Botev Vratsa0Levski Sofia0

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 14:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1029%

Edges1–614%

PossPossession 26%–74%ShotsShots 4–9On targetOn target 2–1CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 17:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Levski Sofia are strong favourites to win, but the best value lies in backing 'No' on Botev Vratsa clean sheet at 1.67 (model edge +25pts) and Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 (+7pts).

Avoid the double chance and first-half Over 0.5, as their prices offer no cushion.

Context

Levski Sofia sit first in the First League with 24 points from eight matches.
Their perfect record includes three away wins with seven goals scored and three conceded. This strong start gives them a clear advantage against a Botev Vratsa side that has lost five of eight league games. However, Levski's recent Super Cup loss to CSKA Sofia shows they can be beaten in one-off matches.
- Levski Sofia have won all 8 league matches, scoring 21 and conceding 4.
- Away record: 3 wins, 7 goals for, 3 against.
- Most recent league match: 1-0 home win over CSKA 1948 on 2026-09-05.
Botev Vratsa are 10th in the First League with 7 points from 8 matches.
They have conceded 17 goals, the second-most in the league, and their home record is mixed with one win, one draw, and one loss. Facing the league leaders, their defensive struggles could be exposed. However, they did beat Botev Plovdiv 1-0 at home on 2026-08-24, showing they can compete at home.
- Botev Vratsa have 7 points from 8 matches, with 2 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses.
- They have conceded 17 goals, second-most in the league.
- Home record: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, with 2 goals scored and 4 conceded.
The teams have met five times since 2024, with Levski Sofia winning two and drawing two.
In the most recent league meeting on 2026-02-07, Levski Sofia won 3-1 at home. Botev Vratsa's last home league match against Levski ended 0-0 on 2025-08-17. This history suggests Levski have the edge, but Botev Vratsa have managed a draw at home before.
- 2026-02-07: Levski Sofia 3-1 Botev Vratsa (First League).
- 2025-08-17: Botev Vratsa 0-0 Levski Sofia (First League).
- 2024-11-30: Botev Vratsa 0-2 Levski Sofia (First League).
Botev Vratsa goalkeeper M. Orlinov has started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, while L. Vasilev has started 4 in the same position.
Orlinov is reported close to returning and expected to start against Levski, which would change Botev's goalkeeper from the side that played at Septemvri. That could alter defensive communication and distribution, though the report is not confirmed.
- Novsport listed Marin Orlinov as unavailable before Botev Vratsa played Septemvri on 4 September.
- Gazzetta reported that Orlinov had missed four matches through injury, was close to full recovery and was expected to start against Levski.
- M. Orlinov started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- L. Vasilev started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when M. Orlinov did not start.
ReportedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:35 · Europe/BucharestNovsport team news before Septemvri vs Botev Vratsawww.novsport.com · 4 Sep 2026Gazzetta report on Orlinov's recoverygazzetta.bg · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's perfect league record and superior squad quality, combined with Botev's relegation struggle, make an away win the most likely outcome.
- Levski Sofia are 1st with 24 points from 8 matches (8W 0D 0L), while Botev Vratsa are 10th with 7 points (2W 1D 5L).
- Levski have won all 3 away league matches this season, scoring 7 and conceding 3.
- Botev Vratsa have lost 4 of 5 away matches, but this match is at home where they have 1W 1D 1L.
- Levski's recent form is WWWWW, while Botev's is WLWLL.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLevski SofiaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's unbeaten league run and Botev's poor home form make the double chance of draw or away win very safe.
- Levski have not lost in the league this season (8W 0D 0L).
- Botev Vratsa have only 1 win in 3 home matches.
- H2H last 5: Levski won 2, drew 2, lost 1 (including friendlies).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Levski SofiaEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levski's superior first-half performance makes them the most likely half-time leader.
- Levski led at half-time in 53% of matches; Botev led in 29%.
- Levski average 0.7 first-half goals vs Botev's 0.4.
- Levski's first-half goal difference is +0.4 (0.7 scored, 0.3 conceded).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLevski SofiaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levski's stronger second-half scoring and defensive record give them the edge in the second period.
- Levski average 1.2 second-half goals vs Botev's 0.9.
- Levski's second-half goal difference is +0.6 (1.2 scored, 0.6 conceded).
- Botev's second-half goal difference is -0.1 (0.9 scored, 1.0 conceded).
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostLevski SofiaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levski's ability to lead early and maintain control makes HT/FT Levski/Levski a strong possibility.
- Levski led at half-time in 53% of matches and won 100% of league matches.
- Botev Vratsa trailed at half-time in 21% and lost 62.5% of league matches.
- Levski's first-half and second-half dominance support a straight win.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLevski Sofia/Levski SofiaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levski's dominance could lead to winning both halves, but it is a less common outcome.
- Levski won both halves in 3 of their last 5 league matches (estimated from half-time results).
- Botev Vratsa lost both halves in 2 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostLevski SofiaEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's strong first-half record makes draw or Levski at half-time very likely.
- Levski led at half-time in 53% of matches and drew at half-time in 40% (trailed only 7%).
- Botev Vratsa led at half-time in 29%, drew 50%, trailed 21%.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Levski SofiaEstimated chance75%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's attacking strength and Botev's defensive vulnerability suggest a match with at least three goals.
- Levski average 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match.
- Botev Vratsa average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match.
- Levski's away matches average 3.3 total goals (7 scored, 3 conceded in 3 games).
- Botev's home matches average 2.0 total goals (2 scored, 4 conceded in 3 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Botev's ability to score at home and Levski's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Botev Vratsa have scored in 6 of their last 8 league matches.
- Levski have conceded in 3 of their last 5 matches across all competitions.
- Botev scored 3 goals in their most recent league match (away win).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's tendency to score early and Botev's occasional first-half goals make a first-half goal likely.
- Levski average 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- Botev Vratsa average 0.4 first-half goals per match.
- Levski led at half-time in 53% of matches; Botev led in 29%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Levski average 1.2 second-half goals per match (total 1.9 - 0.7 first half).
- Botev Vratsa average 0.9 second-half goals per match (total 1.3 - 0.4 first half).
- Combined second-half average is 2.1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both teams make both teams scoring in the first half unlikely.
- Levski average 0.3 first-half goals conceded.
- Botev Vratsa average 0.4 first-half goals scored.
- Combined first-half scoring is low, with both teams scoring in first half unlikely.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Botev's scoring record at home makes a Levski clean sheet less likely.
- Levski kept clean sheets in 5 of 8 league matches (62.5%).
- Botev Vratsa scored in 6 of 8 league matches (75%).
- Botev scored 3 goals in their last match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBotev Vratsa to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's consistent scoring makes a Botev clean sheet highly unlikely.
- Botev Vratsa kept clean sheets in only 2 of 8 league matches (25%).
- Levski scored in all 8 league matches (100%).
- Levski average 1.9 goals per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostLevski Sofia to scoreEstimated chance85%