Suduva Marijampole0Zalgiris Vilnius0

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 15:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 05:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Sūduva's unbeaten home record and title-race incentive make them strong favourites, with the double chance (Sūduva or draw) offering the best value at 1.78 (model 75% vs implied 56%).

Avoid backing Žalgiris to win and the first-half over 0.5 goals line, which are both overpriced.

Context

Suduva lead the A Lyga with 48 points and have played 12 home matches.
Their home record is 7 wins and 5 draws with 18 goals scored and only 6 conceded. This defensive solidity at home is a key factor against Zalgiris, who have struggled away from home. However, Zalgiris have won 5 of their 12 away games, so they are capable of causing problems.
- Suduva home record: 7 wins, 5 draws, 0 losses, 18 goals for, 6 goals against.
- Suduva are unbeaten in their last 12 home matches.
Sūduva begin the round as league leaders on 48 points, three ahead of Kauno Žalgiris who have a game in hand.
The midweek 5-1 loss to Kauno Žalgiris leaves Sūduva needing to protect their lead at home. Their incentive to control the match and avoid further dropped points is directly tied to the title race, though the three-point cushion with a game in hand for the chasers means the pressure is real but not yet decisive.
- Sūduva’s official table listed the club first on 48 points after the 9 September match.
- The same table listed Kauno Žalgiris second on 45 points from one fewer match.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 05:39 · Europe/BucharestFK Sūduva match report and tablefksuduva.lt · 9 Sep 2026
Zalgiris sit third with 40 points and have played 12 away games.
Their away record is 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 14 goals scored and 11 conceded. The recent 2-0 loss at Panevėžys shows they can be beaten on the road. However, they also have away wins against weaker sides, so their form is mixed.
- Zalgiris away record: 5 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses.
- Lost 2-0 at Panevėžys on 2026-08-30.
Sūduva conceded early in their last match after losing possession and again from a corner in the 30th minute.
The 5-1 defeat exposed build-up security and set-piece defending as immediate concerns. With only four days between matches, Sūduva have limited time to correct these errors, and Žalgiris may look to press high and target corners to exploit the same weaknesses.
- TOPLYGA reported that Sūduva made early errors and conceded in the fourth minute after losing possession.
- The report recorded a second goal from a 30th-minute corner.
- Kauno Žalgiris won the match 5–1.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 05:39 · Europe/BucharestTOPLYGA Kauno Žalgiris–Sūduva reporttoplyga.lt · 9 Sep 2026FK Sūduva Kauno Žalgiris–Sūduva reportfksuduva.lt · 9 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suduva's strong home record and title-race motivation give them the edge, though Zalgiris' quality keeps the probability moderate.
- Suduva are unbeaten at home this season with 7 wins and 5 draws in 12 matches.
- Suduva have won 4 of their last 5 league matches, scoring 2+ goals in each win.
- Zalgiris have lost 4 of their last 6 away league matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSuduva MarijampoleEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suduva's home invincibility and Zalgiris' inconsistent away form make the home side not losing highly likely.
- Suduva are unbeaten at home this season (7W, 5D).
- Zalgiris have won only 5 of 12 away matches.
- Suduva have lost only 4 of 26 league matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSuduva Marijampole or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suduva's home advantage and Zalgiris' tendency to trail early give a slight edge, but the probability remains low due to variability.
- Suduva lead at half-time in 33% of matches.
- Zalgiris trail at half-time in 27% of matches.
- Suduva have led at half-time in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSuduva MarijampoleEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a half-time lead is possible but not highly probable given Zalgiris' ability to compete.
- Suduva have led at half-time and won in 3 of 12 home matches.
- Zalgiris have trailed at half-time and lost in 3 of 12 away matches.
- Suduva's home dominance suggests they can control the match from early on.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostSuduva Marijampole / Suduva MarijampoleEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown scoring ability, and recent H2H meetings have often been high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Suduva's home matches average 2.0 total goals, but their recent home form shows 2+ goals in 4 of last 5.
- Zalgiris' away matches average 2.08 total goals.
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 3, 1, 4, 1, and 4 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.
- Suduva have scored in 11 of 12 home matches.
- Zalgiris have scored in 9 of 12 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Suduva's attacking intent at home likely to produce early chances.
- Suduva average 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- Zalgiris average 0.5 first-half goals per match but concede 0.8 first-half goals.
- In 4 of Suduva's last 5 matches, there was at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' tendencies, but the probability is near coin-flip due to limited direct data.
- Suduva's home matches average 1.0 second-half goals.
- Zalgiris' away matches average 1.17 second-half goals.
- Recent H2H meetings have seen second-half goals in 4 of 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suduva's strong home defence gives them a chance to shut out Zalgiris, but Zalgiris' attacking quality lowers confidence.
- Suduva have kept clean sheets in 6 of 12 home matches.
- Zalgiris have failed to score in 3 of 12 away matches.
- Suduva's home defence concedes only 0.5 goals per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonZalgiris Vilnius not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suduva's consistent home scoring makes it unlikely Zalgiris will keep a clean sheet.
- Zalgiris have kept clean sheets in only 3 of 12 away matches.
- Suduva have scored in 11 of 12 home matches.
- Suduva average 1.5 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSuduva Marijampole to scoreEstimated chance70%