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Sabadell

Sabadell - Zamora CF

Zamora CF
🇪🇸 Primera División RFEF - Play OffsFinishedFeatured
Friday, June 19, 2026 at 19:00

Finished Snapshot

FT4-0
FinishedSettled

Halftime

1-0

Predictions

4W · 3L · 0P

Edges

1W · 2L · 0P

Quick Take

Start here for the short read and the strongest priced leans.

Sabadell need a one-goal home win to force extra time, where their higher regular-season finish would promote them without penalties, but the betting value is not in the full-time result. The strongest edge is on first-half under 0.5 goals at 2.63, with a +17-point gap between our 55% estimate and the 38% implied probability, driven by both teams' pattern of cagey starts. The match is likely to be tense and low-scoring, with Zamora defending deep and Sabadell pushing late, making first-half unders and the half-time draw the most attractive plays.

Context 7/10 The playoff format gives Sabadell a structural edge if the tie reaches extra time, and the sold-out home crowd creates a strong motivational asymmetry, while Zamora's first-leg physical fade points to a defensive game plan.
Double ChanceSabadell or Draw75%Fair price
Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.560%+4.4pp
1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUnder 0.555%+17.0pp

Context Signals

The match conditions that matter before looking at the prices.

Social Angles

Fresh chatter, news, and whether it changes the read.

1

English-language lower-league coverage frames this as a landmark night for Zamora CF, with the club chasing a first-ever promotion to Segunda. The main signal is strong emotional momentum and fan energy around the away side rather than team news or market movement.

Compared to our analysis

This broadly fits our read of a tense, low-scoring match rather than challenging it. If Zamora are emotionally locked in, that supports the idea of a stubborn defensive display and makes the cautious first-half and under angles easier to believe, but it does not create value on the away win by itself.

Treat it as mild confirmation for a tight, disciplined Zamora performance, not as a reason to back them outright. Consider it when sizing any Sabadell-heavy position and keep the focus on slow-start markets.

Betting Edges

Markets where the model and price are far enough apart.

Model probabilities

The model view before price and edge filtering.

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 1W
L1-0ZamoravSabadellJun 13, 2026PRI
1 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Sabadell

Sabadell

L0-1ZamoraJun 13PRI
W3-0Real Madrid IIJun 5PRI
L0-2Real Madrid IIMay 29PRI
W2-0TarazonaMay 23PRI
L0-1AntequeraMay 16PRI
L3-4Atlético Madrid IIMay 8PRI
D2-2Real MurciaMay 3PRI
W1-0MarbellaApr 26PRI
W1-0HérculesApr 19PRI
W2-1Sevilla AtleticoApr 11PRI
L1-3Real Betis IIApr 5PRI
D1-1Villarreal IIMar 29PRI
W4-0Europa FcMar 21PRI
D0-0GimnasticMar 13PRI
W3-1AlgecirasMar 7PRI
Zamora CF

Zamora CF

W1-0SabadellJun 13PRI
L0-2Villarreal BMay 31PRI
L0-1Arenas GetxoMay 23PRI
L1-2CacereñoMay 17PRI
W3-1LugoMay 10PRI
W3-0PonferradinaMay 2PRI
W2-1Ourense CFApr 26PRI
W1-0Osasuna IIApr 19PRI
W1-0CF TalaveraApr 12PRI
L2-3Unionistas de SalamancaApr 5PRI
W2-1PontevedraMar 28PRI
D2-2Real Madrid IIMar 21PRI
W1-0ArenteiroMar 14PRI
W2-0Real AvilésMar 8PRI
D1-1GuadalajaraMar 1PRI

Squad & Injuries

Sabadell

31 available
Attackers11
Midfielders7
Defenders8
Goalkeeper5

Zamora CF

25 available
Attackers7
Midfielders6
Defenders9
Goalkeeper3
The second leg of the Primera RFEF promotion final is set for a charged night at the Nova Creu Alta, where Sabadell host Zamora CF trailing 1-0 from the first leg. The tie is delicately poised, but the playoff format gives Sabadell a structural edge: if the aggregate score is level after extra time, the higher regular-season finisher advances without penalties. That team is Sabadell, meaning a one-goal home win in 90 minutes is enough to push the tie into a 120-minute state they benefit from.