Granada2Mallorca0

HT 1–0Mon 24 Aug 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 39%–61%ShotsShots 14–18On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 7–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 07:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Mallorca are the likely winners based on form and Granada's poor start, but the 2.50 price offers only a marginal edge (42% vs 40% implied).

The biggest variable is the crowd: if restrictions are confirmed, Mallorca's edge grows; if not, Granada's strong home H2H record (won last three home meetings) becomes a real threat. Avoid the heavily juiced under 2.5 goals and first-half under 1.5 markets, as the value has already been priced out.

Context

Stadium damage was reported in non-structural areas and final crowd arrangements remained under review.
- Options considered included a closed-door game or restricted sections because the seismic activity remains ongoing.
- A restricted or empty Nuevo Los Cármenes would weaken Granada's normal home-edge assumptions.
Mallorca won their only league match this season 2-0 at home to Valladolid.
- Granada drew 0-0 away at Oviedo in their opener.
- Granada have lost 4 of their last 6 competitive matches.
Granada won the last three home meetings: 3-2, 4-1 and 1-0.
- Granada scored eight goals across those three home H2Hs.
- Mallorca have not avoided defeat in any of those three matches.
Granada scored 0 goals in their opening league match against Oviedo.
- Granada have scored in only 2 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Granada's last 5 competitive matches averaged 2.0 total goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Mallorca

1.38fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 72%

0.0ppshort

Granada's poor form and the uncertain home environment make a home win less likely, so backing Mallorca or a draw covers the most probable outcomes.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.00fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a tendency to be level at the break, and the early-season context suggests a cautious start.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's stronger recent form and Granada's poor run, combined with the potential disruption of crowd restrictions at Nuevo Los Cármenes, give the visitors the edge.
- Mallorca won their only league match this season 2-0 at home to Valladolid.
- Granada drew 0-0 away at Oviedo in their opener.
- Mallorca's recent form includes a 3-0 win over Oviedo in La Liga and a 2-1 win over Real Madrid.
- Granada have lost 4 of their last 6 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMallorcaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Granada's poor form and the uncertain home environment make a home win less likely, so backing Mallorca or a draw covers the most probable outcomes.
- Granada have won only 2 of their last 10 competitive matches.
- Mallorca have lost only 2 of their last 10 competitive matches.
- Granada's home advantage is uncertain due to possible crowd restrictions after seismic activity.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or MallorcaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be level at the break, and the early-season context suggests a cautious start.
- Granada drew at half-time in their opening match.
- Mallorca drew at half-time in their opening match.
- Granada's last 5 competitive matches: 2 draws, 2 losses, 1 win at half-time.
- Mallorca's last 5 competitive matches: 2 draws, 2 wins, 1 loss at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by a Mallorca breakthrough is plausible given Granada's second-half defensive lapses.
- Mallorca have won 2 of their last 5 competitive matches after being level at half-time.
- Granada have lost 2 of their last 5 competitive matches after being level at half-time.
- Mallorca's stronger squad depth may tell in the second half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/MallorcaEstimated chance22%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown moderate scoring in recent competitive games, and Granada's attacking struggles suggest a low-scoring affair.
- Granada's last 5 competitive matches averaged 2.0 total goals.
- Mallorca's last 5 competitive matches averaged 2.2 total goals.
- Granada scored 0 goals in their opening league match.
- Mallorca kept a clean sheet in their opening league match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Granada's blunt attack and Mallorca's solid defensive start make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Granada failed to score in their opening league match.
- Mallorca kept a clean sheet in their opening league match.
- Granada have scored in only 2 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Mallorca have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring in recent matches.
- Granada's last 5 competitive matches averaged 0.8 first-half goals.
- Mallorca's last 5 competitive matches averaged 1.0 first-half goals.
- Granada were level at half-time in their opening match.
- Mallorca were level at half-time in their opening match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been more productive for both teams, but the overall low-scoring trend tempers confidence.
- Granada's last 5 competitive matches averaged 1.2 second-half goals.
- Mallorca's last 5 competitive matches averaged 1.2 second-half goals.
- Granada scored all their goals in the second half in their last home league match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and the expected cautious tempo should limit corner opportunities.
- Granada's last 5 competitive matches averaged 8.6 total corners.
- Mallorca's last 5 competitive matches averaged 8.8 total corners.
- Granada's home matches last season averaged 8.2 corners.
- Mallorca's away matches last season averaged 8.4 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency to accumulate cards, and a competitive early-season match could see disciplinary action.
- Granada's last 5 competitive matches averaged 5.2 total cards.
- Mallorca's last 5 competitive matches averaged 4.6 total cards.
- Granada received 5 yellow cards in their last home league match.
- Mallorca received 4 yellow cards in their last away league match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Granada has been highly reliable when projected over 4.5 cards

Granada's over 4.5 cards projections have been fulfilled in 3 of 4 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 60.5%, with an expected 2.4 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 3 fulfilled predictions slightly exceeded expectation. The current prediction of 52% is below the historical range of 60-62%, suggesting a lower confidence than past projections.

Recent evidence for Granada4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 May·La Liga 2