Elfsborg1Kalmar FF0

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 13–16On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 3–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 00:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Elfsborg are strong favourites at home against a poor Kalmar away side, but the 1.80 match winner price offers no value.

The best edge is the double chance (Elfsborg or Draw) at 1.25, with a secondary look at second-half Over 1.5 goals at 2.40.

Context

Kalmar FF are 13th in the Allsvenskan with 19 points, only one point above the relegation playoff place.
Their away record is the worst in the league: no wins, two draws, and eight defeats in ten matches, with seven goals scored and eighteen conceded. This pattern suggests they struggle to control matches away from home, and Elfsborg's solid home form makes an away win unlikely. However, Kalmar did draw their last away match 0-0 at Vasteras SK on 23 August, so they can occasionally grind out a point.
- Kalmar FF away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses in 10 matches.
- They have scored 7 goals and conceded 18 away from home.
- Most recent away match: 0-0 draw at Vasteras SK on 23 August 2026.
Elfsborg sit 6th in the Allsvenskan with 31 points, comfortably mid-table.
At home they have five wins, three draws, and two losses, scoring 16 goals and conceding only nine. Their recent home form includes a 2-0 win over Degerfors on 29 August and a 3-0 win over Vasteras SK on 14 August. This solid home record contrasts sharply with Kalmar's away struggles, making Elfsborg likely to control the match.
- Elfsborg home record: 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in 10 matches.
- They have scored 16 goals and conceded 9 at home.
- Recent home wins: 2-0 vs Degerfors (29 Aug), 3-0 vs Vasteras SK (14 Aug).
Kalmar FF are 13th with 19 points, only one point above the relegation playoff spot.
Their last five league results are LLDLL, with the most recent being a 1-0 home loss to Djurgarden on 7 September. The 4-0 home loss to Hammarby on 16 August showed defensive fragility. This poor run increases pressure on the team and suggests they may struggle to compete against a mid-table side like Elfsborg.
- Kalmar FF last five league matches: LLDLL.
- Lost 1-0 at home to Djurgarden on 7 September 2026.
- Lost 4-0 at home to Hammarby on 16 August 2026.
Elfsborg are 6th in the Allsvenskan with 31 points.
Their last five league results are LWDWW, with the only loss coming away at Brommapojkarna on 6 September. The wins include a 2-0 home victory over Degerfors and a 3-0 home win over Vasteras SK. This positive run suggests they are in good shape to face a struggling Kalmar side.
- Elfsborg last five league matches: LWDWW.
- Won 2-0 at home vs Degerfors on 29 August 2026.
- Won 3-0 at home vs Vasteras SK on 14 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's strong home form and Kalmar's dreadful away record, combined with the hosts' superior recent results, make them clear favourites.
- Elfsborg home record: 5W 3D 2L, 16 goals for, 9 against in 10 matches.
- Kalmar away record: 0W 2D 8L, 7 goals for, 18 against in 10 matches.
- Elfsborg recent form: LWDWW; Kalmar recent form: LLDLL.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonElfsborgEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg are highly unlikely to lose at home given Kalmar's away struggles, making the double chance a strong play.
- Elfsborg home record: 5W 3D 2L (80% unbeaten).
- Kalmar away record: 0W 2D 8L (20% unbeaten).
- Elfsborg have lost only 2 of 10 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonElfsborg or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's tendency to start strongly at home gives them a slight edge in the first half.
- Elfsborg led at half-time in 47% of matches.
- Kalmar trailed at half-time in 20% of matches.
- Elfsborg average 0.7 first-half goals for vs Kalmar's 0.5 first-half goals against.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostElfsborgEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg's home advantage and Kalmar's away struggles are likely to be more pronounced in the second half.
- Elfsborg have a positive second-half goal difference at home.
- Kalmar have a negative second-half goal difference away.
- Elfsborg's superior squad depth should show in the latter stages.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonElfsborgEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg are capable of leading at half-time and holding on for the win, but the probability is moderate.
- Elfsborg led at half-time in 47% of matches and won 40% overall.
- Kalmar trailed at half-time in 20% and lost 55% overall.
- Elfsborg's home record shows they often control matches from the start.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostElfsborg/ElfsborgEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg could dominate both halves, but this is a less likely outcome given the competitive nature of the league.
- Elfsborg have won both halves in a few home matches.
- Kalmar have lost both halves in several away matches.
- Elfsborg's first-half and second-half goal differences are positive at home.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostElfsborgEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elfsborg are unlikely to be trailing at half-time at home, making the double chance a safe option.
- Elfsborg led at half-time in 47% and drew in 33% of matches.
- Kalmar trailed at half-time in only 20% of matches.
- Elfsborg's home first-half record is solid.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonElfsborg or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits and recent head-to-head meetings suggest a high-scoring encounter.
- Elfsborg home matches average 2.5 total goals (16 for, 9 against in 10).
- Kalmar away matches average 2.5 total goals (7 for, 18 against in 10).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3, 4, 3, 3, 4 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown the ability to score while also conceding regularly in their respective home/away splits.
- Elfsborg have scored in 8 of 10 home matches.
- Kalmar have scored in 6 of 10 away matches.
- Elfsborg have conceded in 6 of 10 home matches; Kalmar have conceded in 9 of 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first-half goal averages are modest, but the attacking tendencies of both sides could produce an early goal or two.
- Elfsborg average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.3 against.
- Kalmar average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.2 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as both teams push for results, especially with Kalmar's defensive vulnerabilities.
- Elfsborg average 0.7 second-half goals for and 0.7 against.
- Kalmar average 0.6 second-half goals for and 0.8 against.
- Combined second-half goal average is 1.4 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown the ability to score early, but the probability is low due to the defensive focus in the opening period.
- Elfsborg average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.3 against.
- Kalmar average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- Both teams have scored in the first half in some recent matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance30%