Mallorca2Sabadell0

HT 2–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–283%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 34%–66%ShotsShots 13–18On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 01:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Mallorca's home strength and Sabadell's away draws point to a tight, low-scoring match, but the odds on a home win are too short.

The only clear value is the first-half draw at 2.15, where our 50% estimate beats the 46.5% implied probability. Avoid the heavily juiced double chance and first-half under 1.5 goals lines.

Context

Mallorca are 7th in La Liga 2 with 7 points from 4 games.
They have won both home matches, beating AD Ceuta FC 3-0 on 30 August and Valladolid 2-0 on 15 August. This home strength may help them against Sabadell, who have drawn both away games 0-0.
- Mallorca beat AD Ceuta FC 3-0 at home on 2026-08-30.
- Mallorca beat Valladolid 2-0 at home on 2026-08-15.
Mallorca head coach Luis García has his side pressing in tight lines and recovering quickly, as seen in the September 5 draw with Eldense.
That compact pressure can limit Sabadell's ability to escape after regains and attack the space behind Mallorca's advanced shape. Sabadell's man-oriented press will test how quickly Mallorca can counter-press after losing the ball, making the midfield turnover battle a key part of the match.
- Mallorca's official site identified Luis García as the first-team coach at his September 3 pre-Eldense press conference.
- Última Hora reported that Mallorca held tight lines against Eldense, pressed them deep and recovered quickly to return play near the Eldense area.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 01:00 · Europe/BucharestRCD Mallorcawww.rcdmallorca.es · 3 Sep 2026Última Horaamp.ultimahora.es · 6 Sep 2026
Sabadell are 3rd in La Liga 2 with 8 points from 4 games.
They drew 0-0 at Castellón on 23 August and 0-0 at Sporting Gijon on 17 August. This pattern suggests they may struggle to score against Mallorca, who have kept clean sheets at home.
- Sabadell drew 0-0 at Castellón on 2026-08-23.
- Sabadell drew 0-0 at Sporting Gijon on 2026-08-17.
Sabadell's 5-3-2 remains man-for-man and intense, as described by Córdoba coach Iván Ania before their September 7 meeting.
That player-to-player pressure can disrupt Mallorca's first phase and create direct attacking situations from turnovers. Mallorca's build-up will be tested immediately when possession changes hands, and Sabadell's high regains could lead to quick chances.
- Before facing Sabadell, Córdoba coach Iván Ania described their 5-3-2 as man-for-man, intense and designed to force quick decisions.
- AS reported that a recovery near Córdoba's goal created Sabadell's opening goal in the September 7 match.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 01:00 · Europe/BucharestASas.com · 6 Sep 2026ASas.com · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's perfect home record with no goals conceded and Sabadell's goalless away draws give the hosts a structural edge, though Sabadell's unbeaten start keeps confidence medium.
- Mallorca home record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 5 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- Sabadell away record this season: 0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 0 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- Mallorca overall form: DWLW, 7 points from 4 matches; Sabadell overall form: WWDD, 8 points from 4 matches.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 2 matches, both won by home team 1-0 (2021 and 2020).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMallorcaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Mallorca's strong home form with Sabadell's tendency to draw away makes a home win or draw highly likely.
- Mallorca home record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- Sabadell away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.
- Mallorca have not lost at home this season; Sabadell have not won away this season.
- H2H: home team won both previous meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMallorca or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half leads and Sabadell's away first halves have been draws, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Mallorca leading at half time in 47% of matches, trailing in 20%.
- Sabadell leading at half time in 27% of matches, trailing in 20%.
- Mallorca first half results in home matches: 1 draw, 1 win.
- Sabadell first half results in away matches: 2 draws.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's home second-half scoring and Sabadell's away scoring drought give the hosts a slight edge to win the second half, though confidence is low due to Sabadell's defensive record.
- Mallorca have scored 4 second-half goals in 2 home matches.
- Sabadell have not scored in any away match this season.
- Mallorca overall second-half goal difference: +0.4 per match.
- Sabadell overall second-half goal difference: +0.5 per match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonMallorcaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Mallorca win is plausible given Mallorca's home strength and Sabadell's away draws, but the specific sequence is less certain.
- Mallorca have drawn at half time in 2 of 4 matches overall.
- Mallorca have won both home matches this season.
- Sabadell have drawn at half time in 2 of 2 away matches.
- Sabadell have not won away this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/MallorcaEstimated chance22%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have solid defensive records, especially Sabadell away, and Mallorca's home games have been low-scoring against weaker opposition, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Mallorca average goals per match: 1.6 for, 0.9 against.
- Sabadell average goals per match: 1.4 for, 0.7 against.
- Mallorca home matches this season: 5 goals in 2 games (2.5 per game), but 0 conceded.
- Sabadell away matches this season: 0 goals in 2 games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's home defensive solidity and Sabadell's away scoring struggles make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Mallorca have kept clean sheets in all 2 home matches this season.
- Sabadell have failed to score in both away matches this season.
- Sabadell average goals conceded: 0.7 per match overall.
- Mallorca average goals conceded: 0.9 per match overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's home defensive record and Sabadell's away attacking impotence strongly support a home clean sheet.
- Mallorca have not conceded at home this season (0 goals in 2 matches).
- Sabadell have not scored away this season (0 goals in 2 matches).
- Mallorca average goals conceded overall: 0.9 per match.
- Sabadell average goals scored away: 0.0 per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSabadell not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Mallorca average first half goals: 0.7 for, 0.4 against.
- Sabadell average first half goals: 0.5 for, 0.3 against.
- Mallorca first half goals in home matches: 1 in 2 games (0.5 per game).
- Sabadell first half goals in away matches: 0 in 2 games.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Mallorca's home second-half scoring, Sabadell's defensive resilience and low overall scoring trends suggest under 1.5 second-half goals.
- Mallorca average second half goals: 0.9 for, 0.5 against (derived from totals minus first half).
- Sabadell average second half goals: 0.9 for, 0.4 against.
- Mallorca home second half goals: 4 in 2 games (2.0 per game), but against weaker teams.
- Sabadell away second half goals: 0 in 2 games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4-5 corners each, and recent head-to-head and home/away patterns suggest total corners often stay under 10.
- Mallorca average corners per match: 4.3 for, opponent corners not directly available but recent matches show 3-8 total.
- Sabadell average corners per match: 4.5 for, opponent corners not directly available but recent matches show 3-8 total.
- Mallorca home matches this season: 3 and 3 corners for, opponents 3 and 3 (total 6 and 6).
- Sabadell away matches this season: 3 and 8 corners for, opponents 5 and 1 (total 8 and 9).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's high yellow card average and the intensity of the tactical matchup could push total cards over 4.5.
- Mallorca average yellow cards per match: 2.0, opponent yellow cards not directly available but recent matches show 1-4.
- Sabadell average yellow cards per match: 3.8, opponent yellow cards not directly available but recent matches show 1-3.
- Mallorca home matches this season: 2 and 2 yellow cards for, opponents 2 and 2 (total 4 and 4).
- Sabadell away matches this season: 5 and 3 yellow cards for, opponents 2 and 1 (total 7 and 4).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%