Sabadell1Almeria0

HT 0–0Sat 29 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–282%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 14–10On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 16:47 · Europe/Bucharest

The clear value is under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.63, with a +22 point edge based on both teams' slow starts.

Avoid over 0.5 first-half goals and Almería to win outright, as the market overprices those outcomes.

Context

Sabadell are 15th in La Liga 2 with two points from two draws.
They have not scored in either league match, drawing 0-0 away to Castellón on 23 August and 0-0 away to Sporting Gijon on 17 August. This is their first home league game of the season, so the lack of goals is a clear concern against an Almeria side that has already kept one clean sheet.
- Sabadell drew 0-0 with Castellón on 23 August 2026.
- Sabadell drew 0-0 with Sporting Gijon on 17 August 2026.
Sabadell defender Edgar González is unavailable against his parent club Almería because of a loan clause.
His enforced absence removes a defensive option for Ferran Costa and forces a change in Sabadell's back line. The restriction is contractual rather than injury-related, so the selection adjustment is certain.
- EFE reported on 28 August that González cannot play against Almería because of the loan clause.
- RàdioSabadell’s 28 August match preview also listed González as unavailable under the contractual clause.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 09:59 · Europe/BucharestEFE match preview via Infobaewww.infobae.com · 28 Aug 2026RàdioSabadell match previewradiosabadell.b-cdn.net · 28 Aug 2026
Almeria are 8th in La Liga 2 with three points from two games.
They won 3-0 at home to Eldense on 17 August but lost 1-0 away to Tenerife on 23 August. That away defeat shows they have struggled to get results outside their own stadium, which matters here because this match is at Sabadell.
- Almeria lost 1-0 away to Tenerife on 23 August 2026.
- Almeria won 3-0 at home to Eldense on 17 August 2026.
Almería midfielder Gui is out with a meniscus injury expected to keep him sidelined for six to eight weeks.
Gui's absence reduces Almería's central-midfield depth and rotation cover. Mikel Vesga has started in the same position in two of the five recent fixtures with available lineups when Gui did not start, so he is the likely replacement.
- Almería’s head coach said Gui will be on treatment for around one and a half to two months after the meniscus injury.
- García Pimienta described Gui as an important player for the team.
- Gui started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Mikel Vesga started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Gui did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 09:59 · Europe/BucharestUD Almería official press conferencewww.udalmeriasad.com · 27 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Sabadell or Draw

1.54fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65%

0.0ppshort

Sabadell's two 0-0 draws and Almeria's away loss support the home side avoiding defeat, but the odds already price this at 65%.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Sabadell's defensive approach and Almeria's away scoring struggles point to a low-scoring match.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have struggled to score in their respective contexts, making a clean sheet for at least one side likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Almeria's stronger squad and historical edge give them a slight advantage, but Sabadell's defensive resilience makes this a close call.
- Almeria have 3 points from 2 league games (W1 L1), while Sabadell have 2 points from 2 draws.
- Almeria's only away league game this season was a 0-1 loss at Tenerife.
- Sabadell have drawn both league games 0-0, showing defensive solidity but no goals scored.
- H2H: Almeria lead 3 wins to 2 in six meetings, though last meeting was in 2021.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlmeriaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's defensive solidity and Almeria's away struggles support the home side avoiding defeat.
- Sabadell have drawn both league games 0-0, showing they are hard to beat.
- Almeria lost their only away league game this season.
- Sabadell's home record is untested this season (0 games).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSabadell or DrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A cautious start from both sides makes a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Sabadell have been level at half-time in both league games (0-0).
- Almeria were level at half-time in their away league game (0-0).
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full-time draw is plausible given Sabadell's defensive solidity, but Almeria's quality makes it a low-confidence pick.
- Sabadell have drawn both league games 0-0.
- Almeria's away game ended 0-1, but they were level at half-time.
- Historical H2H shows high-scoring games, but current form suggests low scoring.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's defensive approach and Almeria's away scoring struggles point to a low-scoring match.
- Sabadell have scored 0 goals and conceded 0 in 2 league games.
- Almeria's away game this season ended 0-1.
- Sabadell's last 5 competitive matches: 0-0, 0-0, 3-0, 0-1, 3-0 (mixed but low-scoring in league).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have struggled to score in their respective contexts, making a clean sheet for at least one side likely.
- Sabadell have not scored in either league game this season.
- Almeria failed to score in their only away league game.
- Sabadell's defense has kept clean sheets in both league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's defensive record and Almeria's away scoring woes support a home clean sheet.
- Sabadell have kept clean sheets in both league games this season.
- Almeria have scored 0 goals in their only away league game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAlmeria not to scoreEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a goalless first half likely.
- Sabadell's first-half goals average is 0.3, with 0 first-half goals in both league games.
- Almeria's first-half goals average is 0.3, with 0 first-half goals in their away league game.
- Both teams have shown a tendency to start slowly.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half is unlikely to see many goals given the teams' scoring struggles.
- Sabadell's second-half goals in league: 0 in 2 games.
- Almeria's second-half goals in away league game: 0.
- Overall low scoring patterns for both teams.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and a low-scoring game may reduce corner opportunities.
- Sabadell average 5.5 corners per game, Almeria average 4.7.
- Sabadell's recent league games: 3 and 8 corners.
- Almeria's recent league games: 7, 7, 7, 2, 5, 2, 8, 5, 4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's high foul and card counts could push the total cards over the line.
- Sabadell average 4 yellow cards per game, Almeria average 2.4.
- Sabadell's recent league games: 5 and 3 yellow cards.
- Almeria's recent league games: 0, 1, 1, 0, 4, 4, 2, 5, 3, 4.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%