Girona00 – 1Mallorca1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Two relegation-threatened sides under cautious managers, with recent H2H low-scoring and Mallorca's poor away scoring rate, points to a tight low-goal fixture (Core 5: Motivation/Stakes + Tactical Matchup).

• Girona last 5: 1.0 GF avg, 1.4 GA avg — modest scoring output
• Mallorca last 5: 1.6 GF avg but only 0.5 1H goals avg; cautious starts
• Recent H2H: 1-0 (Jan 2026), 1-0 (May 2025), 2-1 (Dec 2024) — 3 of last 3 went under 3.5 with 2 going under 2.5
• Girona average just 1.4 goals per game (last 10) and Mallorca have only 14 GF in 16 away matches (0.88 GF/game away)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Mallorca's away-scoring weakness (0.88 GF/game) plus a defensively-set new manager raises the probability of one team failing to score, though Girona's leakiness keeps confidence LOW (Core 5: Structural Home/Away Edge).

• Mallorca scored only 14 goals in 16 away matches (0.88 per game) and were blanked or scored ≤1 in most away trips
• Last 3 H2H: 1-0, 1-0, 2-1 — BTTS hit only once in last 3
• Girona kept just 1 clean sheet in last 5 (vs Villarreal 1-0) but Mallorca's away attack is weakest in division-bottom tier
• Demichelis prioritising defensive structure suggests Mallorca will sit deep and concede chances rather than create

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both sides start matches very cautiously (combined 1H goals avg ~1.0) and the relegation stakes will reinforce slow openings (Core 5: Tactical Matchup + Motivation/Stakes).

• Girona average just 0.5 1H goals scored, 0.2 1H goals conceded (last 10)
• Mallorca average 0.5 1H goals scored, 0.4 1H goals conceded (last 10)
• Combined 1H goal expectation ~1.0–1.3 — well below 1.5
• In last 5 Girona matches, 4 of 5 first halves were 0-0 at HT

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

High-stakes relegation match between two teams with elevated discipline numbers (especially Mallorca's 2.6 YC/game) typically generates above-average card counts (Core 5: Motivation/Stakes).

• Mallorca average 2.6 yellow cards per game (last 10) — among highest in La Liga
• Girona average 1.4 yellow cards per game; combined avg ~4.0 yellows before considering match-specific tension
• Both teams averaged 0.5 red cards per game in last 10 — high dismissal rate
• Six-pointer relegation context historically inflates card counts; Mallorca fouls avg 11.8/game

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined corner averages (~8.3) sit below 9.5 and the cautious tactical context further suppresses the count, though variance keeps confidence LOW (Core 5: Tactical Matchup).

• Girona corners avg 4.1/game (last 10), Mallorca 4.2/game — combined ~8.3 baseline
• Mallorca opponent corners avg suggests low defensive pressure shape under Demichelis
• Girona last 5 corner counts: 4, 3, 1, 7, 2 — heavily skewed below 5
• Recent H2H low-tempo, ground-defensive games typically suppress corner counts

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined SoT averages sit just below the line, and Girona's recent declining shot quality plus Mallorca's defensive setup support the under (Core 5: Tactical Matchup).

• Girona shots on target avg 4.2/game (last 10), Mallorca 4.0/game — combined ~8.2
• Mallorca conservative away with only 14 goals in 16 trips signals low SoT volume on the road
• Girona last 5 SoT counts: 4, 2, 2, 2, 0 — trending well below average
• Demichelis' defensive emphasis likely reduces both teams' attacking output