches, with a goal difference of -10.
They are only one point above the relegation playoff place, so a loss could see them fall into the bottom three. This pressure may force them to attack more, but it also increases the risk of leaving space for Viking's strong home attack.
- Kristiansund rank 13th with 19 points.
- KFUM Oslo in 14th also have 19 points, and Aalesund in 15th have 18 points.
Viking played a Champions League away match at Stuttgart on 9 September, losing 3-1.
The four-day turnaround between that fixture and this league match limits recovery and preparation time. Viking may rotate or manage minutes for players who featured in Germany. The short window could affect intensity levels, especially in the second half.
- Viking published Stuttgart away as a Champions League fixture on 9 September at 18:45.
- Viking's official results page records a 3-1 loss at Stuttgart on 9 September.
- The Norwegian FA schedules Viking–Kristiansund for 13 September at Lyse Arena.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:28 · Europe/BucharestViking: Champions League dateswww.vikingfotball.no · 29 Aug 2026Viking resultswww.vikingfotball.no · 9 Sep 2026Norges Fotballforbund: Viking vs Kristiansundwww.fotball.no · 13 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 9

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Strong lean

Viking Stavanger

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Viking's perfect home record and Kristiansund's poor away form support a home win, but the odds already price in a very high probability, leaving no value.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Viking Stavanger or Draw

1.07fair 1.11

BetBugs 90% · Market 93%

0.0ppshort

Viking's unbeaten home record makes this a very safe bet, but the odds are so low that there is no value.

1 St Half ResultUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Viking Stavanger

1.55fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 65%

0.0ppshort

Viking's first-half lead rate is only 40%, so the odds overestimate their chance of leading at the break.

2 Nd Half ResultUncertainty band: Slight lean

Viking Stavanger

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65%

0.0ppshort

Viking's second-half strength is real, but the odds already reflect it, leaving no value.

HT/FTUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Viking Stavanger at half-time / Viking Stavanger at full-time

1.70fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 59%

0.0ppshort

The HT/FT combo requires Viking to lead at half-time and win, but their first-half lead rate is only 40%, so the price is too short.

1 St Half Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Viking Stavanger or Draw

1.07fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 93%

0.0ppshort

Viking are unlikely to be behind at half-time, but the odds are so low that there is no value.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Viking's home scoring and Kristiansund's away defensive weakness support goals, but the odds already price in a very high probability, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown scoring ability, but the odds are close to fair and offer no meaningful edge.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.20fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

The odds heavily favor No, but our estimate is much lower, making this a poor value bet despite the likely outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result7 outcomes · top 90%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Viking's perfect home record and Kristiansund's poor away form, combined with recent H2H dominance, make a home win highly likely.
- Viking home record: 8 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 27 goals for, 9 against in 8 Eliteserien matches.
- Kristiansund away record: 1 win, 2 draws, 7 losses, 7 goals for, 18 against in 10 away matches.
- Viking won last 3 H2H meetings, including 2-1 away in May 2026 and 3-1 home in April 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerViking StavangerEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Viking's unbeaten home record and Kristiansund's away struggles, the double chance of Viking or draw is very safe.
- Viking have not lost at home this season (8W 0D 0L).
- Kristiansund have only 1 away win in 10 matches.
- Viking are 2nd in the table with 44 points; Kristiansund are 13th with 19.
BetBugs · Double ChanceViking Stavanger or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Viking's stronger first-half scoring and Kristiansund's tendency to trail at the break support a home lead.
- Viking lead at half-time in 40% of matches; Kristiansund trail at half-time in 47%.
- Viking average 0.9 first-half goals vs Kristiansund's 0.5.
- Viking have won the first half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerViking StavangerEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Viking's home strength and Kristiansund's away second-half collapses make a Viking second-half win likely.
- Viking have a positive second-half goal difference in home matches.
- Kristiansund have lost the second half in 5 of their last 7 away matches.
- Viking's fitness and depth often lead to stronger finishes.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerViking StavangerEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Viking's ability to start strong and maintain leads at home makes HT/FT Viking/Viking a solid option.
- Viking lead at half-time in 40% of matches and win 74% overall.
- Kristiansund trail at half-time in 47% of matches and lose 53% overall.
- Viking have won both halves in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleViking Stavanger/Viking StavangerEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Viking's home dominance could lead to winning both halves, but it's a riskier bet.
- Viking have won both halves in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Kristiansund have lost both halves in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- Viking's home goal difference is +18, indicating dominance throughout matches.
BetBugs · Win Both HalvesYesEstimated chance30%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Viking are unlikely to be behind at half-time at home, making the double chance very safe.
- Viking lead at half-time in 40% of matches and draw at half-time in 27%.
- Kristiansund trail at half-time in 47% of matches.
- Viking have not trailed at half-time in their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfViking Stavanger or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals5 outcomes · top 62%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Viking's strong home scoring and Kristiansund's defensive weaknesses suggest a high-scoring game.
- Viking average 1.7 goals per match overall and 3.4 goals per home match (27 in 8).
- Kristiansund concede 1.5 goals per match overall and 1.8 per away match.
- Last 3 H2H meetings produced 3, 1, and 4 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown scoring ability recently, and Viking's defense has been leaky, making BTTS likely.
- Viking have conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches across all competitions.
- Kristiansund have scored in 4 of their last 5 Eliteserien matches.
- Viking's home matches average 4.5 total goals, indicating both teams often score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first-half goal averages are near the line, but Viking's home attacking edge could push it over.
- Viking average 0.9 first-half goals and 0.7 first-half goals conceded.
- Kristiansund average 0.5 first-half goals and 0.7 first-half goals conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.4, close to the 1.5 line.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring trends and Viking's home dominance suggest more goals after the break.
- Viking score 0.8 goals per second half on average (1.7 total - 0.9 first half).
- Kristiansund concede 0.8 goals per second half on average (1.5 total - 0.7 first half).
- Viking's home matches often see late goals due to their attacking depth.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring is moderate, and both teams scoring before the break is less common.
- Viking average 0.9 first-half goals and 0.7 first-half goals conceded.
- Kristiansund average 0.5 first-half goals and 0.7 first-half goals conceded.
- Only 2 of Viking's last 5 home matches had both teams score in the first half.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 outcomes · top 50%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages suggest around 10 corners, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Viking average 6.5 corners per match; Kristiansund average 4.6.
- Viking's home matches average 7.5 corners for them and 4.5 against.
- Kristiansund's away matches average 4.2 corners for them and 6.8 against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Total shots on target averages around 8.5, making this a borderline call.
- Viking average 5 shots on target per match; Kristiansund average 3.
- Viking's home matches average 6.5 shots on target for them and 3.5 against.
- Kristiansund's away matches average 2.5 shots on target for them and 5.5 against.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Prediction history

Viking Stavanger has been reliable when projected over 2.5 goals

Viking Stavanger has fulfilled 4 of 6 recent over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 66.7%, matching the expected fulfilment of 4. The current prediction of 62% sits within the historical range of 60-75%, suggesting consistency with past projections.

Recent evidence for Viking Stavanger6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Eliteserien